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MOTIVE

MOTIVE. Models for Adaptive Forest Management. addressing the call FP7-ENV-2008-1 and the topic ENV.2.1.6.1 Development of adaptive forest management models. MOTIVE is a large-scale integrating project (project number 226544). The project.

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MOTIVE

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  1. MOTIVE Models for Adaptive Forest Management addressing the call FP7-ENV-2008-1 and the topic ENV.2.1.6.1 Development of adaptive forest management models. MOTIVE is a large-scale integrating project (project number 226544).

  2. The project • Large scale integrated project • In the 7th Framework programme of the EU • MOTIVE investigates adaptive management strategies that address climate and land use change. It also examines the impacts of these changes with respect to a broad range of forest goods and services. • Coordinated by Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg • Project Co-ordinator: Prof. Dr. Marc Hanewinkel

  3. Objectives • To provide insights, data and tools to improve policymaking and adaptive forest resource management under climate change • Integrated assessment of forest management strategies • A comparative assessment across a wide rangeof climatic and socio-economic conditions • Influence of feedback loops from socio-economy and policy making on resource management • Translate scientific state of knowledge into decision support for policy makers and forest practitioners

  4. Scientific work packages data methods Baseline trends and possible futures for the EU (WP2) Case studies Development of improved models for adaptive forest management (WP3) Testing & evaluating management options and risks (WP4) Evaluating and selecting good adaptive forest management strategies (WP5) Improved decision support in adaptive forest management (WP6)

  5. Project implementation Case studies Two cases per each of five bioclimatic zones and one for the EU Trends (WP2) Models (WP3) Options and risks (WP4) Strategies (WP5) Decision support (WP6) Communi cation (WP7) Coordination (WP1)

  6. Regional case studies Boreal North Karelia Boreal Kronoberg Temperate Atlantic Wales Continental - Mountainous Carpathian Mountains Temperate Atlantic SE Veluwe Temperate Central - Mountainous Montafon Valley Mediterranean Chamusca Continental - Mediterranean Panagiurishte Mediterranean Catalonia Temperate Central Black Forest

  7. Case study information 1/3

  8. Case study information 2/3

  9. Case study information 3/3

  10. The Consortium

  11. First results and impacts of MOTIVE

  12. Climate change impacts on Net Primary Productivity (NPP) • Until 2050 most regions throughout Europe show minor increases in NPP, but • locally and in the Southwest NPP declines due to increased summer drought Change in NPP (g C m-2 a-1) by 2050 A2 scenario

  13. Future suitability and yields of the sites for Douglas fir in Wales • 2080 B2 low emissions • Ray and Nicoll, 2011 1961-1990 baseline 2080 B2 low emissions 2080 A1F1 high emissions

  14. Testing and evaluating management options and risks Black Forest, Germany Declining Norway spruce biomass under an intermediate climate change scenario & unchanged even-aged Norway spruce management Provision of timber cannot be maintained without management changes Temperli, Elkin, Bugmann, 2011.

  15. Annual Fire Pocurr Aridity index Pannual/ETPannual Management influences fire risk in Southern Europe (Catalonian case study) Decreasing fire occurrence probability with reduced basal area (BA) and larger average diameter (dg). C. Gracia, 2011

  16. Models to support adaptive forest management – first results 1992 1994 • Effect of intense thinning carried out in 1992 in reducing mortality during the drought of 1994. • Thinning  alleviates drought stress and reduces fire risk in Catalonian forests.

  17. ENow(Climate) Now • Challenges facing forest managers and the approaches science may take to support decisions Forward-looking -adaptive manager Trend-adaptive manager Re-active manager Observed change No change manager time Bredahl-Jacobsen et al. 2010

  18. Improved decision support in adaptive management – MOTIVE toolbox for adaptive forest management The Ecosystem Service Assessment tool within the MOTIVE toolbox for adaptive forest management. The appraisal is based on forest structure and composition, stakeholder preferences, and landscape features (e.g. a digital terrain model). Maroschek, Rammer, Lexer, 2011.

  19. The awareness of forest owners and practitioners is critical for implementation of adaptation to climate change

  20. More about MOTIVE and topic • Web page of the project: • www.motive-project.net • Discussion forum: • Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in European Forestry • www.linkedin.com/groups?about=&gid=2895718

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