May 31, 2007

1. Regional Florida Catastrophic Planning:Focus on South Florida and the Herbert Hoover Dike Region May 31, 2007

2. Overview of Florida Catastrophic Planning Project Goals Phase 1: To develop a regional response and recovery annex for the counties and communities surrounding Lake Okeechobee in the event of a Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD) failure Phase 2: To develop a regional response and recovery annex for a catastrophic hurricane impacting South Florida

3. Overview of Florida Catastrophic Planning Project Purpose • Direct technical assistance to target counties • Planning Team will assist the State in a host of planning activities • Conduct workshops, meetings & research • Coordinate w/State, local, tribal, private enterprise, non-profit, critical infrastructure, and Federal stakeholders • Ensure a “local up” approach that results in regionally sound, comprehensive and cohesive planning efforts

4. Overview of Florida Catastrophic Planning Project Purpose • Develop decision matrices & identify resource shortfalls that can focus additional planning activities • Examine policies and procedures to identify challenges to coordinated response and recovery activities Up Next - Rand Napoli, Lead Planner

5. Local Planning Begun Tribal Plans Tribal CEMP

6. Technical Assistance • 2 member FEMA team • 1 Technical Lead • 7 member Florida team • 3 working w/Tallahassee • 4 assigned to South Florida

7. Workshops & Exercises • November 2006 – HHD Kickoff • February 2007 – Regional Workshop joining Phase 1 and Phase 2 • March 15, 2007– Agency Head & Emergency Coordinating Officer Project Orientation • April 2007 – State-Level Workshop

8. Workshops & Exercises • May 2007 – Statewide Hurricane Exercise • June 2007 – Regional Workshop in Miami-Dade (local focus) • Fall 2007 – State-Federal Workshop • Winter 2007/2008 – Second Regional Workshop • Spring 2008 – Target Completion & Preparation for Statewide Exercise in May of ‘08 Up Next – Carla Boyce, Plans Chief – FDEM

9. Comprehensive – Cohesive Planning, Complimenting Concurrent Efforts

10. Comprehensive – Cohesive Planning, Complimenting Concurrent Efforts • Regional Evacuation Studies • Behavioral Studies • Vulnerability Assessment • Statewide Sheltering Plans • County Annexes • Comprehensive Emergency Management Plans • Herbert Hoover Dike Annexes • Catastrophic Plan Annexes • Regional Annexes • HHD Annex • Catastrophic Annex

11. Scenario-Driven Planning Workshops

12. Scenario-Driven Planning • The scenario sets the “catastrophic bar,” helping to establish the necessary capacity of the resulting plans. • Participants at all levels of government contribute to the planning solutions, and the operational knowledge and experience captured make the resulting plans more viable.

13. Scenario-Driven Planning • Utilizes a realistic and comprehensive set of consequences for ALL stakeholders • Response and recovery actions will be based on the same planning assumptions & projected consequences • Allows ALL stakeholders to assess their existing and future plans in context of each other • Facilitates updates to and development of plans that address functional areas

14. Category 5 Hurricane Ono Nearing the Bahamas

16. Planning Scenario – Path of Hurricane Ono

17. Extended Track • How does this affect in-state mutual aid/resources? • How does this affect out-of-state assistance?

18. Planning Scenario –Herbert Hoover Dike Breaches

19. Herbert Hoover Dike & S80 Consequences From Breaches and Structure Failure ONLY • In Reach 1 (Palm Beach County), the residences of approximately 4,700 households are flooded to a depth of five to thirteen feet. • In Reach 2 (Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach County), the homes of approximately 4,800 households are within the area that would be covered by one to six feet of water.

20. Consequence Projections Percent of Building Stock by Wind Damage Category

21. Consequence Projections Number of Buildings by Wind Damage Category

22. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls

23. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls • Assess required capabilities based on Catastrophic Scenario • What do we need to do? • Develop scalable and adaptable methods, formulas, or matrices that indicate the quantity and type of assets needed to meet the capability • What do we need to do it?

24. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls • Determine available resources within local, regional or States inventories, including pre-disaster contracts • What do we already have? • Establish protocols & policies that clearly articulate how to meet both required capabilities and fill gapsand identify resource limitations • How are we going to get our hands on what we have, and how will we get more?

25. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls • Integrate with other scenario-based resource planning schemes across disciplines • What does this mean for the rest of the response and recovery activities? • Sustain the planning process to facilitate updates and changes

26. The Word Problem • SF impacted by a Category 5 Hurricane making landfall 35mi N of Miami producing upwards of 22” of rainfall in and north of Lake Okeechobee. Winds and surge damage or destroy nearly 700,000 structures. Note: this doesn’t include the Counties to the North West of Lake Okeechobee where the storm exits FL as a Category 2. • Winds from the storm leave large amounts of debris in canals used by SFWMD to control water movement in South Florida making it difficult to impossible to reduce flood waters impacting the environment, economy, citizens and visitors. Flood waters are expected to remain for as many as 22 days – or more

27. Key Assumptions • Estimated Population – 6,358,934 • 2,867,295 people are projected to evacuate in advance of the storm • 796,214 people are expected to seek public shelter (10’s of miles) • 3,826,822 homes will be destroyed • Up to 3,000,000 customers will be w/o power from Miami-Dade to Indian River on the East and Manatee/Sarasota on the West

28. Pick ONE – Break It Down • Pick ONE decision point and break it down • Clearly identify the GOAL • Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information needed on which to base a decision • Document what you know from past experience • Calculate/Adjust/Recalculate/Cross Check • Repeat as necessary Up Next - Rand Napoli, Lead Planner

29. Pick ONE – Break It Down • Pick ONE decision point and break it down • Clearly identify the GOAL • Complete Primary Search & Rescue in 24 Hrs • Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information needed on which to base a decision • # Strike Teams • # of hours/day – operational period • # of structures damaged or destroyed

30. Pick ONE – Break It Down • Document what you know from past experience • Can’t safely search at night • How many workers to safely search a structure • How much time to safely search a structure • Deployment time – (notification to operational) • Calculate/Adjust/Recalculate/Cross Check • Repeat as necessary • Don’t forget LOGISTICAL support for your staff, mutual aid assets, volunteers

31. Example – Search and Rescue

32. Example – Search and Rescue

33. Pick ONE – Break It Down • Pick ONE decision point and break it down • Clearly identify the GOAL • Provide 3 Hot Meals/day for survivors in impacted area • Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information needed on which to base a decision • How many survivors remained in the area • Approximately 4.3 Million • Quantity of food/meal • How many staff required to prepare/deliver

34. Pick ONE – Break It Down • Document what you know from past experience • Operational Period • Deployment time – (notification to operational) • Staff required to prepare X number meals • Adjust/Recalculate/Cross Check/ - Repeat • Don’t forget LOGISTICAL support for your staff, mutual aid assets, volunteers

35. Meal count estimation formula • How to estimate meal counts for the first 14 days • Category 1 – Population X 15% • Category 2 – Population X 33% • Category 3 – Population X 90% • Category 4 – Population X 350% • For estimates past 14 days use actual reported meals counts for Day 1 through Day 7

36. # Meals = # resources required

37. Contacts & Information • www.FloridaDisaster.org/CatastrophicPlanning • Carla Boyce, Plans Chief • 850.410.1268 • Carla.Boyce@em.MyFlorida.com • Rand Napoli, Lead Planner – IEM • 904.370.0839 • Rand.Napoli@IEM.com

38. Between Workshops – Homework Reach Out (Bring One) Get involved!