Australia s likely future climate and impacts
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Australia’s likely future climate and impacts. Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship. Penny Whetton IPAA March 2010. Global average temperatures are rising. CRU, UEA. CSIRO Climate change: the latest science. Causes of observed warming. IPCC 2001.

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Australia s likely future climate and impacts

Australia’s likely future climate and impacts

Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship

Penny Whetton

IPAA March 2010


Global average temperatures are rising

Global average temperatures are rising

CRU, UEA

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Causes of observed warming

Causes of observed warming

IPCC 2001

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Global impact of future emissions

Global impact of future emissions

Garnaut Report (2008)

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Future temperature changes

Future temperature changes

Global warming by 2100:

450 ppm:

0.8 – 2.1 °C

550 ppm:

1.1 – 2.7 °C

No mitigation:

2.4 – 6.4 °C

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Future temperature changes1

Future temperature changes

Global warming by 2100:

450 ppm:

0.8 – 2.1 °C

550 ppm:

1.1 – 2.7 °C

No mitigation:

2.4 – 6.4 °C

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Future rainfall changes

Future rainfall changes

IPCC 2007

Precipitation increase in ≥90% of simulations

Precipitation decrease in ≥75% of simulations

Precipitation increase in ≥75% of simulations

Precipitation decrease in ≥90% of simulations

More rainfall, except drier in mid-latitudes (including southern Australia)

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Sea level rise will continue

Sea-level rise will continue

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Australia s climate has changed

Australia’s climate has changed

Temperature: greatest warming in eastern and central Australia, with more extremely hot days and fewer frosts

Rainfall: wetter in the northwest and drier in the southwest and east

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Future changes in average temperature

Future changes in average temperature

2030: 0.6 to 1.5°C warmer for a medium emissions scenario

2070: 1.0 to 2.5°C warmer for a low emissions scenario

2070: 2.2 to 5°C warmer for a high emissions scenario

Small changes in average temperature have a big effect on extreme daily temperatures

°C

Median warming in 2030, relative to 1990, for a medium emissions scenario

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Future changes in average rainfall

Future changes in average rainfall

  • Annual rainfall in 2030

  • Southern Aus: 0 to -10%

  • Northern Aus: +5 to -10%

Largest rainfall decreases in winter and spring

Increased drought extent and frequency in the south

Heavier rain-storms in summer and autumn, little change in winter and spring

Median % rainfall change in 2030, relative to 1990, for a medium emissions scenario (stippling shows where at least 67% of models agree on the direction of change)

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Future cyclones and storm surges

Future cyclones and storm surges

Stronger tropical cyclones, with uncertainty about changes in frequency

Larger oceanic storm surges, superimposed on sea-level rise

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Potential impacts

Potential impacts

Water security problems are likely to intensify in southern and eastern Australia

Around 9% less water in the northern Murray Darling Basin (MDB) by 2030, and 13% less in the southern MDB

Greater risks for coastal flooding from sea-level rise and storm surges

Area inundated by a 1-in-100 year storm surge in Cairns is likely to double by 2050

Significant loss of biodiversity in sensitive areas

By 2020, bleaching and damage to Great Barrier Reef equivalent to that in 1998 and 2002 in up to 50% of years

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Potential impacts1

Potential impacts

Greater risks to major infrastructure due to increases in extreme weather events, including bush fire

More damage to buildings, transport services, energy services, telecommunications and water services

More heat-related deaths for people aged over 65

1115 deaths per year at present in the 5 largest capital cities, increasing to 2300-2500 per year by 2020

Reduced production in agriculture and forestry in south and east

National wheat yield: +10% to -50% by 2070

Reduced grape quality by 2030

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Seeking solutions to the climate change challenge

Seeking solutions to the climate change challenge

  • Mitigation

  • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to address the cause of climate change;

  • Adaptation

  • Preparing for the impacts of climate change;

  • Aim is to reduce the negative consequences, take advantage of any possible opportunities.

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Responding to climate change

Responding to climate change

Higher impacts and adaptation later

Low mitigation now

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Responding to climate change1

Responding to climate change

Higher impacts and adaptation later

High mitigation now

Low mitigation now

Lower impacts and adaptation later

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


Australia s likely future climate and impacts

Penny Whetton

Phone: +61 3 9239 4535

Email: [email protected]

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

Presenter’s name

Presenter’s title

Phone: +61 3 9545 2176

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.cmar.csiro.au

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

Presenter’s name

Presenter’s title

Phone: +61 3 9545 2176

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.cmar.csiro.au/group

Thank you

Thank you

Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au

Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science


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