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金融海嘯後的全球財富重分配 2011 宏觀流年

金融海嘯後的全球財富重分配 2011 宏觀流年. Ted Hong, Ph.D. July 2011. 前言摘要. 經過上次的金融風暴 , 對一位投資者來講 , 賺大錢已經不是最大的誘因 , 避免損失才是考量重點。風險控管變成投資的主軸。 投資者面臨的挑戰是如何控制風險，達到下一個景氣繁榮。 台灣有關當局以及銀行面對歐美需求降低、美國政府所可能採用的振興經濟新措施、中國硬著陸 以及 未來 新興產業 可能影響，準備好了嗎 ?. OVERVIEW: 大綱. SESSION I ： UPDATE ( 大起大落， 2011 全球大事件 )

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金融海嘯後的全球財富重分配 2011 宏觀流年

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  1. 金融海嘯後的全球財富重分配 2011 宏觀流年 Ted Hong, Ph.D. July 2011

  2. 前言摘要 經過上次的金融風暴, 對一位投資者來講, 賺大錢已經不是最大的誘因, 避免損失才是考量重點。風險控管變成投資的主軸。 投資者面臨的挑戰是如何控制風險，達到下一個景氣繁榮。 台灣有關當局以及銀行面對歐美需求降低、美國政府所可能採用的振興經濟新措施、中國硬著陸以及未來新興產業可能影響，準備好了嗎?

  3. OVERVIEW: 大綱 SESSION I：UPDATE (大起大落，2011全球大事件) Recent Event Update Global Economic Slowdown and the triangular relationship (全球經濟增長放緩) SESSION II：THE BANK’S ROLE IN THE NEXT BOOM (後證券化之市場趨勢) Bank’s Role (銀行未來的角色) The Next Boom (未來的新興產業) SESSION III：THE OPPORTUNITY LANDSCAPE (全球財富之重新分配) Think the unthinkable (美麗新世界) First priority: Control risk (控制風險，直達下一個景氣繁榮)

  4. SESSION I: 2011全球大事件 • Recent Event Update • Jasmine Movement (茉莉花運動：全球油價推升及原物料價格上漲) • Japan Fukushima nuclear crisis (日本福島核輻射污染：全球產業供應斷鏈危機) • Global Economic Slowdown and the triangular relationship (全球經濟增長放緩) • US recovery slowdown (美國景氣復甦減緩) • Europe sovereign debt crisis (歐洲主權信貸風暴升高) • China potential hard-landing (中國硬著陸的挑戰)

  5. 茉莉花運動人口金字塔理論 24.5 years 26.9 years Arab uprisings Tunisia Egypt Libya Bahrain Syria Yemen 36.9 years 44.8 years 6

  6. 茉莉花運動人口金字塔理論 : China 15-64 years: 66.0% Median age: 24.0 years 24.0 years 7

  7. 茉莉花運動人口金字塔理論 : China 15-64 years: 73.6% 15-64 years: 65.9% Median age: 35.5 years Median age: 23.8 years 35.5 years 8

  8. 日本福島核輻射污染 Economic Impact of Japan’s Fukushima nuclear crisis Industry Supply Chain 全球產業供應斷鏈危機 IT (Semiconductor, LED, & Consumer Electronics) Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Automotive Food & Beverage Contamination食物污染 Radioactive Effect of Japanese Yen Short-term appreciation (repatriation effect) Long-term depreciation 9

  9. International Stock Indices London Index: FTSE 100 Australia Index: AORD Dow Jones Industrial Average: DJI 12393 5945 4659 3512 (March 3, 2009) 3111 (March 2, 2009) 6547 (March 9, 2009) Japan Index: N225 Hang Seng Index: HSI Brazil Index: BVSP 22398 9816 11921 (March 2, 2009) 36741 (March 9, 2009) 7055 (March 10, 2009) Taiwan Index: TWII Shanghai: SSE CI (000001.SS) Russian Index: RTS.RS 8652 1907 2762 498 (Jan 23, 2008) 1728 (Oct. 27, 2008) 4637 (March 9, 2009) April 2008 – June 2011

  10. Commodity & Energy Markets2008Q2 - 2011Q2 Gold Price in USD/oz Crude Oil Price in USD extension Corn Price in USD S&P 500 Index

  11. Global Rates Watch 12

  12. US Financial Market vs. Bank Failure 1934-2011 RTC Era 1989-1996 157 failed Banks 2010 26 fails up to April 2011 Source: FDIC

  13. US Real Estate Market Watch

  14. US Bond Market: Treasury Curve Shift Source: Beyondbond

  15. Outstanding Level of U.S. Debt Source: SIFMA

  16. Issuance of US Mortgage Debt 17

  17. Global Economic Slowdown 跟著錢潮走-市場走向 • The triangular relationship (全球經濟增長放緩) • China’s potential hard-landing (中國硬著陸的挑戰) • U.S. recovery slowdown (美國景氣復甦減緩) • Europe sovereign debt crisis (歐洲主權信貸風暴升高)

