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中国航运市场特点 与 SCFI 衍生品应用 Characteristics of China’s Shipping Market

中国航运市场特点 与 SCFI 衍生品应用 Characteristics of China’s Shipping Market and Application for SCFI derivatives. 张页 Zhang Ye Nov, 2011. 上海航运交易所 Shanghai Shipping Exchange. Container Transportation and Application for SCFI derivatives. 集装箱运输与 SCFI 衍生品应用. 1. 中国集装箱运输市场特点

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中国航运市场特点 与 SCFI 衍生品应用 Characteristics of China’s Shipping Market

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  1. 中国航运市场特点 与SCFI衍生品应用 Characteristics of China’s Shipping Market and Application for SCFI derivatives 张页 Zhang Ye Nov, 2011 上海航运交易所 Shanghai Shipping Exchange

  2. Container Transportation and Application for SCFI derivatives 集装箱运输与SCFI衍生品应用 1 中国集装箱运输市场特点 Characteristics of China’s Container Shipping Market 2 班轮运输市场风向标——CCFI/SCFI Barometer of Liner Service Market——CCFI/SCFI 3 SCFI及其运价衍生品 SCFI and its Freight Derivatives

  3. Characteristics of China’s Container Shipping Market 1 中国集装箱运输市场 中国经济外贸快速发展，成为世界最大的集装箱货源国With fast development of foreign economy, China is now the nation that generates the most containerized goods in the world 运输需求 Transport Demand 2010年，外贸进出口额29727.6亿美元，增长34.7％。

  4. Characteristics of China’s Container Shipping Market 中国集装箱运输市场特点 1 运力配置Deployment of Carrying Capacity 中国航运企业经营的集装箱船队发展相对滞后 The container fleet operated by Chinese shipping enterprises relatively lag behind.

  5. 中国集装箱运输市场特点 Characteristics of China’s Container Shipping Market 1 经济发展快，水运量多，中国成为了最大货源国 China has the most containers because of rapid economy growth and huge water transport volume 市场特征 Market Features 2011年1～9月份，我国港口集装箱吞吐量12117.37万TEU，同比增长12.6%。 From Jan. to Sep.2011, China’s port container throughput reached 121.17 million TEUs with y-o-y growth of 12.6%. 中国港口集装箱吞吐量占世界的比重超过30％。 China’s port container throughput accounts for over 30% of world total.

  6. Characteristics of China’s Container Shipping Market 中国集装箱运输市场特点 1 经济发展快，水运量多，中国成为了最大货源国 China has the most containers because of rapid economy growth and huge water transport volume 市场特征 Market Features 中国有6个港口进入世界集装箱港口前十位。 Six container ports in China rank Top 10 in the world.

  7. 中国集装箱运输市场特点 Characteristics of China’s Container Shipping Market 1 航运服务逆差，本国船承运比例低 deficit of shipping service, low ratio of goods carried by Chinese fleet 市场特征 Market Features

  8. 入世十年间， 中国服务贸易总额：719亿美元 3624亿美元 占世界服务贸易出口额中的比重：2.3% 4.6%， 作为我国服务贸易重点领域之一的国际货代物流行业：1700多家 2.5万多家 Characteristics of China’s Container Shipping Market 1 中国集装箱运输市场特点 市场特征 Market Features 中小型货代企业众多、集中度极低。 A huge number of medium- and small-sized freight forwarders but less centralized • 据SSE不完全统计，2010年上海口岸： • 前二十位船公司出口重箱1093.6万TEU，占比近85%。 • 前五十位无船承运人出口集装箱170.9万TEU，占比不到15%。 • 我国80%的进出口贸易货物运输和中转业务（其中，散杂货占70%，集装箱货占90%）是通过国际货运代理企业完成的。

  9. Container Transportation and Application for SCFI derivatives 集装箱运输与SCFI衍生品应用 1 中国集装箱运输市场特点 Characteristics of China’s Container Shipping Market 2 班轮运输市场风向标——CCFI/SCFI Barometer of Liner Service Market——CCFI/SCFI 3 SCFI及其运价衍生品 SCFI and its Freight Derivatives

  10. Barometer of Liner Service Market——CCFI/SCFI 2 班轮运输市场风向标—CCFI/SCFI 中国出口集装箱运价指数：综合指数和11条分航线运价指数 CCFI: 1 composite index and 11 individual routes indices CCFI 指数 体系 Index System 上海出口集装箱运价指数：综合指数和15条分航线运价 SCFI: 1 composite index and 15 individual routes indices 10

  11. Barometer of Liner Service Market——CCFI/SCFI 2 班轮运输市场风向标—CCFI/SCFI CCFI CCFI CCFI SCFI CCFI CCFI VS CCFI反映总体运费水平 CCFI for overall freight level SCFI反映即期市场变化 SCFI for volatility of spot market 小结：ccfi的波动性相对较小，且滞后。 CCFI is less volatile and real-time. 11

  12. Barometer of Liner Service Market——CCFI/SCFI 2 班轮运输市场风向标—CCFI/SCFI CCFI 12

  13. Barometer of Liner Service Market——CCFI/SCFI 2 班轮运输市场风向标—CCFI/SCFI CCFI CCFI & World Economy Growth 13

  14. Barometer of Liner Service Market——CCFI/SCFI 2 班轮运输市场风向标—CCFI/SCFI CCFI 14

  15. Barometer of Liner Service Market——CCFI/SCFI 2 班轮运输市场风向标—CCFI/SCFI SCFI 15

  16. Barometer of Liner Service Market——CCFI/SCFI 2 班轮运输市场风向标—CCFI/SCFI SCFI 小结：SCFI与德鲁里运价指数走势基本吻合，且更贴近市场变化。 SCFI goes in line with Drewry index, more close to market change 16

