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Observations on: The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition. Lorcan Dempsey VP Research and Chief Strategist CNI Spring 2004 Task Force Meeting Alexandria, April 16 2004. Overview. The library community?. The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan.

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Observations on the 2003 oclc environmental scan pattern recognition

Observations on:The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan:Pattern Recognition

Lorcan Dempsey

VP Research and Chief Strategist

CNI Spring 2004 Task Force MeetingAlexandria, April 16 2004


Overview
Overview

The library community?


The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan

Customary Board of Trustees 3 year review

This year:

Worldwide scan

User perspective

In format for sharing with membership


Pattern recognition
Pattern recognition

We have no future because our present is too volatile.

We have only risk management. The spinning of the given moment’s scenarios.

Pattern recognition …


Worldwide scan
Worldwide Scan

  • 100 people interviewed

  • 29 countries selected

  • 60% of the world’s population

  • 85% of world’s gross domestic product


Scan content
Scan content

Social

Technical

Economic

Research & learning

Library


The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The

Social

Technical

Economic

Research & learning

Library


Trends
Trends landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social

  • The ‘Amazoogle’ effect

  • Generations

  • The fabric of collaboration

  • The value of the library

Technology is what has been invented since you were bornAlan Kay


Internet search answer
Internet search & answer landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social

NASA Quest

Pregunte a un expero

Schools Online Project

ScienceLine

Scientific-American: Ask the Expert

Ammdoc.com

Buscamed

Eclevelandclinic.com

Econsults.partners.org

Enviar pregunta

Expertdoc.net

Findcancerexperts.com

Go Ask Alice

Mdexpert.com

Physician referral center

Poser une question

Pregunte a RxExpress

Ask Joan of Art

National Museum of Art Reference Desk

Ask Made

iVillage

AskLISA

Laboratorio de estudos urbanos

Abuzz

Advice Trader

Answers.com

Ask An Expert Sources.com

AskERIC

AskJeevesAskVRD.org

Ask the Old Buzzard

CNN’s Ask an Expert Page

Consejos practicos

Google Answers

Internet Public Library “Ask A Question”

Keen.com

Pregunta a los expertos

Taxcafe

Wondir

Ask Auntie Nolo

AskBAR

Experts.com

Poser un question

Ask-A-Geologist

As Ask Volcanologist

Ask Dr. Math

Ask Dr. Universe

Ask Shamu

How Things Work

MAD Scientist Network

Social

landscape

OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)


Micro content
Micro landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social content

Last Minute Addition:

Worldwide Microcontent Market

2003 - $1Billion

Includes: ring tones, logos, screen savers, micro games, etc.

“By 2007, Amazon.com’s revenue from microcontent sales will exceed $500million.”

(0.6 probability)

  • Top Ten Tech Searches 2003

  • Ringtones

  • Digital Cameras

  • Mobile Phones

  • HDTV

  • MP3 Players

  • iPod

  • TiVo

  • Plasma TV

  • DVD-R

  • Camcorders

OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003) http://search.yahoo.com/top2003


The amazoogle effect
The Amazoogle effect landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social

  • Three perceived attributes?

    • Comprehensive

    • Accessible

    • Immediate gratification

The net generation doesn’t love a wall


The fabric of collaboration social software
The fabric of collaboration: Social software landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social

The collaboration technology fabric

OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)


Trends1
Trends landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social

Net generation

Self-sufficiency

Seamlessness

Abundance

Library

Increasingly called to define value against the Amazoogle horizon

Opportunity and challenge

Social landscape


The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic

Social

Technical

Economic

Research & learning

Library


Economic landscape
Economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape landscape

  • Changes in “funding of the public good”

    • Normal cycles or permanent changes?

  • Sources of library / education funds

  • Uses of library funds

    • Resource allocations

    • Trends, shifts


Library spending
Library spending landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape

U.S., Japan, U.K., Italy and France represent nearly 75% of the total estimated 2000 worldwide library spending

$29 billion

LibEcon (August 2003)


Uses of library funds
Uses of library funds landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape

Staff 53%

33%

46%

Materials stock

27%

7%

Other

17%

14%

ARL libraries

2001-02

eContent/subscriptions 3%

Worldwide average for libraries in sample countries 2000-01

LibEcon (August 2003); ARL (2003)


Trends2
Trends landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape

  • Questioning the value of the public good

    • Education

    • Public services

  • Need for evidence of value


The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical

Social

Technical

Economic

Research & learning

Library


Technology landscape
Technology landscape technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The

  • A non-Library technology review

Where we looked and who we consulted:

  • Technology periodicals / publications

  • Leading technology vendors

  • Top technology analysts


Trends3
Trends technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The

  • Ambient connectivity and embedded computation

  • Unplug and play

  • Coping with abundance

  • Open source

  • Convenience vs privacy


A new era ambient and embedded
A new era – ambient and embedded technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The

Adapted from: Gartner Inc. 2003


Ambient and embedded
Ambient and embedded technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The

  • In an electronically nomadicised world I have become a two-legged terminal, an ambulatory IP address, maybe even a wireless router in an ad hoc mobile network.

