Resources, Population and Consumption: Consuming Ourselves, Consuming our Planet?

1. Resources, Population and Consumption: Consuming Ourselves, Consuming our Planet?

2. Population Growth and the world • Humans as Biological species: parasites? • Are we exceeding the limits of the planet’s capacities? • Major theme: Uneven patterns of population growth, poverty and consumption • Developed nations = 85 % consumption, 25 % of population

3. Migration: Urbanization • Urbanization is a major trend in migration: • Rural to urban; less developed to urban • -Mega cities • -Concentrates hazards and inequalities, but also ^ consumption by more affluent (Urban people consume more than rural)

4. Population and Consumption • The myths of famine: • -Modern day famines not caused by too many people, and too little food, but by poverty and inequality • A. Sen and Entitlements: “starvation is the characteristic of some people not having enough food to eat. It is not the characteristic of there being not enough food to eat. While the latter can be cause of the former, it is but one of many possible causes. : • Malthus and carrying capacity • Carrying capacity: • Finite or expandable • What are the limits?

5. Patterns of Consumption • Consumption: The paradox of Plenty • Production has increased, but so have patterns and levels of consumption • Unequal distribution of wealth and consumption • Problems of obesity and poor nutrition contrast with poverty and under/malnutrition

6. Global Impact of Consumption • Problems of: • -Intensive Agriculture • - highly processed foods • -limits/problems of Green Revolution • -GM foods and dwindling variety • -High costs and high energy inputs for commercialized agriculture • Affluence = ^ consumption

7. The Impact of Consumption • Impact and Sustainability? • Consumer debt ^ • Ecological debt ^ • Ecological Foot Print ^

8. Ecological Footprint

10. Human Impacts

11. What is your Carbon Footprint? http://www.carbonfootprint.com/ http://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx

12. Water: Water Stressed world 1.1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water and 2.6 billion lack access to sanitation. The majority of those affected live in Asia (see red slices on graph). The situation is worst in sub-Saharan Africa, where 42 percent of people lack access to safe drinking water and 64 percent lack access to adequate sanitation.

13. Global Water Stress

14. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) estimates that between 5 and 25 percent of global freshwater use exceeds long-term accessible supplies. Agricultural uses are the biggest concern, with an estimated 15 to 35 percent of irrigation withdrawals in excess of sustainable limits (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). 55 percent out to the year 2025. Currently, water use per unit of output in transition economies is two to three times higher than in OECD (European) countries (Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000). By the year 2050, untreated wastewater could reduce the world’s freshwater resources by as much as 18,000 km3 annually (UNESCO-WWAP 2003). That is almost four times the annual flow of the Amazon River

15. Water Stress Issues Adequate supplies of freshwater are a cornerstone for human activities Lack of access to safe, clean water for drinking, sanitation, agriculture, or industry is perpetuating cycles of poverty and limiting viable development options in regions around the world. Without access to a reliable and convenient source of water, can result life-threatening water-related Diseases emerge. Countries require a certain level of water infrastructure to support economic activities. Irrigation networks overcome drought and prevent famine; dams and dikes regulate water flows and avoid floods. Water scarcity and poor water quality could lead to increased potential for domestic instability and heightened transnational tensions. Water has been a source of considerable cooperation between nations sharing water resources. However, increasing populations and water scarcities may bring about a different future. In the years ahead, instability or conflict related to water supplies will likely occur .

16. Water: The Costs and Impact Two million tons of human waste is released into streams and rivers around the world every day (UNESCO-WWAP 2003). Eighty percent of people without access to sanitation live in rural areas, totaling 1.3 billion people in rural India and China alone (UNESCO-WWAP 2003). Roughly one third of all people living in rural areas lacks access to improved drinking water sources (CSD 2004a). Five million people die every year as a result of waterborne diseases or water-related illnesses

17. Energy: Finite and Renewable Global energy needs are likely to continue to grow steadily for at least the next two-and-a-half decades. If governments stick with current policies – the underlying premise of our Reference Scenario – the world’s energy needs would be more than 50% higher in 2030 than today. Over 60% of that increase would be in the form of oil and natural gas. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate energy supplies, meeting more than 80% of the projected increase in primary energy demand. Oil remains the single most important fuel, with two-thirds of the increase in oil use coming from the transport sector.

18. Energy Demands: Population X Affluence World Energy Demand will Grow Inexorably, Absent New Policies In the absence of new government policies, the world’s energy needs will rise inexorably. By 2030, the world will be consuming 16.3 billion tonnes of oil equivalent – 5.5 billion tonnes more than today. More than two-thirds of the growth in world energy use will come from the developing countries, where economic and population growth are highest.

