How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025? Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment September 26, 2012 Tampa, Florida Supporting Information Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors. Percentage of 2010 Population (25-34) with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher. 2.
How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025?
Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment
September 26, 2012
Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors
Florida is ranked 37th
last among the
ten most populous states in the percent of its 25-34 year old population with a Bachelor’s or higher.
BIG 10: 31%
Source: National Center for Higher Education Management (NCHEMS) analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) Educational Attainment by Degree-Level and Age-Group – see link.
By Gender and Age Group
Relative to National Average
Source: Board staff analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) Educational Attainment by Degree-Level and Age-Group.
in the ratio of bachelor’s degrees awarded per 1,000
18-24 year olds.
BIG 10: 52.1
Source: National Science Foundation State Indicators (table 8-16) – see link. Note: The most recently available data is for 2009.
Florida is ranked 40th
in its per capita GDP for 2010.
BIG 10: $40,660
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Per capita real GDP by state in 2010 measured in chained (2005) dollars – see link.
Florida is ranked 45th
last among the
ten most populous states in per capita Net Earnings by place of residence in 2011.
BIG 10: $34,400
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Net Earnings by place of residence – State income and employment summary (table SA04). US Census Bureau (July 2011 population estimate for 18yr old and older). Note: Net earnings is earnings by place of work (the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income) less contributions for government social insurance, plus an adjustment to convert earnings by place of work to a place-of-residence basis.
Source: New Economy Index 2010 report ranked Florida as 21st in the Nation, but 33rd in Knowledge-based jobs - see link. Note: “knowledge jobs” indicators in this section measure seven aspects of knowledge-based employment – see p.14.
Source: Closing the College Attainment Gap between the U.S. and Most Educated Countries, NCHEMS - see link.
Source: College Board, Education Pays (2010)
Note: Based on 2008 data from full-time, year-round workers aged 25 and older. Taxes paid include federal income, Social Security, Medicare, state and local income, sales and property taxes,
Sources: Unemployment data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poverty data from US Census, 2006-10 American Community Survey (table S1501).
Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data.
Actual and Projected Public High School Graduates
with Standard Diplomas in Florida
flat growthfor standard diplomas*
48% - 55%
of standard diploma recipients enroll in Higher Ed
Source: BOG staff analysis of FLDOE diploma projections to 2015-16 (as of Feb, 2012) and FETPIP Annual Outcomes Reports. Note*: projections do not include Race to the Top goals, or graduation rate increases.
Percentage of Florida’s18-24 Year Olds Enrolled in College
Is Below the National Average
Florida is ranked 31st
in the percent of its 18-24 year olds
who are enrolled in Higher Education
BIG 10: 36%
Source: NCHEMS staff analysis of IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey and US Census Population estimates – see link. Note: The most recently available data is for 2009.
Florida’s Projected Undergraduate Enrollment in 2025
Additional Undergraduate Enrollment in Florida
Florida’s 18-24 year old population is projected to increase by 147,000
from 2010 to 2025.
If Florida enrolls 34% of the 18-24yr old population in 2025, then Florida is projected to add 50,000 undergraduates.
If Florida enrolls 36% of the 18-24yr old population in 2025, then Florida will add more than 85,000 undergraduates.
Source: EDR population estimates (Nov. 2011) for 18-24 year old age group (average between 2020 and 2030 projection) – see link. Note: EDR projects the 20-24 age group will grow faster than 18-19 age group.
Source: EDR, May2012 – see link.
Florida’s Projected Growth by Age
Historically, population growth has been the Florida’s primary engine of economic growth. However, Florida’s overall population growthis forecast to remain relatively flat – averaging between 0.8% and 1.1% between 2010 and 2030 (compared to the 3% annual rate from 1970 to 1995).
EDR estimates that the majority of Florida’s growth over the next two decades will be from people 60 years old and over.
SOURCE: EDR, May 2012 – see link.
Nonagricultural Employment by Industry
Florida, July 2012 (Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released August 17, 2012.
Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center.