  • Those who just want a simpler life may choose to unplug, and to live off the grid in Idaho. But for this particular early 21st Century nodular subject, disconnection would be amputation. I am part of the networks and the networks are part of me. … I am visible to Google. I link therefore I am.


Unplug and play
Unplug and play technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The

  • Software “pieces”

  • Web services

  • Distributed

Common services

  • Google API

  • Amazon API

  • In 2002, 6.2% of Amazon revenues, or $246 million, came from using Web services to become an e-commerce platform.

Content services

Application services

The User

Presentation services

OCLC Research (August 2003)


How to organize a new abundance role of library approaches
How to organize a new technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The abundance?Role of library approaches?


Hype or hope
Hype or Hope? technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The

“How close are we to the Semantic Web that Tim Berners-Lee describes? Yes, and my American garage door talks to my Belgian toaster, and they agree I am hungry. Great idea. I think it will take a long time to realize, and that we will go through several generation of enabling technologies before we find ones that are suitable to actually get the job done.”

—Herbert Van de Sompel

Salton’s Home Hub

2004 Consumer Electronic Show


Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning

Social

Technical

Economic

Research & learning

Library


Research learning landscape
Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning

  • Changing pattern of research and learning behaviours

  • Changing patterns of scholarly communication

  • Lifelong learning trends

  • The need for place

    • Social exchange


Learning for work
Learning for work Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning

Learn, adapt, change

  • In 2001, US$23 billion

  • In Fortune’s 100 fastest growing companies, 2 of top 10 are e-learning companies

  • $400 million in Asia Pacific by 2005


Oclc taskforce on elearning
oclc taskforce on elearning Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning

  • Diffusion of information skills and use through the learning process

  • Life cycle management of learning materials

  • Systems interaction between library and learning management systems

?

Picture courtesy Dan Rehak, Carnegie Mellon University


Scholarly information flow
Scholarly information flow Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning

discovery, harvesting

discovery, linking, embedding

Aggregators

harvesting

Learning object creation, reuse

Data analysis, transformation, mining, modeling

deposit, self archiving

deposit, self archiving

Researchand e-science

Learning & teaching

Repositories

Data creation, capture and gathering, lab experiments fieldwork, surveys, grids media…

Courses, modules, learning management systems, learning portals…

validation

discovery, linking, embedding

publish, discovery

peer-reviewed journals

Conferences, abstracting

and indexing services, etc.

Picture adapted from Liz Lyon


  • Complex Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning

    • Resource management

    • Personal, institutional, other

    • relationships

  • A service and role question


The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The

Social

Technical

Economic

Research & learning

Library


Interviews
Interviews landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

“Libraries should reallocate positions to newer kinds of jobs: digital scholarship, open source projects, etc.”

“Librarians cannot change user behavior and so need to meet the user.”


Interviews1
Interviews landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

“Paper content is being moved off-site to make room for things like cafes and information commons, but what stays and what goes? We do not have good tools for these decisions.”

“The idea of the balanced—but unread—collection is disappearing.”


Collections grid
Collections grid landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

Books

Journals

Newspapers

Gov. docs

CD, DVD

Maps

Scores

Freely-accessible web resources

Open source software

Newsgroup archives

  • Research and learning materials

  • ePrints/tech reports

  • Learning objects

  • Courseware

  • E-portfolios

  • Research data

Special collections

Rare books

Local/Historical newspapers

Local history materials

Archives & Manuscripts, Theses & dissertations

stewardship

high

low

low

uniqueness

high


Some issues
Some issues landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

Does structure of costs reflect new roles?

Reallocation of resources?

Digital resource management .

Skills

Mainstreaming special collections

Engagement with research and learning

Grant funding


Application architecture
Application architecture landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

Common services

I’m looking for something through my library’s portal.

Content services

Application services

The User

Presentation services

OCLC Research (August 2003)


Application architecture1
Application architecture landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

Directory: user profile

Directory: service description

Directory: ILL policy

Authentication

Common services

Directory: local knowledge base

Reference db

OpenURL resolver

Circ/ILL system

Article db

Request broker

Query broker

Content services

Application services

The User

Presentation services

OCLC Research (August 2003)


Interconnected library environment
Interconnected library environment landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

  • More complex library systems environment

    • ILS, portal, resource sharing, resolver, digital asset management, …

  • More complex institutional systems environment

    • Learning management system, university portal, local government portal, …

  • Growing use of shared services

    • Directory, identity management, trust management, …


And … landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

Social

Technical

Economic

Research & learning

Library


Trends implications
Trends & implications landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

global membership

search

Technology

Research

e-learning

self-sufficient

public good

Open-source

Web services

rights management

e-commerce

collaboration

seamless

Library

Economic

OCLC

Social


  • A turning point landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

  • Engagement with research, learning and living in new ways

  • Create value

  • Skills and values


Read the full report landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

www.oclc.org/membership/escan

Print copies available at same URL

$15 to cover print and postage


The pattern is new
The pattern is new … landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library

The knowledge imposes a pattern and falsifies

For the pattern is new in every moment


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