  18. SESSION II: The Bank’s Role in the Next Boom • The Bank’s Role (銀行未來的角色) • Traditional lending (傳統借貸) • Government sponsored lending (政府贊助融資) • Online payment (網上付款) • Industries in The Next Boom (未來的新興產業) • Cyberspace: Social media related industry (社群網絡媒體) • Urbanization: LOHAS related industry (「樂活」相關行業) • Demographic: Real Estate industry

  19. The Next Boom: Social Media 社群網絡媒體 Let Social Media IPO Show Begin Market Cap: $7.8B Filling 1st Q of 2012 $25B Filed July1, 2011 $20B Filed June 2, 2011 Estimate CV: $50B IPOedMay 19, 2011

  20. Virtual vs. Traditional Enterprises Virtual Traditional Traditional: Similar cap, need to feed more Virtual: Less employees, produce more values

  21. The Next Boom: Urbanization • An ongoing trend for growing urbanized middle-class. • Taiwan and HK obviously are ahead of China. • China 1st tier cities are adopting those concepts very rapidly while 2nd tier are just realizing the ideas. It's however will affect democracy thought which is dangerous in its domestic politics. • The business thought that surround those ideas are growing bigger and are along with the theme of cyberspace service industry because LOHAS communities like leveraging social media to communicate ideas and form the trend.

  22. LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) 樂活族 • 健康、可持續的生活方式 • 生活特質 • 環保 • 節能 • 自然、精緻 • 健康 • Population: US 23% (50 million), Japan 29% (37 million) • Market Size in US: $355 billion in consumer sales • Green Technology • certified green buildings, Energy Star appliances, etc. • resource recovery and recycling • Alternative Energy • renewable power • alternative Transportation like hybrids, electric vehicles, car sharing, etc. • Natural Lifestyles • natural home furnishings, apparel, etc. • eco-tourism on excursions in nature • Personal Health • natural/organic food, personal care, supplements, etc.

  23. 樂活族遵循準則 (LOHAS) • 堅持自然溫和的輕慢運動。 • 不抽煙，也盡量不吸二手煙 。 • 電器不使用時關閉電源以節約能源。 • 盡量選擇有機食品和健康蔬食，避免高鹽，高油，高糖。 • 減少製造垃圾，實行垃圾分類和回收。 • 親近自然，選擇“有機”旅行。 • 注重自我，終身學習，關懷他人，分享樂活。 • 積極參加公益活動 ，如社區義工，支教等。 • 支持社會慈善事業，進行舊物捐贈和捐款。 • 節約用水，將馬桶和水龍頭的流量關小，一水多用。 • 向家人，朋友推薦與環境友善的產品。 • 減少一次性筷子和紙張的使用，珍惜森林資源。 • 減少對手機的使用。 • 穿天然棉麻絲材質的服裝。

  24. Real Estate (不動產不可缺席的角色)2010 US Household Annual Expenditure Source: Beyondbond

  25. 2010 China and Taiwan Household Annual Expenditure China (Urban) United States Taiwan

  26. Real Estate (不動產不可缺席的角色)2010 US Household Annual Expenditure 34.43% • Housing 15.61% • Transportation 12.99% • Food 11.15% • Insurance Pensions 10.45% • Everything Else 6.37% • Health care 5.49% • Entertainment 3.52% • Apparel and services

  27. 控制風險，直達下一個景氣繁榮 “The no. 1 job of a professional investor is not to make a lot of money, it’s to control risk.” - Howard Marks, Oak Tree Investment

  28. SESSION III：Beyond the Horizon 美麗新世界 • First priority: Control risk (控制風險，直達下一個景氣繁榮) • Real Estate bubble (不動產泡沫化) • Commodity bubble (資產泡沫化) • Internet bubble (網路泡沫化) • Public health outbreak (公共衛生事件) • New Globalization Game • The G2 in the G-20 • Role of IMF and World Bank (國際貨幣基金會及世界銀行的角色)

  29. Control Risk 避免風險 • Demographics and Real Estate 人口统计学周期與房地產 • 面對人口老化及少子化 Aging Population • Real Estate bubble 房地產泡沫: 人口统计学周期 • 人口增长的阶段，房价增长 • 人口老化并下降时，房价下跌 • Commodity bubble (資產泡沫化) • Internet bubble (網路泡沫化) • MCI • Enron

  30. Control Risk 避免風險 • Public Health Outbreaks 公共衛生事件 • Mad cow disease • 2003 SARS • 2006 E. Coli outbreak • 2008 中國毒奶粉事件(Melamine三聚氰胺) • 2009 H1N1 • 2011 臺灣飲料含毒塑化劑事件(DEHP塑化劑）

