Growth Theories

1. Growth Theories Three main strands of Growth Theory have developed over time, each building upon and replacing the previous theory: • Classical Growth Theory (Malthus) • Neoclassical Growth Theory (Solow) • New Growth Theory (Romer, Lucas)

2. Growth Theories • Classical Growth Theory • Classical growth theory is the view that real GDP growth is temporary and that when real GDP per person rises above the subsistence level, a population explosion brings real GDP per person back to the subsistence level. • Therefore, Economics = the Dismal Science

3. Growth Theories • The basic Classical idea • There is a subsistence real wage rate, which is the minimum real wage rate needed to maintain life. • Advances in technology lead to investment in new capital. • Labor productivity increases and the real wage rate rises above the subsistence level. • When the real wage rate is above the subsistence level, the population grows. • Population growth increases the supply of labor, which lowers the real wage rate.

4. Growth Theories • The population continues to increase until the real wage rate has been driven back to the subsistence real wage rate. • At this real wage rate, both population growth and economic growth stop. • In fact, these predictions which may have seemed plausible during the 18th and early 19th centuries, when this theory was developed, are not consistent with the actual growth experiences of modern industrial economies. (Though it may have some bearing on those African economies that seem to have such difficulty maintaining growth.) • Contrary to the assumption of the classical theory, the historical evidence is that population growth rate is not tightly linked to income per person, and population growth does not drive incomes back down to subsistence levels.

5. Growth Theories • The population continues to increase until the real wage rate has been driven back to the subsistence real wage rate. • At this real wage rate, both population growth and economic growth stop. • In fact, these predictions which may have seemed plausible during the 18th and early 19th centuries, when this theory was developed, are not consistent with the actual growth experiences of modern industrial economies. (Though it may have some bearing on those African economies that seem to have such difficulty maintaining growth.)

6. Growth Theories What’s wrong with the theory? Contrary to the assumption of the classical theory, the historical evidence is that population growth rate is not tightly linked to income per person, and population growth does not drive incomes back down to subsistence levels.

7. Growth Theories • Figure 9.7 illustrates the Classical growth theory.

8. Growth Theories • Neoclassical Growth Theory • Neoclassical growth theory is the proposition that real GDP per person grows because technological progress, which increases the productivity of capital (and labor), increases investment demand, inducing a level of saving and investment that makes capital per hour of labor grow. The growth in technology and capital per hour of labor combine to increase labor productivity and real GDP per capita. • Growth ends only if technological change stops.

9. Growth Theories • The neoclassical economics of population growth (vs. the classical economics of population growth) • The neoclassical view is that the population growth rate is independent of real GDP and the real GDP growth rate. • The population growth rate equals the birth rate minus the death rate. • The birth rate is determined by the opportunity cost of a woman’s time. • As women’s wage rates have increased, the opportunity cost of having children has also increased and the birth rate has fallen.

10. Growth Theories • The death rate is determined by the quality and availability of health care. • As the quality and availability of health care has improved, the death rate has fallen. • The fall in both the birth rate and the death rate have offset each other and made the population growth rate independent of the level of income.

11. Growth Theories • The basic neoclassical idea • Technology begins to advance more rapidly. • New profit opportunities arise. • Investment demand increases. • Investment and saving increase. • As technology advances and the capital stock grows, real GDP per person rises. • Diminishing returns to capital per hour of labor lower the real interest rate and eventually growth stops unless technology keeps on advancing.

12. Growth Theories • Figure 9.8 illustrates neoclassical growth theory.

13. Growth Theories • New Growth Theory • New growth theory holds that real GDP per person grows because of choices that people make in the pursuit of profit and that growth can persist indefinitely. • The theory emphasizes that • In a market economy, discoveries result from choices • Discoveries bring profit and competition destroys profit • Discoveries are a public capital good • Knowledge is not subject to diminishing returns

14. Growth Theories • Figure 9.9 illustrates new growth theory.

15. Growth Theories • Figure 9.10 summarizes the ideas of new growth theory as a perpetual motion machine.