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Cherwell

Cherwell. Overview of evidence 2017 v1: released 31/10/17. District Data Analysis Service Bella Image, iimage@oxford.gov.uk. Index. 1. Population 2. Travel 3. Economy a. Enterprises b. Employment 4. Welfare & Benefits 5. Education & Skills 6. Housing 7. Deprivation

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Cherwell

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  1. Cherwell Overview of evidence 2017 v1: released 31/10/17 District Data Analysis Service Bella Image, iimage@oxford.gov.uk

  2. Index 1. Population 2. Travel 3. Economy a. Enterprises b. Employment 4. Welfare & Benefits 5. Education & Skills 6. Housing 7. Deprivation 8. Crime 9. Health (Hover over a word, right click, and press ‘L’)

  3. Can’t find what you need in this data pack? Try one of the following : • District Data website • Charts of the Month (data for whole county) • Cherwell data homepage • Cherwell reports for small areas (parishes, wards etc) • Local Insight(ask the District Data Analyst for a password) • JSNA (Joint Strategic Needs Assessment) for Oxfordshire • Health Profiles • Strategic Intelligence Assessment (crime data) • …or the District Data Analyst will be happy to help! Bella Image (part-time) iimage@oxford.gov.uk 07483 011 142

  4. populatioN Cherwell

  5. Population: growth In mid-2016, Cherwell’s total population was estimated at 146,338. Between 2004 and 2016, the population has grown by 14,350 people or 10.9%. CHART: Population of Cherwell, 2001-2016 Source: ONS, 2016 mid-year estimates

  6. Population change • Cherwell’s population estimate increased by 788 people between 2015 and 2016. • Most (88%) of this increase has been from natural change (births minus deaths). • Migration can be divided into: • Internal migration (from within the UK): net outflow of 292 persons • International migration: net inflow of 314 persons • In all, migration accounts for only 22 persons or 3% of Cherwell’s population increase. CHART: Population change, 2015 to 2016 Source: ONS 2016 mid year estimates

  7. Population change: international immigration At the 2011 Census, 11% of Cherwell residents were born outside the UK. • Between 2001 and 2011, the total number of Cherwell residents born outside the UK increased from 9,300 to 16,100. This is an increase of 73%. • The individual country with the biggest change was Poland. The number of Cherwell residents born in Poland increased from 48 to 781. CHART: Country of birth of Cherwell residents, 2001 to 2011 – selected countries Sources: ONS Census 2001 table UV08; Census 2011 table QS203

  8. Distribution of age groups In Cherwell, 63% of the population are working age (16-64). This is very close to the England proportion. The proportion of the population which is working-age has been declining since around 2006, due largely to the growth in those aged 65+. Age 65+: 17% Working Age: 63% Age 0-15: 20% CHART1: Distribution of different ages CHART2: Working Age as a proportion of the population

  9. Population by ward, 2015 In 2015, the largest ward in Cherwell was Banbury Grimsbury & Castle (11,610 residents). Key urban areas: • Banbury 47,917 (15% aged 65+) • Bicester 31,193 (13% aged 65+) • Kidlington 13,898 (20% aged 65+) In five wards, a quarter or more of the population is aged over 65 (Adderbury, Banbury Easington, Cropredy, Deddington, Sibford). Note: these figures (2015) do not add up to the overall estimate of Cherwell population (2016). TABLE: Population by ward, 2015 Source: ONS, SAPE18 DT8, mid-year 2015

  10. Rural vs urban population • Cherwell is the 14th most rural district in the South East region (out of 67). • It has a density 2.5 people per hectare compared with 4.7 people per hectare across the South East and 5.0 across England. • The 2011 Census suggested that 69% of Cherwell’s population lives in urban contexts, while 31% live in rural contexts. • However, due to building programmes this will now have changed. CHART: Cherwell rural vs. urban population, 2011 Census Sources: Population from ONS 2015 mid-year population estimates . Hectares from ONS Census 2011 table KS101

  11. Population projections Cherwell is projected to have a population of 166,000 in 2039. • In 2039, older people (65+) are expected to make up 26% of the population. The number of older people will have increased by 75% since 2014. Data note: This graph uses sub-national population projections (SNPPs) published by the ONS. These do not allow for scheduled house-buildingwithin local areas. 2039: population 166,000 2014: population 145,000 Source: ONS 2014-based SNPPs