  17. Container transportation and Application for SCFI derivatives 集装箱运输与SCFI衍生品应用 1 中国集装箱运输市场特点 Characteristics of China’s Container Shipping Market 2 班轮运输市场风向标——CCFI/SCFI Barometer of Liner Service Market——CCFI/SCFI 3 SCFI及其运价衍生品 SCFI and its Freight Derivatives

  18. SCFI and its Freight Derivatives SCFI及其运价衍生品 3 现货市场运价波动剧烈，企业利润微薄，抗运价波动的能力差，需要市场透明，规避风险 The spot market needs to be more transparent due to drastic volatility of spot market, low profit and weak anti-risk power. 市场特征 Market Features 7个月内运价下跌了42％ 42 percent decrease in seven months 5个月内运价下跌了将近40％ nearly 40 percent decrease in five months 7个月内运价上涨1.1倍1.1 times increase in seven months 5个月内运价上涨超过75% Over 75 percent increase in five months 3个月内运价下跌超过40% Over 40 percent decrease in three months 3个月内运价上涨接近70% nearly 70 percent decrease in three months 3个月内运价上涨超过90% Over 90 percent increase in three months 7个月内运价下跌超过50% Over 50 percent decrease in seven months

  19. 常见问答 FAQ 17 SCFI and its Freight Derivatives 3 SCFI及其运价衍生品 运价指数与运价报备的区别 Difference Between Freight Index and Freight Filing

  20. SCFI and its Freight Derivatives 3 SCFI及其运价衍生品 SCFI是为适应国际集装箱运价衍生品交易需要，在原有CCFI基础上发布的直观性更强、时效性更高、灵敏度更好的指数。SCFI is to meet the needs of the international container freight derivatives trading, it’s a more intuitive, timely, higher sensitivity index issued on the basis of the original CCFI. 为什么SCFI适合集装箱远期运价交易 Why SCFI fits for forward transaction? • 代表性：2010年，上海港外贸出口集装箱量1133万TEU，占中国24.5％ ;而中国集装箱吞吐量占亚洲1/2 、全球1/4强。因此，上海出口集装箱运价对全球集装箱运价的代表性是毋庸置疑的。 • Representative: In 2010, container exports volume of Shanghai port reached 11.33 million TEU, accounting for 24.5% of China; and China’s container throughput account for 1 / 2 of Asia, 1 / 4 of the global. Therefore, SCFI is the representative of the global freight, which is beyond doubt. • 覆盖性：SCFI虽然涉及的CIF货量仅占市场20％，但其涉及到的承托双方数量却占市场的80％，包括成千上万的中小航商和中小货主。基于SCFI的运价衍生品为“广大”的中小承运人、托运人和货代提供了可以稳定经营的风险管理工具。 • Coverage: Although the volume of the CIF accounted for only 20%, but the number of parties involved accounted for 80%, including thousands of small and medium sized shipping companies, and small shippers. SCFI-based freight derivatives can provide a risk management tools for of the "majority" of small carriers, shippers and freight forwarders. • 指导性：FOB运价往往是根据CIF市场的形势而确定的，因此CIF运价对市场的反应比FOB运价更快、更灵敏、更先行，对远期市场更具指导性。 • Guidance: FOB tariffs are often determined on the base of CIF market situation, so CIF freight is faster, more sensitive, more advance than FOB freight to the market reaction, and can provide more guidance on the forward market

  21. SCFI and its Freight Derivatives 3 SCFI及其运价衍生品 SSEFC航运运价中远期交易 • 交易更快捷Transactions more efficient • 透明度更高，信息更对称Greater transparency, information is more symmetrical • 交易成本更低Lower transaction costs

  22. SCFI and its Freight Derivatives 3 SCFI及其运价衍生品 SSEFC航运运价中远期交易 风险管理机制 Riskmanagementmechanism

  23. SCFI and its Freight Derivatives 3 SCFI及其运价衍生品 SSEFC航运运价中远期交易 6月28日 上海航运运价交易有限公司正式开业

  24. SCFI and its Freight Derivatives 3 SCFI及其运价衍生品 SSEFC航运运价中远期交易 航运运价电子交易合同

  25. SCFI及其运价衍生品 SCFI and its Freight Derivatives 3 SSEFC航运运价中远期交易 航运运价电子交易合同

  26. 自6月28日开市以来，欧洲、美西两条航线主力合约持仓量分别达到5万箱和4万箱；开户交易商上千家；银行类会员、航运物流类会员、投资类会员总计30余家。自6月28日开市以来，欧洲、美西两条航线主力合约持仓量分别达到5万箱和4万箱；开户交易商上千家；银行类会员、航运物流类会员、投资类会员总计30余家。 Since June 28, the contract positions of European and USWC route up to 5 million TEU and 4 million TEU respectively; thousands of dealers take part in trading; bank members, shipping and logistics members, investment members totaled more than 30. SCFI及其运价衍生品 SCFI and its Freight Derivatives 3 SSEFC航运运价中远期交易 1月合约日K线图

  27. 运价有波动，套期可保值 投机有风险，入市需谨慎！ Hedging for freight volatility, Cautious of speculation! 谢谢大家！ Thank you! 上海航运交易所 Shanghai Shipping Exchange

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