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World War III. Predicting the Fate of the World System. The System Level of Analysis. Polarity and Polarization. The World System. Composed of states, IGOs and NGOs (see textbook) Characteristics Number of units – Figure 3.1 Increased Uncertainty Increased War? 2. Distribution of Power

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World war iii

World War III

Predicting the Fate of the World System


The system level of analysis

The System Level of Analysis

Polarity and Polarization


The world system
The World System

  • Composed of states, IGOs and NGOs (see textbook)

  • Characteristics

    • Number of units – Figure 3.1

      • Increased Uncertainty

      • Increased War?

        2. Distribution of Power

      • States vs. Nonstate Actors

      • Major vs. Minor Powers

      • Concentration of Power: depends on measurement



The world system1
The World System

  • Composed of states, IGOs and NGOs (see textbook)

  • Characteristics

    • Number of units – Figure 3.1

      • Increased Uncertainty

      • Increased War?

        2. Distribution of Power

      • States vs. Nonstate Actors

      • Major vs. Minor Powers

      • Concentration of Power: depends on measurement

        3. Political Organization

      • Anarchy vs. Hierarchy – Figure 4.2


B polarity and leadership

GREAT POWERS

MIDDLE POWERS

SMALL POWERS

GREAT POWERS

MIDDLE POWERS

SMALL POWERS

GREAT POWERS

MIDDLE POWERS

SMALL POWERS

b. Polarity and Leadership

UNIPOLAR WORLD

BIPOLAR WORLD

MULTIPOLAR WORLD


Is the world unipolar
Is the world unipolar?

  • Depends on definition: capabilities, political influence, or leadership?

    • What makes a state stronger?

    • What gives a state influence?


Economic demographic and military capabilities in the 21 st century
Economic, Demographic, and Military Capabilities in the 21st Century

* Some believe China overstates its GDP ** Somewhat higher if PPP data used


Is the world unipolar1
Is the world unipolar?

  • Depends on definition: capabilities, political influence, or leadership?

    • What makes a state stronger?

    • What gives a state influence?

  • Most dramatic differences between US and rest: military spending and global reach



C alliances and polarization

3

3

5

5

5

5

3

9

3

9

2

2

5

5

5

5

5

5

c. Alliances and Polarization

WEAKLY POLARIZED

MULTIPOLAR

WORLD

STRONGLY POLARIZED

MULTIPOLAR

WORLD


A brief history of general wars

A Brief History of General Wars

Are there patterns of world war in history?


General wars in history
General Wars in History

A. Habsburgs and Universal Empire 1494-1559

  • Italian Wars (1494-1515): France vs. Spain (Habsburgs)  France vs. Holy League (Spain, England, Papal States, Venice)

  • French vs. Habsburgs (1521-1529, 1536-1538)

  • French and Ottomans vs. Habsburgs and England (1542-1546, 1552-1559)


B dutch independence 1568 1609
B. Dutch Independence (1568-1609)

  • 1570s – 1600s: Dutch Revolt vs. Hapsburgs (Spain)

  • 1585: England Intervenes vs. Hapsburgs  Spanish Armada (1588)  Stalemate

  • French Protestants Aid Dutch Rebels

  • 1590s: Spanish intervention in French religious wars

  • Spain defeated in France (1590s)


C thirty years war 1618 1648
C. Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648)

  • Protestants vs. Catholics

  • Stages:

    • Hapsburgs (Spain, Holy Roman Empire) vs. German Protestants

    • Fear of Hapsburg unity –> anti-Hapsburg intervention (France, England, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden)

    • Worldwide: Dutch vs. Portuguese and Spanish

  • Ending = Peace of Westphalia (book)

    • Hapsburg Power Limited (Territorial States)

    • French Gains  Collapse of Holy Roman Empire

    • Dutch naval dominance


D anglo dutch wars 1652 1679
D. Anglo-Dutch Wars (1652-1679)

  • England and France vs. Netherlands

  • Worldwide, but not very bloody

  • Dutch colonies lost

  • Renewal of Anglo-French competition


E war of the grand alliance 1688 1696
E. War of the Grand Alliance (1688-1696)

  • France invades Germany (1688)