  31. G2 in G20: Global GDP Distribution 2000 vs. 2010 32

  32. Global Population vs. GDP 2010 in Cumulative % 33

  33. The IMF and World Bank 國際貨幣基金會及世界銀行的角色 • International Monetary Fund (IMF) & the World Bank were both founded at the UN Monetary and Financial Conference in 1944. • 182 member countries • Major Responses: • U.S. Savings and loan crisis (1986-95) • Japan banking crisis (1990-99) • Asian Banking crisis (1998-99) • U.S. subprime crisis (2007-present) • European sovereign debt crisis (2008-present)

  34. 投資不是奇蹟 我們喜歡什麼、討厭什麼， 其實自己清楚的很。 我們害怕的是，未知的未來； 期待的也是，夢幻的未來。 於是，用僅有的過去經驗，決定下一步。 然而，卻寄望每一步，都能出現驚喜。

  35. For Additional Information contact Ted@BeyondBond.com

  36. 個人小傳 Dr. Hong has more than twenty years research and structuring experience in the U.S. mortgages and securitization areas. Dr. Hong has published intensive residential and commercial mortgage research papers. He and his core team has provided intensive mortgage research, investment advisory, risk management tools, customized fixed income valuation analytics and trading technology for major financial institutions. In addition, Dr. Hong has advised financial regulators in Taiwan and China for the last years in securitization area. Dr. Ted Hong is currently the president of Beyondbond, Inc. In the past 10 years, Dr. Hong has provided fixed income research, investment and risk management analytics as well as trading platform for major global banks, investment banks, mortgage lenders, large private equity and hedge funds, fixed income exchanges, and clearing houses. Prior to that, Dr. Hong was a director at Nomura Securities International and oversaw analytics and securitization business in the mortgage areas. He and his core team members were instrumental in developing the commercial mortgage-backed securities industry and “jump-started the national real estate market” in the 1990’s according to Fortune Magazine. Dr. Hong has been repeatedly invited by regulators and financial institutions from Taiwan and China such as People’s Bank of China, Peking University, Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC), Central Bank of China, GreTai Securities Market, National Taiwan University, Asia Money, and Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance (TABF) to give numerous speeches with respect to the securitization markets. Dr. Hong is currently the senior advisor and consultant for regulators in Taiwan such as FSC, TABF, and GreTai.. Dr. Hong received his Ph.D. in Economics from University of California at San Diego. His specialized research topic was the non-stationary volatility modeling in the time series area. Dr. Hong had several research articles jointly published with Dr. Robert Engle, the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economics. His research piece such as “An Options Approach to Commercial Mortgages and CMBS Evaluation and Risk Analysis” has been repeatedly quoted and published. 洪哲雄博士為 Beyondbond 公司執行長。具有超過二十年有關資產證券化的發行、交易以及風險控管之實務經驗。 Beyondbond 為洪博士於1999 與野村證券合作創立之財務科技投資顧問公司。洪博士曾任職於日本野村證券，美國花旗銀行，及帝 國儲貸等機構。任職野村期間，洪博士專責住宅抵押借款和商業不動產證券化的硏究及發行，其商業不動產部門於九○年期間，穩居美國不動產證券化之龍頭，並為財星雜誌譽為CMBS 之開創先驅。野村目前為Beyondbond 的投資者和事業夥伴。 洪博士以其在財工及風控的市場實戰經驗﹐致力開發固定收益資產證券即時交易及風控平台。僅以一家全球性的投資銀行券商為例﹐目前每日在其平台處理交易之金額即超過兩佰億美元。其客戶層包括從投行、銀行、私募基金、對沖基金到政府機 構如 Nomura, HSBC, BlackStone, LoneStar, Brevan Howard, GinnieMae, 及DTCC。 近年來﹐從全球金融證券化市場的蓬勃發展到次貸金融危機，由於洪博士成功的預測金融危機，使其不斷受到政府及民間團體邀約，包括中國人行、北京大學、台灣大學、台灣央行、美國國會議員、美國保險學會等機構，為金融同業有關證券化議題與國際經濟現勢做不同層面之演講，並為台灣研訓院、金管會、聯徵、央行及美國國會議員、銀行存保機構、黑石私募提供政策面之諮詢顧問。 洪博士為加州大學聖地牙哥分校經濟系博士，其論文指導教授羅伯.恩格爾(Robert Engle) 為2003 年之諾貝爾經濟學領域得主，恩格爾教授並被譽為美國最有商業影響力的財經大師。師生二人曾多次相皆訪問亞洲演講並拜會各國首長。兩人有多篇共同著作，其研究成果常被固定收益資產證券專書出版。例如「商業抵押貸款和不動產證券化之評估和風險分析」專文即被一再反復引用及出版。

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