2013 cattle market situation and outlook
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2013 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook. Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Livestock Marketing Specialist. 2012 Recap. Widespread drought in U.S. Continued herd liquidation Not as severe in Oklahoma this summer Limited water and forage for winter

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2013 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook

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2013 cattle market situation and outlook

2013 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook

Derrell S. Peel

Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Livestock Marketing Specialist


2012 recap

2012 Recap

  • Widespread drought in U.S.

    • Continued herd liquidation

    • Not as severe in Oklahoma this summer

      • Limited water and forage for winter

  • Record high grain and forage prices

  • Record high cattle prices

    • Reduced cow-calf profitability

    • Poor feedlot and packer margins

  • Higher wholesale and retail beef prices

    • Limited beef demand

    • Weaker beef exports


2013 cattle market situation and outlook 1180305

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS


2013 cattle market situation and outlook 1180305

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS


2013 cattle market situation and outlook 1180305

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


2013 cattle market situation and outlook 1180305

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


2013 cattle market situation and outlook 1180305

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS


2013 cattle market environment

2013 Cattle Market Environment

  • Continued drought?

    • More liquidation

  • …Or normal weather

    • More heifer retention

  • Tighter cattle supplies…into 2014

  • Beef demand is the key unknown

    • tied to general economy


2013 cattle market situation and outlook 1180305

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Calculations by Derrell Peel


2013 cattle market expectations

2013 Cattle Market Expectations

  • Cattle and beef prices pushed higher by limited supplies

    • Beef production down by 4-4.5%

  • Beef demand will limit price increases

  • Question is “How much higher?”

  • Moderation in feed prices

  • Higher cow and heifer prices (if no drought)

    • Breeding cow and heifer demand


2013 cattle market situation and outlook 1180305

Commercial Beef Production

Total Cattle Inventory

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


Cattle sector implications

Cattle Sector Implications

  • Cow-calf

    • Good profit potential; cost management key

    • Rebuilding strategy and costs

    • Producer transition

  • Stocker

    • Good value of gain

  • Feedlots and packers will continue to struggle

    • Loss of capacity likely

  • Production challenges bigger than marketing challenges


Price weight relationship medium large no 1 steers 7 oklahoma auctions

Price-Weight RelationshipMedium/Large No. 1 Steers, 7 Oklahoma Auctions


Steer price total value and value of gain november 9 2012 7 auction oklahoma

Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain November 9, 2012, 7 Auction, Oklahoma


2013 cattle market situation and outlook 1180305

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


Agricultural economics

Agricultural Economics


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