  • League of Augsburg (Spain, Sweden, German states) opposes France

  • 1689: Grand Alliance formed vs. France (Austria, England, Netherlands, Spain, Germans)

  • “King William’s War” in America

  • French naval power destroyed, but France gains in Europe


F war of the spanish succession 1701 1714
F. War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714)

  • Hapsburg King of Spain dies – After partition fails, France claims throne

  • France, Spain, Bavaria, Portugal, Savoy vs. new Grand Alliance (England, Holland, Austria, other German states)

  • “Queen Anne’s War” in America

  • France agrees never to unite with Spain

  • English power increases dramatically


G war of the austrian succession 1739 1748
G. War of the Austrian Succession (1739-1748)

  • Hapsburg Heir to Austria dies  Succession crisis

  • German states attack Austria (Saxon, Bavarian, Silesian Wars)

    • France aids German states  Franco-Austrian War (1744-1748)

    • Britain, Netherlands, Austria vs. France and Spain

  • “King George’s War” in America

  • France fails in objectives; Hapsburgs win


H seven years war 1756 1763
H. Seven Years’ War (1756-1763)

  • French-English rivalry meets Austrian-Prussian competition

    • France and Native American allies attack English colonies (1755)

    • Prussia declares neutrality in French-English war

    • France responds by aiding Austria against Prussia

    • Alliances: France, Austria, Russia, Saxony, Sweden, Spain vs. Prussia, Britain, Hanover

  • More global than previous wars

    • French and Indian War in America

    • War in India and Southeast Asia

  • Results

    • France loses Quebec, India and other areas to Britain

    • Austria loses in Europe

    • Prussia becomes Great Power

    • Expenses  American Revolution and renewed French-British war


I wars of the french revolution and napoleon 1792 1815
I. Wars of the French Revolution and Napoleon (1792-1815)

  • War of the First Coalition (1792-1798): England, Spain, Austria, Prussia, Sardinia vs. France

    • Reaction to executions, threat of revolution

    • France wins in Continental Europe, but England keeps fighting

  • War of the Second Coalition (1798-1802): England, Russia, Austria, Turkey vs. France

    • Triggered by French gains in Italy, Germany

    • Rise of Napoleon

  • French-British War (1803-1805)


3 war of the third coalition 1805 1807
3. War of the Third Coalition (1805-1807)

  • Britain, Russia, Austria, Sweden vs. France and Spain

  • Austria surrenders unconditionally

  • French-Spanish fleet destroyed (Trafalgar)

  • Napoleon gains Poland, most of Germany. Forced alliance with Austria.


4 continued napoleonic wars
4. Continued Napoleonic Wars

  • Peninsular War (1807-1812): Napoleon vs. Portugal, Britain, and Spanish guerillas

  • Austro-French War (1809): Austria defeated again

  • Franco-Russian War (1812): Severe defeat for Napoleon

  • War of 1812 (to 1814): United States vs. Britain


5 allies vs napoleon 1812 1815
5. Allies vs. Napoleon (1812-1815)

  • 1812-1814: Napoleon defeated; return to 1793 status quo

  • b. Napoleon’s Return (1815): France defeated, punished


6 results
6. Results

  • British supremacy at sea

  • Congress of Vienna:

    • Russia, Prussia gain territory

    • Austria gains in Germany and Italy

    • “Congress System”

  • “Eastern Question”


J crimean war 1854 1856
J. Crimean War (1854-1856)

  • Russia vs. Turkey  Intervention by France, Britain, Piedmont-Sardinia

  • Limited War: Crimea and Baltic coasts

  • Results

    • Russia concedes before war becomes general

    • Concert of Europe

    • Power vacuum  Rise of Prussia (Wars against Austria and France, German unification)


K world war i 1914 1919
K. World War I (1914-1919)

  • Prewar: Multipolar but Polarized system

    • Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy) vs. Triple Entente (Britain, Russia, France)

  • Threat of Hapsburg collapse after assassination  A-H vs. Serbia  Russia vs. A-H  Germany vs. Russia  Germany vs. France  Germany vs. Britain



4 results of world war i
4. Results of World War I

  • Final collapse of Hapsburgs

  • End of “Eastern Question”

  • Destruction of German naval challenge

  • Relative decline of Europe

  • League of Nations


L world war ii 1939 1945
L. World War II (1939-1945)

  • Germany and Italy vs. Britain and France (1939-1941)

  • Japan vs. China (1937-1941)

  • Soviet and American entry (1941)

    Allies (USA, USSR, Britain, France, China)

    vs. Axis (Germany, Italy, Japan)

  • Results

    • Five victorious “Great Powers” but only two superpowers

    • Beginning of Cold War – and “Long Peace”

    • Nuclear weapons



The war that wasn t

The War That Wasn’t

Why did the Cold War stay cold?