  12. Aging population: the oldest group • Proportionally, those aged 85+ represented 2% of the district’s total population in 2014. • This is around the same as the England rate. • By 2039, the number of people aged 85+ in Cherwell is expected to reach 8,800. • This is 5% of the local population. • Thus, the number of individuals aged 85+ will grow by 284% between 2014 and 2039. CHART: Proportion of the population that is aged 85+ Source: ONS 2014-based SNPPs

  13. TRAVEL & COMMUTING

  14. Commuting: location of work, 2011 Working within Cherwell (incl. homeworking / no regular place of work) 49,065 Commuting out 26,184 Commuting in 23,206 The number of commuters increased by 8% between 2001 and 2011. In 2011, Cherwell had net commuting outflows of 2978 persons. Source: ONS 2001 Census table T103 and T10; 2011 Census table WU03

  15. Commuting: distance to work Cherwell residents are less likely to have a long commute if they live in or near Oxford or a Cherwell town (Banbury /Bicester /Kidlington). Rural Cherwell residents are more likely to have a long commute. This is particularly true in the north of the district, where residents may be more likely to commute within Oxfordshire or to cities such as Coventry, Northampton or Milton Keynes. Source: Census 2011, Table LC606 Map Scale (km) 0km 5km 10km

  16. Commuting: mode of travel CHART: Commuting to work in Cherwell Source: Census 2011, QS701EW At the 2011 Census 70,072 Cherwell residents were commuting to work outside their home. • Of these, 8% used public transport, 74% were in a car and 16% were cycling or on foot. • Nationally 13% use public transport. Changes since 2011 are not available for Cherwell specifically but factsheets for 2016 (including on school runs and shopping trips) can be found on the National Transport Survey website.

  17. Home Working MAP: Home working as a proportion of those economically active by LSOA Across Cherwell, 5% of workers work from home (compared to 3% nationally and 4% in the South East). As elsewhere in the county, homeworking is highest in rural areas. In Cherwell district, the LSOA with the lowest rate of homeworking is in Banbury Ruscote (1.3%). The LSOA with the highest homeworking is in the countryside around Hook Norton (20.2%). Lower layer super output areas (LSOAs) are areas used mainly for reporting statistical data. They have an average of around 1,500 residents and 650 households. Source: ONS Census 2011 table QS701

  18. Car ownership This is more marked for lone older households (where a person 65+ lives alone). 52% of lone older households (3,100 older people) have no car. • Of those who live rurally, over a third have no car. • In urban areas, three-fifths have no car. In 2011, 16% of Cherwell households had no car. (The England figure is 26%). Urban households were more likely not to have a car. CHART: % of Cherwell households without access to a car Source: ONS Census 2011

  19. The economy: ENTERPRISES Cherwell

  20. Enterprises CHART: Number of enterprises by sector, Cherwell 2016 In Cherwell, in 2016, 88% of enterprises are ‘micro’ (ie. with 0-9 employees). • This is similar to the England proportion of 89%. A further 10%of enterprises are ‘small’ (ie. with 10-49 employees). • This is similar to the England proportion of 9%. Any given enterprise may have more than one local unit. 6,545 enterprises Source: Business Counts, Nomis 12/05/17

  21. CHART: Distribution of enterprises across Cherwell, 2016, by MSOA Source: UK Business Counts, Nomis Enterprises, by MSOA In 2016, in Cherwell, …the area with the greatest number of enterprises was in Banbury (775). …the area with the smallest number of enterprises was also in Banbury (75). Any enterprise may have more than one local unit (premises). Definition: MSOAs (middle layer super output areas) are used for reporting Census data. They have an average of around 7,500 residents and 3,000 households.

  22. Enterprises: births & deaths Births. Since 2010 there has been an increasing number of new businesses in Cherwell. • In 2015 there were 11 new businesses per 100 existing enterprises. This is lower than the national rate (15 births per 100 businesses). Deaths. Since 2010 deaths have remained roughly the same. • There were 8 deaths per 100 businesses (compared to 10 per 100 nationally).

  23. The economy: EMPLOYMENT Cherwell DRAFT

  24. Employment: numbers of jobs There are a number of sources of jobs data for Cherwell. The table below shows the latest data with a note of what is included within each dataset.

