Investigating “Hider” Theory

1. Investigating “Hider” Theory New Horizons in Search Theory4th Workshop

2. Presentations • Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD)Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito • Group 2: ASW and Other Military ExamplesMichelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt

3. Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD) Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito

4. General Competitive Context Hider, Searcher with active strategies Not necessarily mirror image strategies Forces, Elements Involved (all have some signature) Organization Policy makers, financiers, scientists, technicians, deliverers, suppliers Communications, contracts, policies, links, social networks, trust, fear, etc. Resources Could be outwardly benign, particularly in isolation e.g., site, money, raw materials, recipe, etc. Could be virtual, distributed Process Arrangement of resources and organization to produce contraband Contraband End product of a process Environmental Considerations Size of the thing and the area in which it is hidden Background (ambient noise in the environment) Backyard (familiarity with background) Neutral or unrelated activity (affects positively or negatively) Clutter, evasion, deception, decoy, camouflage Operational Context GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

5. Hide what? Organization, resources, process or contraband Specifically undeclared WMD Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosive Stockpile volume equivalent to a 3-car garage Hide where? Within a country With exceptions, e.g., resources, people, money can go global Hide why? Because it is illegal Prevent sanctions Protect sovereignty Surprise Obscure scale Ambiguity about intentions, capability, size of arsenal, readiness Protect stockpile For later use, survivability, prevent theft, sale value, deterrent value Affect world/regional/local opinion Sympathy for regime if WMD remains hidden Affect political events (e.g., 2004 US election) Support larger political strategy Hide when? For months or years Operational Problem GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

6. Major Process Elements • What are the major factors that impact hider success? • What are the relationships between these major factors? • Are any of these substantially greater than the others? GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

7. Process Diagram ORGANIZATION PROCESS CONTRABAND RESOURCES GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

8. Network Strategy 400 300 Number of Buttons Connected 200 100 0 0 0.5 0.6 Kauffman, At Home in the Universe, p.57 Ratio of Buttons to Strings

9. Insights and Conclusions • Many of the parts are in plain sight • Links are often the things that are telling • Hider needs “invisible thread” • Search for contraband very like ASW • Hider relies on big area/small stockpile • Hider relies on knowledge or searcher’s capabilities, location • High combinatoric space to hide in • Network of org + resources GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

10. Group 2: ASW and Other Military Examples Michelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt

11. Potential Operational Scenarios • Orange ASUW on Blue HVU (Carrier) • Transiting • Flights Operations • “Dipping Game” • SOF Scenario – Minimize hiding discontinuities (hiders coming from a hider) • Submarine vs. submarine example • Searcher who is also a hider • Differences in hiding between nuclear, diesel and AIP subs • “The Great Scud Hide” • Any type of mobile missile launchers (TELs, Soviet nuclear trucks) • Mine fields • SSBN Example • Our mission is to hide GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

12. Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier • General competitive context • Orange trying to sink Blue Carrier in one of two scenarios, transiting to an operational area and carrier flight operations in a coastal area • Forces, elements involved • Orange • Subs • OIA- Other Information Assets (aircraft to cue subs, etc.) • Blue • Carrier (PRIMARY HIDER) - a big ship in a bigger ocean • Subs • Helicopters • Other Information Assets (surface escorts, air, satellites, etc.) • Environmental considerations • Water depth, distance from coastline, conditions of the body of water (salinity, temperature, bottom type, etc.) GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

13. Operational Context: Submarine Attack on Carrier GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

14. Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier • Describe the specific Hider application • Hide what? • The PRIMARY HIDER is the Blue Carrier • SECONDARY HIDERS include the Orange Sub & Blue Sub • Hide where? • Transiting to the area of operations • Operating off the coast of a hostile country • Hide why? • To provide air operations • Hide when? • For duration of transit and of air operations—and return transit GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

15. Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Pseudo-Facts P = 1 – e-2RVT/A GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

16. Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Real Math • Is his sub going to find my sub before my sub finds his carrier? • Some math: given three exponential processes w/ rates γ1 , γ2, and γ3, the probability that event i has happens first is: • The γ’s are the various 2RVT/A’s. GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

17. Major Process Elements • Hide How? • What are the major factors that impact hider success? • Standoff distance from the shore, farther out you are the better you can hide • Predictability of carrier movement, both during transit and during flights operations (like to turn into the wind) • What are the relationships between these major factors? • Are any of these substantially greater than the others? GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

18. Insights and Conclusions • The importance of the duality of the searcher/hider • The notion of split personality • Each has its own behavior • However, there are links between the searcher/hider aspects of the personality • There is a network of interactions searchers and hiders • Local vs. global behavior • Change of behavior based on local interactions • What would be the applicability of agent-based models to Hider theory? GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

19. Alidade Services