The war that wasn t the cold war
The War that Wasn’t: The Cold War

  • US vs. USSR: The world chooses sides


B impact of nuclear weapons
B. Impact of Nuclear Weapons

  • Destructiveness of a single weapon

  • Example: 100 KT Surface Blast, Fort Hood Main Gate

  • 100 KT = larger explosion than WW II atomic bombs but much less powerful than many 1950s weapons


15 psi: Virtually all dead

5 psi: 50% dead, 45% injured

2 psi: 5% dead, 45% injured)

1 psi: 25% injured




Example 100 kt surface fallout
Example: 100 KT Surface: Fallout

1 hour: Lethal

2 hours: Lethal

3 hours: Lethal

4 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal

5 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal

Possible Zone of Sickness






C nuclear winter
c. “Nuclear Winter”

Controversial theory condemned as “defeatist” by Cold Warriors


C nuclear crises
C. Nuclear Crises

  • Iran 1946

  • Berlin Blockade 1948-1949

  • Korea 1950-1953

  • Quemoy-Matsu 1954 and 1958

  • Berlin Wall 1961

  • Cuban Missile Crisis 1962

  • Vietnam 1969

  • October War 1973




B communist images of the us
b. Communist Images of the US

  • “Freedom, American style”


B communist images of the us1
b. Communist Images of the US

  • “Two worlds - two goals. We are planning new life. They are planning death.”


B communist images of the us2
b. Communist Images of the US

  • “This is freedom?”


B communist images of the us3
b. Communist Images of the US

  • “Vietnam. How America Exports ‘Human Rights.’”


B communist images of the us4
b. Communist Images of the US

  • “Stop the killers!”



B communist images of the us6
b. Communist Images of the US

  • “A Christmas present for the people”


B communist images of the us7
b. Communist Images of the US

  • “What dangerous madness!”


B communist images of the us8
b. Communist Images of the US

  • “Myth – and reality.”



3 nuclearphilia
3. Nuclearphilia

  • While the public was nuclearphobic, many elites (scientists, politicians, military leaders) were nuclearphilic

  • Need a few examples?






Quotes on nuclear war
Quotes on nuclear war warhead

  • “The bombing of Hiroshima was the greatest event in world history since the birth of Jesus Christ.”

    • - Senator Brien "Mr. Atom" McMahon, 1952

  • “Everybody's going to make it if there are enough shovels to go around. Dig a hole, cover it with a couple of doors, and then throw three feet of dirt on top. It's the dirt that does it!”

    • - T.K. Jones, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Strategic and Nuclear Forces, 1982.

  • "I do not consider the atomic bomb as such a serious force. Atomic bombs are intended to frighten people with weak nerves."

    • - Joseph Stalin

  • "Only the imperialists will perish in an Atomic war."

    • - V.Molotov, 1949


E termination
E. Termination warhead

  • Soviets abandon bipolarity: Desire to cut off allies and reduce military spending

  • Soviet Union disintegrates: Component republics secede under new political elites generated by internal reforms

  • US influence expands: West Germany absorbs East Germany, NATO expands into former Soviet sphere of influence


Theories of world war

Theories of World War warhead

System-level explanations and predictions


Theories of world war1
Theories of World War warhead

  • Long Cycle of Leadership

    • Phases of the cycle

      • World Power – Single dominant state with global reach

      • Delegitimation – Other states recover from the global war, seek increased influence

      • Deconcentration – Challengers and the leader build coalitions

      • Global War – The new leader is decided, as one state emerges with dominant global reach


2 global reach
2. Global Reach warhead

  • Naval power is key: definition changes over time


3 evidence cycles of war
3. Evidence: Cycles of War? warhead

  • Deaths in major power wars:


