Ercot generation adequacy study
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ERCOT Generation Adequacy Study. TAC Meeting February 7, 2002. Background. RFP issued January 22, 2001 5 bidders Transmission Adequacy Consulting (Gene Preston) selected, and study begun in March Conducted under the direction of ERCOT ROS/PARWG with assistance from ERCOT System Planning

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ERCOT Generation Adequacy Study

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Ercot generation adequacy study

ERCOT Generation Adequacy Study

TAC Meeting

February 7, 2002


Background

Background

  • RFP issued January 22, 2001

  • 5 bidders

  • Transmission Adequacy Consulting (Gene Preston) selected, and study begun in March

  • Conducted under the direction of ERCOT ROS/PARWG with assistance from ERCOT System Planning

  • Performed in 3 phases


Phases i and ii

Phases I and II

  • Single area studies (several since 1960s)

  • Random, independent outages/deratings of generating units (NERC GADS data)

  • No unit maintenance (May - September)

  • HVDC and switchable units fully available to ERCOT

  • No transmission constraints

  • Representative hourly load shape

  • Service to firm load

  • Load forecast uncertainty effects examined


Phase i

Phase I

  • Performed to provide a correlation between ERCOT reserve level and reliability indices

  • Basic tasks

    • Develop FORs/DFORs

    • Calculate indices (5) for different reserve levels with and without load forecast uncertainty using 2000 generation

    • Present results graphically

  • One sensitivity study comparing high FOR resources to low FOR resources


Phase i results

Phase I Results


Phase ii

Phase II

  • Performed to establish the sensitivity of reliability indices to future generation additions

  • Basic tasks

    • Identify new generation planned for 2001 - 2003

    • Perform calculations similar to Phase I assuming different amounts of new generation

    • Examine with and without load forecast uncertainty


Phase ii results dots are 0 25 50 75 and 100 of new generation

Phase II Results (dots are 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of new generation)


Phase iii

Phase III

  • Performed to examine the sensitivity of reliability indices to transmission constraints

  • Basic tasks

    • Develop transmission FORs

    • Repeat the 100% new generation calculations of Phase II incorporating all meaningful transmission outages

    • Present results graphically

  • Two sensitivity studies

    • Effect of key transmission upgrades

    • 50% new generation calculation


Phase iii results

Phase III Results


Phase iii sensitivity test upgrade ten 345 kv ckts

Phase III Sensitivity Test – Upgrade Ten 345 kV Ckts


Phase iii sensitivity test 50 new planned generation

Phase III Sensitivity Test – 50% New Planned Generation


Study costs incurred

Study Costs Incurred

Budget Limit

NERC data $ 750

Phase I $ 14850 $40K

Phase I rerun $ 1350

Phase II $ 8737 $20K

Phase III $ 25200 $50K

Exp in 2002 $ ~3450

Total $~54337 $110K


Ros recommendations

ROS Recommendations

1. The installed reserve level in ERCOT should be calculated annually as the load ratio of demonstrated installed generating capacity (excluding 80% of wind and 80% of hydro generation) less forecasted load (excluding any load under formal agreement with ERCOT to be interrupted at any time, other than load controlled by high-set under-frequency relays, during generation or transmission capacity deficiency conditions), divided by that same net forecasted load.

2. The installed reserve level in ERCOT, as calculated in 1. above, should be maintained at no less than 15%.

3. A significant contribution by a transmission constraint to ERCOT Loss of Load Expectation (as calculated in periodically performed generation adequacy studies) should be considered in the designation of mitigating transmission projects as constraint relief projects by ERCOT.

4. Generation adequacy studies for ERCOT should be performed in any year in which the installed reserve margin, as calculated in 1. above, is less than 17% but no less frequently than every 5 years.


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