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Housing 2020: What is Shaping the Future of Housing in Virginia


Problems emanating from the housing market forced financial institutions to take massive write-downs on their mortgage portfolios, igniting a broader banking crisis. Amid fears about the strength of banks and severe losses of both housing and stock wealth, consumer confidence plunged 41 percentbelow its lowest previous trough. Households slashed their spending and—for the first time on record—cut their net borrowing.State of the Nation’s Housing 2009


  • Where we’ve been in the last 5 years

  • Our housing market has been defined by the housing crash over the past 5 years.

  • Over 100,000 homes foreclosed in Virginia

  • Construction of new homes nearly came to a halt

  • Sales of existing homes dipped to record lows

  • Nearly 25% of mortgages in Virginia are underwater or near underwater

  • The homeownership rate began to decline for the first time


After several false starts, there is reason to believe that 2012 marks the beginning of a true housing market recovery. State of the Nation’s Housing 2012


We’re beginning to hear noises that we’ve reached a major turning point in the housing market — and that, with interest rates so low, this is a rare opportunity to buy. But are such observations on target? It would be comforting if they were. Yet the unfortunate truth is that the tea leaves don’t clearly suggest any particular path for prices, either up or down. Robert Schiller, NYT, January 26, 2013


Housing 2020 why
Housing 2020: Why?

  • We need to look beyond recovery from the Housing Crash

  • There are sweeping trends that are re-shaping housing in seismic ways.

  • Our housing markets and products will be widely affected.

  • Understanding these trends and their impacts will help us prepare our communities.


Think big what is shaping the future of housing in virginia in the next decade
THINK BIG: What is shaping the future of housing in Virginia in the next decade?


Demographics

Economics

Finance

Green/Sustainable


Housing 2020

Part 2: Economics


Economics
Economics

  • What does Recovery from the “Great Recession” look like in Virginia?

  • The role of the housing industry in recovery

  • Job and income growth are keys to housing

  • Regional variations exist in economic health

  • Student debt has soared, affecting housing choice

  • Loss of home equity creates challenges


Economics1
Economics

Christine Chmura at Chmura Economics

  • Chris is the President and Chief Economist for Chmura Economics & Analytics, a quantitative research and economic development and workforce consulting firm

  • Chris is a quoted source on regional and national trends in the media throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, as well as national publications such as the Wall Street Journal.



Housing Virginia Video Presentations

“Economic Growth in the State” by Chris Chmurra

Click to view video - Internet connection is required.








Where will we see growth
Where will we in 2011see growth?

  • The crescent


Housing and the economy how important is housing to economic growth in va
Housing and the economy: in 2011How important is housing to economic growth in VA?


Housing Virginia Video Presentations in 2011

“Housing Market and the State Economy” by Chris Chmurra

Click to view video - Internet connection is required.




Housing is not leading us out of the great recession
Housing is 2011NOT Leading Us out of the Great Recession



Housing Virginia Video Presentations 2011

“Future of the Housing Economy” by Chris Chmurra

Click to view video - Internet connection is required.


Where will prices go
Where will prices go? 2011

Virginia Association of REALTORS



Housing Virginia Video Presentations 2011

“Recent Rise in Home Prices” by Chris Chmurra

Click to view video - Internet connection is required.



Housing Virginia Video Presentations reversed?

“Decline in Home Ownership” by Chris Chmurra

Click to view video - Internet connection is required.


Millennials and the economy
Millennials and the economy. reversed?

  • The unemployment rate for Millennials is 12% - over 17% when discouraged workers are included.


Impact of the housing crash
Impact of the housing crash reversed?

  • “They’re more risk averse… because of this, they won’t invest as much — into the stock market, housing or any one job.”



Virginia s students are debt burdened from the start
Virginia reversed? ’s students are debt burdened from the start

  • While there are variations, generally more than half of VA grads have student debt

    Institute for College Access



Housing Virginia Video Presentations reversed?

“Effect of Student Loan Debt on New Homebuyers” by Chris Chmurra

Click to view video - Internet connection is required.


Student debt levels will affect loan qualification
Student debt levels will affect loan qualification reversed?

  • Student debt + car loan + credit card

  • New QM rules – 43% back end ratio



Housing Virginia Video Presentations reversed?

“Impact of the Decline in Home Value” by Chris Chmurra

Click to view video - Internet connection is required.




Housing Virginia Video Presentations reversed?

“Factors Driving Growth of HH Income” by Chris Chmurra

Click to view video - Internet connection is required.


Lender response
Lender response reversed?



Housing Virginia Video Presentations reversed?

“Recession’s Effect on Bank Underwriting” by Chris Chmurra

Click to view video - Internet connection is required.


Prospects for homeownership is owning a home still a goal
Prospects for homeownership: reversed? Is owning a home still a goal?


Housing Virginia Video Presentations reversed?

“Economic Growth in the State Part 2” by Chris Chmurra

Click to view video - Internet connection is required.


Takeaways economics
Takeaways reversed? : Economics

  • Virginia’s economy is recovering but regional variances are large

  • Strong dependence on federal spending is a concern

  • Housing contributes to economic growth / must be a part of the recovery

  • Student debt is now a major factor in housing choice

  • Loss of home equity / refi challenges limit trade ups and consumer spending

  • Millennials are facing employment challenges

  • Price recovery / construction will be slow & uneven


For more information visit reversed?

www.housingvirginia.org



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