Scope of wars
Scope of wars warhead


4 predictions
4. Predictions warhead

  • Global war: 2030


B power transition
B. Power Transition warhead

  • Assumptions

    a. System Level: World is Hierarchic



B dyad level challenger vs dominant power

War by Challenger to change SQ warhead

Preemptive war by Dom

Challenger

Power

Dominant

t

Unstable

b. Dyad Level: Challenger vs. Dominant Power


C state level what creates transitions
c. State Level: What creates transitions? warhead

  • Existence of challenger: status quo evaluations

  • Rise of challenger: development curve


2 measuring power
2. Measuring Power warhead

  • GNP  Ultimately reduces to population!

  • Relative Political Capacity – Taxes


3 evidence
3. Evidence warhead


1920 2000
1920-2000 warhead






C hegemonic stability theory
C. Hegemonic Stability Theory warhead

  • Assumptions: Primarily Economic Theory

    • Depressions  Major Wars

    • International Economic Cooperation Prevents Depressions


Assumptions
Assumptions warhead

  • Public Goods Theory:

    • World Economy as “Public Good:” Cannot exclude countries from existing in a prosperous world

    • Problem: World economic stability costs money (currency stability, free trade/lost jobs, military intervention, international law, etc.) – but no one wants to pay since their contributions won’t make a difference!

    • Free Riding: Enjoying benefits of stable world economy without paying costs

  • Hegemony: When a single state…

    • CAN pay the costs of world economic stability

    • MUST pay those costs or stability won’t be provided

    • is WILLING to pay those costs because the benefits to itself outweigh the costs



2 historical applicability
2. Historical Applicability warhead

  • Theory doesn’t apply before 18th century, according to HST proponents

    • Why?



Growth of world real gdp per person

1,000% warhead

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

–100

11th

12th

13th

14th

15th

16th

17th

18th

19th

20th

21st

Century

Growth of World Real GDP per Person



3 evidence1
3. Evidence warhead

  • Free Trade

    • Napoleonic Wars: Challenge to British Hegemony (Continental System) – Consistent

    • 1815-1840: Increased Protectionism: Corn Laws, etc – Inconsistent

    • 1840s-1850s: Rise of free trade in Britain -- Consistent

    • 1860s-1880s: Rise of free trade in Europe, i.e. Cobden-Chevalier Treaty (1860) -- Consistent


V free trade and us hegemony
v. Free Trade and US Hegemony warhead

AVERAGE AVERAGE

US TARIFF WORLD

YEAR RATE TARIFF

-------- --------- ----------

1940 36% 40%

1946 25% --

1950 13% 25%

1960 12% 17%

1970 10% 13%

1975 6% --

1984 5% 5%




A new world order

A New World Order? warhead

Will democracy, trade, and the UN save us?


Trends toward world peace
Trends toward world peace warhead

  • Kantian Peace (More on this later): Democracy, Interdependence, IGOs  trend toward world peace

  • All data presented begins in 1816






"International finance has become so interdependent and so interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient.“ – Norman Angell


"International finance has become so interdependent and so interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient.“ – Norman Angell, 1910


Average igo memberships state 1816 1910
Average IGO Memberships / State interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient.“ – Norman Angell,1816 - 1910


% States Democratic interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient.“ – Norman Angell,

1816 - 1913


States democratic 1816 1992
% States Democratic interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient.“ – Norman Angell,1816 - 1992


World trade dependence 1816 1913
World Trade Dependence interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient.“ – Norman Angell,1816 - 1913


World trade dependence 1816 2000
World Trade Dependence interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient.“ – Norman Angell,1816 - 2000


Interdependence
Interdependence? interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient.“ – Norman Angell,

  • Exports as % of GDP

    • 1913: 13%

    • 1992: 14%

  • FDI as % of GDP

    • 1914: 11%

    • 1993: 11%

  • British-German trade was high

    • Lloyd’s insured Germany’s ships!


Per capita gdp by region 1820 1913
Per Capita GDP By Region 1820 - 1913 interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient.“ – Norman Angell,


Per capita gdp by region 1820 2000
Per Capita GDP By Region 1820 - 2000 interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient.“ – Norman Angell,


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