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Precipitation Frequency Estimates and Federal Responsibilities Geoff Bonnin NOAA’s National Weather Service Geoffrey.Bonnin@noaa.gov 301-713-0640 x103. Questions. Is the Fed Gov’t responsible for estimates? Who should do it? Regular document updates Supporting research

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  1. Precipitation FrequencyEstimatesand Federal ResponsibilitiesGeoff BonninNOAA’s National Weather ServiceGeoffrey.Bonnin@noaa.gov301-713-0640 x103

  2. Questions • Is the Fed Gov’t responsible for estimates? • Who should do it? • Regular document updates • Supporting research • Questions from the public • Who should pay? • How do we reach consensus and implement?

  3. Background? • Early 1950s • NWS nominated to make estimates for: • precipitation frequency • probable maximum precipitation • Consensus of Federal water agencies • NWS is independent – doesn’t pour concrete • De-facto National Standards • Referenced in federal, state, and local regulations • Traditional civil works to environmental management • Increasing demand for low frequencies; EPA’s NPDES • Performed At Request Of And Funded By Users • not included in NWS budget

  4. Documents Are Getting Old

  5. What is NWS Doing?

  6. New Capabilities in Use • New technologies • Regional L-moments • Confidence intervals • Updating depth-area-reduction (1957) • Probalistic temporal distributions • High resolution mapping • Web based point and click delivery • maps, charts, tables, GIS grids, documentation • Much more data is available • NWS integrated production line • Not a study – it is real • Patchwork, piecemeal studies • Not cost effective • Produce inconsistent results • NWS ready for cost effective national update • ~$1m/yr over 3 years

  7. Current Status • Precip Frequency Atlas Updates • Semiarid Southwest • published Aug 6 • Ohio Basin & Surrounding States • peer review completed Sept 14 • Puerto Rico & Hawaii; FY2004 • Probable Maximum Precipitation • No activity • Funding Pipeline Has Dried Up • NWS in danger of losing specialized expertise

  8. Requests From • Alaska • Dept of Transportation • National Transportation Research Board • Pacific Islands • Colorado • Twin Cities, Minnesota • Wisconsin/Michigan • Florida Counties • New York • FEMA • State Climatologists • Many Consultants

  9. Who Are the Federal Users? • USACE - regulation & design • FEMA – flood plain mapping • EPA – pollution discharge regulation (NPDES) • DOT/FHWA – hydrologic design • USDA/NRCS – design & erosion control • Forest Service – burned area remediation • USBR – design • ???

  10. Options • USACE continues funding • Split equally among 5-6 agencies • ~$200K/year • Folded into key current programs • FEMA; Flood Plain Mapping Initiative • EPA; NPDES

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