Hydrological drought sensitivity to land use changes in a Northwestern Mexico River Basin Francisco Munoz-Arriola 1 Chunmei Zhu 1 , Andrea Ray 2 and Dennis P. Lettenmaier 2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
Cross Wavelet Transform
Squared Wavelet Coherence
Evaluation of Simulated Streamflow
Land-use changes can strongly affect streamflow generation. In most cases, deforestation and agricultural intensification increase streamflow while afforestation reduces it. In semi-arid basins, such as the Yaqui River basin (YRB) in Northwestern Mexico, changes in streamflow generation may impact the sustainability of the region's agricultural practices. Water resources in the YRB are influenced by different climate-phenomena, such as the North American Monsoon, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and by anthropogenic activities. Here we evaluate the sensitivity of drought events in the YRB to land use changes under different climatological conditions. Periods were identified where the ENSO and the PDO influence the temporal variability of streamflow from 1949 to 1999, using wavelet analysis. The drought events, which were influenced by these oscillations, were identified using runoff-percentile anomalies. Increments of the agricultural and afforestation practices were implemented as boundary conditions, and used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) to simulate the hydrological surface components of the YRB. Droughts during the non-monsoon months of La Niña and the warm phase of the PDO years were sensitive to increase in crop land-use in the northernmost part of the YRB. The rest of the basin observed an increase in runoff, which reduced the drought occurrence. Drought sensitivity to afforestation was higher during the monsoon months. In neutral years followed by El Niño and in years during the cold phase of the PDO, drought sensitivity to afforestation was the highest during the monsoon months.
Stream Flow (106 cfs)
STATEMENT OF PURPOSE: To assess the streamflow drought sensitivity to land use changes under different climatic regimes in the Yaqui river basin
Three sub basins of the Yaqui River basin were evaluated, Angostura and Paso Nacori, considered natural streamflows and Oviachi a streamflow diverted for water storage (hydropower generation and irrigation).
Gulf of Mexico
Sierra Mafre Occidental
Gulf of California
Gulf of California
Warm PDO: (1947-1976)
Cold PDO: (1977-1995)
Pre-Monsoon: (January, February, March, April, May)
Monsoon: (June, July, August, and September)
Post-Monsoon: (Octuber, November, and December)
Small- mid- (El Niño [EN], La Niña [LN], and neutral [N] years), and large-scale clime conditions (warm and cold PDO)were identified using the squared wavelet coherency (Grinsted et al. 2004) and information in literature, observed in the climatological composites of simulated streamflow (Larkin et al 2004 and Mantua et al 1997). Monsoon months were assumed June, July, August, and September, the rest of the months are non-monsoon months.
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MunozArriola, F., D. Lettenmaier, C. Zhu..and R. Avissar. Hydrological Response to Land Use Change in the Yaqui River Basin (submitted, Water Resources Research)
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