  25. Employment: jobs through time Job Density: There are around 0.89 jobs per person aged 16-64. There are more jobs per person in Cherwell compared to England (0.84) or the South East (0.86). Number of jobs: according to ‘ONS Jobs’, in 2015 there were 82,000 jobs in Cherwell. This is fewer than in 2013, but otherwise higher than the average for the last decade. CHART: Count of jobs in Cherwell Source: ONS from Nomis “Jobs Density”

  26. Employment: number of employees GRAPH: Count of business employees, Cherwell 2015 Source: ONS Business Register and Employment survey In 2015, businesses in Cherwell employed 72,000 people, of whom 44% were part time. (NB this excludes the self-employed). Since 2009, full-time employment in Cherwell has increased by 4%. Part-time employment has been roughly stable. Definitions: “Full-time”: those working more than 30 hours per week. “Part-time”: those working 30 hours or fewer per week. Definitions: “Employee” is anyone aged 16+ that an organization pays directly from its payroll, in return for a full- or part-time job or training scheme. It excludes the self-employed, voluntary workers, working owners who are not paid via PAYE.

  27. Employees: occupations In Cherwell, 47.7% of employees are in professional or managerial occupations. This is higher than the national average (45.5%) but lower than the regional average (49.7%). Source: Nomis area profiles

  28. Employment: national comparison Source: ONS Annual Population Survey As measured by the Annual Population Survey, when considering the working age population: • 66% is employed; • 9% is self-employed; • In all, 79% of the working aged are employed or self-employed. This has been higher than the national average for over a decade. However since 2015 the proportion has fallen below the employment rate for Oxfordshire. GRAPH: Proportion of those 16-64 who are employed or self-employed

  29. Self-employment In Cherwell in 2011, 15% of those in employment were self employed. • Men are more likely than women to be self-employed. • Those in rural areas are more likely to be self-employed than those in cities. • Also older people are more likely to be self-employed than younger people. • In Cherwell, of workers aged 60+, 27% are self-employed. • This compares to 8% of workers aged 25-29. • (However, far fewer older people are economically active).

  30. Unemployment CHART: Unemployment (model-based) Source: Labour Force Survey In Mar-17, the Cherwell unemployment rate was 3.3% . • (This is the number of people out of work, divided by the number of economically active individuals aged 16+). • This was equivalent to 2,500 persons unemployed. Unemployment in all Oxfordshire rural districts has been consistently below England’s unemployment for over a decade.

  31. Employees: Job Sectors CHART: Employment by sector In 2015, • 24% of Cherwell employees were in Trade (England 16%). • The next largest sectors were Admin (12%; England 9%) and Manufacturing (11%; England 8%). • Conversely, compared to the England proportions Cherwell employs fewer people in ‘IT, financial & property’ and in Education. Cherwell 2015: 72,000 jobs Since 2009, • The number of people in trade has grown by 20% (compared to 4% growth nationally). • The number of jobs in Admin, Construction and Hospitality has declined. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey

  32. Earnings: full-time GRAPH: Median weekly earnings for full-time workers In 2016, the median gross earnings of full-time employees resident in Cherwell was £583 per week (equivalent to around £31,290 a year). This is higher than the national average, and similar to the average for the South East. Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 02/05/17 England average: £545

  33. Earnings: part-time GRAPH: Part time workers: (a) average earnings and (b) average hours worked In 2016, the median gross earnings of part-time employees resident in Cherwell was £184 per week. This was based on an average of 18.6 hours per week, at £9.99 an hour. Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 02/05/17

  34. NINO registrations: breakdown in 2016 In 2016, 1390 overseas nationals based in Cherwell registered for a National Insurance number. 77% were aged 18 to 34. 59% came from EU countries other than the EU15. (This mostly means ‘accession’ countries and/or those in Eastern Europe.) CHART: Number of NINO registrations in Cherwell Source: DWP Stat X-plore, 02/05/17 Definition of “EU-other”: Estonia, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, Malta, Cyprus, Croatia

  35. NINO registrations: change through time CHART: Number of NINO registrations in Cherwell, 2002-2016 Source: DWP Stat X-plore, 02/05/17 From 2013 there has been a growth in the number of NINO registrations. In 2016 there were 15% more registrations than the previous year. However, Brexit may affect the pattern in future years. NINo registrations are issued (a) for all types of work, incl. self-employed & part-time students (b) whatever the length of stay in the UK (c) to adult overseas nationals needing to claim benefits or tax credits.