19. Non-Renewable Consumption

21. Renewables Renewable electricity generation capacity reached an estimated 240 gigawatts (GW) worldwide in 2007, an increase of 50 percent over 2004. Renewable energy generated as much electric power worldwide in 2006 as one-quarter of the world’s nuclear power plants. The largest component of renewables generation capacity is wind power, which grew by 28 percent worldwide in 2007 to reach an estimated 95 GW. Annual capacity additions increased even more: 40 percent higher in 2007 compared to 2006. The fastest growing energy technology in the world is grid-connected solar photovoltaics (PV), with 50 percent annual increases in cumulative installed capacity in both 2006 and 2007 Rooftop solar heat collectors provide hot water to nearly 50 million households worldwide, and space heating to a growing number of homes. Existing solar hot water/heating capacity increased by 19 percent in 2006 Source: World Watch Institute: 2007

22. Renewables Biomass and geothermal energy are commonly employed for both power and heating, with recent increases in a number of countries, including uses for district heating. More than 2 million ground-source heat pumps are used in 30 countries for building heating and cooling. Production of biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) exceeded an estimated 53 billion liters in 2007, up 43 percent from 2005. Ethanol production in 2007 represented about 4 percent of the 1,300 billion liters of gasoline consumed globally. Annual biodiesel production increased by more than 50 percent in 2006. Renewable energy, especially small hydropower, biomass, and solar PV, provides electricity, heat, motive power, and water pumping for tens of millions of people in rural areas of developing countries, serving agriculture, small industry, homes, schools, and community needs. Developing countries as a group have more than 40 percent of existing renewable power capacity, more than 70 percent of existing solar hot water capacity, and 45 percent of biofuels production. Source: World Watch Institute

23. FOOD: Why the Crises? FAO says that 854 million people worldwide are undernourished. This is 12.6 percent of the estimated world population of 6.6 billion. Most of the undernourished--820 million--are in developing countries.  Snakes and ladders: Hunger drops people into poverty, poverty puts people at risk of hunger when food production is highly commercialized. The origins of the current crisis lie not in a global lack of food—there is enough food in the world to meet demand—but in a long-term lack of access to food for many people. Poverty and inequality sit at the heart of hunger: poor people often cannot afford to grow or buy food, and the resources needed to get access to food are inequitably distributed.

24. Hunger and Poverty Hunger is a chief cause of poverty, illiteracy, disease and mortality, Hunger is chief cause for the vast majority of the 121 million children who do not attend school, the nearly 11 million children who die before reaching the age of five, the 530 000 women who die during pregnancy and childbirth, the 300 million cases of acute malaria and the more than 1 million malaria deaths each year. Conflict and the displacement of people from conflict and economic crises further undermines local food production Progress in reducing the number of hungry people. The (estimated) number of undernourished people in developing countries  was 824 million in 1990-92. In 2000-02, the number had declined only slightly to  820 million (854 million worldwide including countries in transition--formerly part of the Soviet bloc--and developed countries [FAO 2006])

25. Population, affluence and consumption

26. Food as a commodity FAO Food Price Index: February 2007 - January 2008 food price index

27. Food and The Market: Price crisis • What Are the Causes? • Despite several record-breaking harvests, world cereals production between 2000 and 2007 fell well short of consumption. The shortfall has forced the depletion of world grain stocks which are now at their lowest levels in 25 years. Why? • -High price of oil, manifested in increased fertilizer and fuel costs • Increased demand for meat and dairy products in the developing world, which requires more grain be fed to livestock • -Diversion of crops for biofuel production • Adverse weather conditions, such as the recent six-year Australian drought that decimated rice production • -Commodity speculation by investors • Lack of access to improved inputs and markets amongst smallholder farmers in the developing world—particularly in sub-Saharan Africa—which limits their ability to react to the incentives created by increased demand • -Domestic policy responses to higher food prices in developing countries—such as export taxes, bans, or other restrictions—which exacerbate the problem.

28. The Corporatization of Food At all stages of the food system—from seeds and other inputs to food processing and retail food sales—market power is concentrating in an ever smaller number of corporate firms. Concentration begins at the input stage in agriculture. Three companies control about half of the global agrochemical market: Bayer, Syngenta, and BASF. Monsanto and Archer-Daniels-Midland control over half of the U.S. GM market. Use of genetically modified (GM) seeds has risen dramatically since these were first commercialized in the mid-1990s— now 45 percent of the corn and 85 percent of the soybeans grown in the United States are GM.2 In 2004, land planted with Monsanto seeds accounted for 88 percent of the total area in GM crops worldwide. Once a global commons, genetic resources are now subject to Intellectual Property Rights protections. Developing countries are forced to deal with large transnational companies to get access to improved seed varieties and plant breeding technologies. Source: World Watch Institute

29. Food and The Market: Concentration Globally, transnational supermarkets dominate the retail sector for food. Globalized supply chains give supermarkets the ability to get products from wherever they are cheapest, and the large firms exert pressure on suppliers to accept lower prices. Suppliers in turn demand that farmers accept lower prices. In the United States, farmers’ share of the retail food dollar fell from a high of 40 percent in 1973 to below 20 percent in 2000. Some analysts argue that large supermarkets like Wal-Mart’s Supercenters have helped consumers by using market power to drive down prices. But a growing body of economic research suggests that, over time, concentration tends to lead to higher prices.