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Agricultural Market Outlook

Agricultural Market Outlook. April 30, 2014. University of Missouri Extension. Weather Outlook. Pat Guinan. April 30, 2014. Unusually persistent cool period…. Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* January 2013 – April 2014.

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Agricultural Market Outlook

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  1. Agricultural Market Outlook April 30, 2014 University of Missouri Extension

  2. Weather Outlook Pat Guinan April 30, 2014

  3. Unusually persistent cool period… Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* January 2013 – April 2014

  4. Wetter April conditions in portions of the Midwest … Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Apr 1 – Apr 29, 2014 Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Departure from Mean Apr 1 – Apr 29, 2014 MRCC MRCC

  5. Radar Estimated Weekly Rainfall (in.) Apr 23 – Apr 29, 2014 Major Flooding

  6. 40-45°F 35-40°F 45-50°F 50-55°F 55-60°F 60-65°F 65-70°F

  7. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

  8. 7-day precipitation forecast beginning 7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr. 29 thru 7:00 p.m., Tue, May 6, 2014 1.5 2 0.5 3 .25 .01 1 2

  9. 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook May 5-9, 2014 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook May 5-9, 2014

  10. Weather Resources on the Internet http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/wealinks.htm Missouri Climate Center http://climate.missouri.edu River Information Resources for Missouri http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/river.htm

  11. Corn Outlook David Reinbott April 30, 2014

  12. Issues Impacting Prices on April 30 • Ukraine – Unrest & uncertainty • Planting Progress – 19% & 28% • Acres Planted – Change of 1- 2 million • U.S. Exports – Strong Exports

  13. Mar To Apr Change Supply & Demand: Corn +125 +125 -125 +0.10

  14. Change in Demand & E.S.

  15. Supply & Demand: Corn 2014-2015

  16. July 2014 Corn Futures $5.24

  17. July Weekly 2014 Corn Futures $5.94 $5.34

  18. December 2014 Corn Futures $5.17

  19. December Weekly 2014 Corn Futures $5.80 $5.30

  20. Cattle Outlook (title) Cattle Outlook Ron Plain April 30, 2014

  21. U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption 2012 per capita meat consumption the lowest since 1991 Source: USDA/ERS

  22. U.S. Cattle Inventory, January 1 2014: 87.73 million head, Down 1.8% Lowest inventory since 1951 Source: USDA/NASS

  23. January 2014 Cattle Inventory % of Year Ago All Cattle & Calves 98.2 Beef Cows 99.1 Dairy Cows 99.9 Beef Replace. Heifers 101.7 Dairy Replace. Heifers 99.7 Other Heifers 95.0 Steers 500 lbs & up 97.5 Calves under 500 lbs 96.3 Source: USDA/NASS

  24. U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly 2011 beef exports were record high

  25. Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly Source: USDA/ERS

  26. Thru mid April cattle slaughter was down 4.8%

  27. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  28. Thru mid April cow slaughter was down 8.9%

  29. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

  30. Cattle On Feed April 1 cattle on feed: down 0.6%

  31. Cost of gain is roughly $96/cwt Source: LMIC

  32. U.S. Commercial Beef Production Million Pounds -----% Change----- 2012-132013-14. - 1.8% - 4.9% . +0.7% - 3.6% . +0.3% - 4.3% . - 2.3% - 5.0% . - 0.8% - 4.4% *forecast Note: Q3 12 & Q1 13 & Q1 14 have only 63 slaughter days

  33. Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price, Monthly Average 2000-2014 Thru Aug 2015 all cattle futures contracts are above $135 per cwt

  34. OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price, Monthly Average 2000-2014 Thru Apr 2015 all feeder cattle futures contracts are above $180 per cwt

  35. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  36. Soybean Outlook David Reinbott April 30, 2014

  37. Issues Impacting Prices on April 30 • Ukraine – Unrest & uncertainty • U.S. Acres – plus 2 – 4 million acres • Chinese Defaults • Domestic Crush • U.S. Exports

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