APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming
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APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming , China 19 May 2014 2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6 th Edition Brantley Liddle Vice President, APERC. The APEC Energy Outlook. The 5 th Edition was published February 2013 T he 6 th Edition is being developed

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APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming , China 19 May 2014

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Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

APERC Workshop at EWG47, Kunming, China

19 May 2014

2. Toward APEC Energy Demand & Supply Outlook 6th Edition

Brantley Liddle

Vice President, APERC


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

The APEC Energy Outlook

The 5th Edition was published February 2013

The 6th Edition is being developed

Anticipated publication in late 2015


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

Outlook 6thEdition Description

  • A 28 year look ahead (2012-2040) assuming business-as-usual and several alternative cases

  • Project energy supply by fuel and demand by sector, electricity generation by fuel; installed generation capacity, CO2 emissions, energy intensity

  • Published in two volumes:

    • Volume 1: Sector discussions

    • Volume 2: Individual economy discussions


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

Outlook Model Structure

  • KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  • Macroeconomic Data

  • Oil Prices

  • Domestic Fossil Fuel Production

  • Biofuel Content of Liquid Fuels

  • Own-Use Rates

  • Heat Production Market Shares and Efficiencies by Fuel

  • CO2 Emission Factors

  • RESULTS TABLES

  • Macroeconomic Data

  • Energy Production and Imports

  • Own Use and Transformation Losses

  • Final Energy Demand

  • Energy Intensities

  • CO2 Emissions

Industrial and

Non-Energy Demand Model

Transport Demand Model

Other Sector (Residential/Commercial /Agricultural) Demand Model

Electricity Supply Model


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

Outlook Model Enhancements Finished/Nearly Finished

  • Electricity Supply Model

    • Dr.AishahMohd Isa & Takashi Otsuki

  • Transportation Fleet Model

    • Dr.AtitTippichai

  • Investment Model

    • ParminderRaeewal

  • Residential, Commercial, & other Demand

    • Dr.Yeong-ChuanLin


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

Outlook Work in Progress

  • Industry Model

    • Kensuke Kanekiyo & Tran Thi Lien Phuong

  • Database Management

    • Naomi Wynn & Dr.Yeong-ChuanLin


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

Outlook-Related Work in Progress

  • Topical Work

    • Barriers to Shale Gas Development

    • Barriers to Geothermal Electricity Development

    • Benefits of Electricity Interconnection in Northeast Asia

  • Cooperative Work with IEEJ

    • Nuclear, Fossil Fuel, & Renewables Projections

    • Bottom-up Residential & Commercial Demand Model


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

Preliminary Results: Electricity Model BAU

Mexico

Philippines


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

Preliminary Results: Vehicle Stock


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

Preliminary Results: Energy Demand


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

Preliminary Alternative Transport Case

  • Fuel economy of new vehicles improves 1-3% p.a.

  • High energy efficient vehicles promoted

  • Efficient driving promoted


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

BAU vs Alternative Case

China

Thailand

28.1%

26.5%


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

BAU vs Alternative Case

Vietnam

Indonesia

14.4%

12.9%


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

6th Edition Potential Alternative Cases

  • Analyze impact of specific policies, goals

    • Energy/fuel efficiency standard (vehicles & buildings)

    • Alternative urban development

    • Carbon tax/price

    • Electricity/Gas interconnection in Northeast Asia

    • Increased shares for bio-fuels


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

6th Edition Potential Alternative Cases

  • Analyze effort need to reach particular targets

    • Energy intensity

    • Renewable energy

    • Two degree CO2 emissions

    • Greater energy security (lower fossil fuel import ratios)

  • High Shale Gas/Natural Gas Case

  • High Renewables Case

  • High Nuclear Case


Aperc workshop at ewg47 kunming china 19 may 2014

Schedule for Outlook 6th Edition

  • Northern Summer 2014 – Model results for BAU scenario

  • Early Fall 2014 – Alternative scenarios designed

  • Late 2014 – Models results for alternative cases finalized

  • October-November 2015– Outlook 6th Edition published


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