Update on Global Challenges
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Update on Global Challenges Bled Forum 2007. Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project www.stateofthefuture.org. Just 25 years ago, there was no Internet and World Wide Web. In the year 1982 : What Ministries of Education had Internet and personal computers in their long-range plans?

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Update on Global Challenges Bled Forum 2007

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Update on global challenges bled forum 2007

Update on Global Challenges

Bled Forum 2007

Jerome C. Glenn

The Millennium Project

www.stateofthefuture.org


Just 25 years ago there was no internet and world wide web

Just 25 years ago, there was no Internet and World Wide Web

In the year 1982:

  • What Ministries of Education had Internet and personal computers in their long-range plans?

  • Would economists have believed that millions of people would search billions of pages in less than one second, and then do it again in the next few seconds AT NO additional cost?


Just 25 years ago there was no

Just 25 years ago, there was no

  • European Union, WTO, ICC, or NATO in Eastern Europe

  • Talk of globalization, genetically modified food, stem cells, or AIDS pandemic

  • Asymmetrical warfare, and

  • … and most believed that a nuclear WW IIIwould have destroyed the world by now


The future will be more than most people we think

The Future will be more…than most people we think

  • Factor to consider: Self-fulfilling Moore’s law and R&D Managers

  • The factors that made such changes are changing faster now, than 25 years ago

  • Therefore, the next 25 years should make the speed of change over the last 25 years seem slow

  • This acceleration and volume of change…SHOULD change what we believe is possible for the next 25 years


What we think is far out today could be very possible by 2032

What we think is “Far Out” today, could be very possible by 2032.

  • The race to connect anything not yet connected

  • Lines of genetic code written like software code

  • More than half the world spends more than half its time in cyberspace being more “real” that 3D reality

  • Life extension begins to look like a realistic option

  • Improving intelligence as central educational objective.

  • "just in time knowledge” becomes normal

  • Nano, bio, infotech and cognitive science (NBIC)

  • A global brain(s) emerging from Internet

  • …evolving into Conscious-Technology


Update on global challenges bled forum 2007

Conscious-Technology

(Post-Information Age)

When the distinction between these two trends becomes blurred, we will have reached the Post-Information Age

HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS

BUILT ENVIRONMENT

BECOMING INTELLIGENT

2030

2015

2000

1985


Simplification of history and an alternative future

Simplification of History and an Alternative Future


Millennium project global challenges assessment

Millennium Project Global Challenges Assessment

1996-97

15 Issues

with

131 Actions

182 Developments

1999-2007

Global Challenges

  • General description

  • Regional views

  • Actions

  • Indicators

15 Challenges

with

213 Actions

1998-99

&

Distilled Into

1997-98

15 Opportunities

with

213 Actions

180 Developments

2000-2007

State of the Future Index (SOFI)

National SOFIs

SOFI Real Time Delphi


Update on global challenges bled forum 2007

15 Global Challenges

How can sustainable development be achieved for all?

1

How can sustainable development be achieved for all?

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

2

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

15

How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

3

How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

4

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

14

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

5

How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

13

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

6

How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

12

How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?

How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

7

11

How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?

How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

10

8

How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?

How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?

How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?

How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?

9


Update on global challenges bled forum 2007

Report Card for the world

  • Where are we winning?

  • GDP per capita grew

  • Calories per capita increased

  • Life expectancy grew

  • Literacy grew

  • Infant Mortality dropped

  • Access to Fresh Water improved

  • Access to Health Care improved

  • School Enrollment Improved

  • Where are we losing?

  • CO2 emissions grew

  • Unemployment increased

  • Forest Lands dropped

  • Rich Poor Gap grew

  • AIDs Deaths grew

  • Developing Country Debt increased

  • Terrorist Attacks more diverse


Europe s aging population high unemployment and social benefits a suggestion

Europe’s Aging population, high unemployment and social benefits – a suggestion…

  • Transition from seeking jobs to seeking markets - how:

  • Identify and create a community of ‘retired’ Europeans making a living via Internet who help in the transition

  • Collective Intelligence increases choices for “second chance” or “retired” people AND second chance people will increase the collective intelligence.


Suggestions for european initiatives

Suggestions for European Initiatives

  • International Science & Technology Organization (ISTO)

  • Global S&T Fund for necessary research not likely by other means (Carbon Sequestration, Space Solar Power, etc)


Is a new kind of think tank

The Millennium Project

... is a new kind of think tank


It is global

It is Global...

  • Geographically

    • Institutionally

      • Disciplinarily

        • Research focus


Update on global challenges bled forum 2007

UN

Universities

Organizations

Governments

Corporations

NGOs

Millennium Project

… May become a TransInstitution


Update on global challenges bled forum 2007

Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in:

Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

Helsinki

Montréal/Kinston

Berlin

London

Calgary

Moscow

Paris

Prague

Seoul

Washington, DC

Rome

Baku

Silicon Valley

Tehran

Tel Aviv

Tokyo

Istanbul

Mexico City

Cairo

Beijing

New Delhi

Kuwait

Madurai

Caracas

Cyber Node

Sao Paulo

Brisbane/

Pretoria/Johannesburg

Buenos Aires

Sydney


125 pages in print 5 400 pages in the cd

125 Pages

in Print

5,400 Pages

in the CD


Futures research methodology v2 0

Futures Research Methodology V2.0

1. Introduction & Overview15. Simulation and Games

2.Environmental Scanning16. Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Int.

3.Delphi 17. Normative Forecasting

4.Futures Wheel18. S&T Road Mapping

5.Trend Impact Analysis19. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)

6.Cross-Impact Analysis 20. Text Mining for Technology Foresight

7.Structural Analysis21. Agent Modeling

8.Systems Perspectives22. SOFI

9.Decision Modeling 23. SOFI Software

10.Statistical Modeling 24. The Multiple Perspective Concept

11.Technological Sequence Analysis25. Tool Box for Scenario Planning

12.Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis26. Causal Layered Analysis

13.Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios27. Integration, Comparisons, and

14.Participatory Methods Frontiers of Futures Research Methods


For further information

For Further Information:

Jerome C. Glenn, Director

Millennium Project

American Council for the UN University

[email protected]

WWW.ACUNU.ORG


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