  36. WELFARE & BENEFITS Cherwell

  37. Benefit claimants: client groups (working-age) In Nov-16, there were 6,340 working-age benefit claimants in Cherwell. • Of these, 57% are in the category “Employment Support Allowance or other incapacity benefits”. In Cherwell, 6.9% of the working-age population are on benefits. • This is lower than the rate England (10.7%). CHART: Categories of benefit claimants, Nov-2016 Source: DWP working-age client group data, accessed through Nomis

  38. Benefit claimants: proportion of population (working age) In Cherwell in Nov-16, 6.9% of working-age residents today are on benefits • This is the same as in Aug-99. In England, today’s figure is 10.7% compared to 14.2% in 1999. CHART: Proportion of working-age population claiming benefits Source: DWP working-age client group data, accessed through Nomis

  39. Jobseekers: June 2017 GRAPH: Claimants as % of economically active population, Jun-13 and Jun-17 Source: DWP through Nomis In June 2017, in Cherwell, 0.7% of economically active people were on unemployment benefit. This compares with a national average of 2.3%.

  40. Jobseekers: Change through time GRAPH: Cherwell Claimant Count, Jan-13 to Jun-17 In June 2017, 530 Cherwell residents were claiming benefits in respect of worklessness (either Jobseeker’s Allowance or Universal Credit). Feb 2013 1515 Jun 2017 530 Source: DWP (Nomis), 14/07/17

  41. EDUCATION & SKILLS Cherwell

  42. GCSE attainment CHART: Proportion of pupils achieving 5 GCSEs A*-C, incl. Maths & English In 2014/15, 58% of KS4 pupils resident in Cherwell attained the benchmark of 5+ A*to C grades including English and Maths. This is around the same as the national average. Source: Department for Education, 2014/15 results NOTE: data excludes pupils in private schools

  43. GCSE results at Cherwell schools North Oxfordshire Academy had the lowest rate of pupils achieving this measure. However, this school also had a high number of disadvantaged pupils (almost two-fifths). In 2014/5, 58% of Cherwell pupils achieved 5 or more A*-C GCSEs (incl. English & Maths). This is slightly above the national average. 15% disadvantaged 23% disadvantaged 39% disadvantaged 23% disadvantaged 16% disadvantaged 18% disadvantaged CHART: Proportion of pupils achieving 5 GCSEs A*-C, incl. Maths & English Source: Department for Education (2014/15 results)

  44. Free School Meals: attainment There was a gap of 32 percentage points between FSM and non-FSM pupils (the ‘attainment gap’). This is higher than the England attainment gap of 27 percentage points. In Cherwell in Aug-14, 26% of resident FSM pupils achieved five GCSEs A*-C (including English and Mathematics). This is lower than the national rate of 34%. England FSM average CHART: Proportion of pupils achieving 5 GCSEs A*-C, incl. Maths & English Source: Neighbourhood Statistics, based on Aug-14 results

  45. Free School Meals: non-attainment In Aug-14, in Cherwell, 31% of pupils on free school meals did not achieve 5 GCSEs (A*-G) at end of Key Stage 4. This is almost twice the national figure of 17%. CHART: Proportion of pupils who do not achieve 5 GCSEs Source: Neighbourhood Statistics, based on Aug-14 results

  46. NEETs (Not in Education, Employment or Training) In Apr 2017 2.0% of young people in Cherwell were classed as NEETs. The proportions are currently very similar across the Oxfordshire districts. CHART: NEETs in Cherwell Source: Oxfordshire County Council, Early Intervention Service Definition: NEETs are young people aged 17-19 (Years 12 to 14) who are not in education, employment or training.

  47. Proportion of Cherwell residents with NVQ4+ has increased 2004 2015 Bars: Cherwell Crosses: England In 2004, 28% of Cherwell residents were at NVQ4 or NVQ5 (indicating a BA degree /higher diploma or above). This was similar to the national average of 26%. Source: Annual Population Survey, via Nomis In 2015, 36% of Cherwell residents were at NVQ4+. This is similar to the national average of 37%.

  48. Housing Cherwell

  49. Housing: Cherwell key facts Average 10 year price increase : 160% 56,700 households (Census 2011) Average house price: £300k 69% of households own their property (England 63%) 12% of households are in socially rented property (England 18%) Source: House price & increase: ONS, HPSSA table 9. Renting /ownership info: Census 2011.

  50. Social rented sector: occupancy CHART: Occupancy of social rented households by number of bedrooms (2011) Single-person social rented households in Cherwell occupied: • 78% of 1 bed • 31% of 2 bed • 17% of 3 bed • 12% of 4 bed or more

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