1 / 74

Predicting The Future The Shape of the Next Generation

How Has Technology Changed our Lives in 1990s. Tremendous wealth creation in the 1990sWealthiest had something to do with technologyMajor innovation and rapid advancementsImprovements in productivity . Worst Technology Predictions. YouTube will go nowhere "There's just not that many videos I want

thais
Download Presentation

Predicting The Future The Shape of the Next Generation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

    1. Predicting The Future The Shape of the Next Generation How has technology affected the financial markets? How has technology affected the labor markets? How has technology changed the world?

    2. How Has Technology Changed our Lives in 1990s Tremendous wealth creation in the 1990s Wealthiest had something to do with technology Major innovation and rapid advancements Improvements in productivity

    3. Worst Technology Predictions YouTube will go nowhere "There's just not that many videos I want to watch," lamented Steve Chen, a co-founder of YouTube, in March 2005. At the time YouTube featured about 50 videos. Less than two years later, on November 13 2006, Google acquired YouTube for US$1.65 billion in Google stock.

    4. Worst Technology Predictions The Millennium Bug This is not attributed to anyone in particular, but rather anyone and everyone with a propensity to fear the worst. Yes, you -- you that began stocking canned food and rifle ammunition in your basement right before New Year's Eve 1999. While some considerable funds were spent to protect against any problems, and around the world a few minor faults were reported, it certainly wasn't the end of human civilization as some had feared.

    5. Worst Technology Predictions The death of the iPod Over the years, many have predicted the iPod would be a fad: most famously Amstrad founder, Sir Alan Sugar, who said in February 2005 that by "next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput". Of course today the iPod continues to power along, with Apple claiming to have sold over 100 million units.

    6. Apple Stock – Last 5 Years

    7. Apple – Price History

    8. Worst Technology Predictions Photocopiers are niche "The world potential market for copying machines is 5,000 at most," IBM told the eventual founders of Xerox in 1959. According to Wikipedia, by 1961 Xerox had almost US$60 million in revenue, and this value had leapt to US$500 million by 1965.

    9. Worst Technology Predictions The PC was never meant for home use Many people made this prediction, but most notably Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM said in 1943: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers".

    10. Worst Technology Predictions eBay will be huge in China "We are on a tear to be the undisputed winner in China," said eBay CEO Meg Whitman on 10 February, 2005. By December 2006, eBay said it would close its operation in China and become instead the junior partner to Tom Online, a Chinese Internet portal and wireless firm.

    11. Worst Technology Predictions Nobody will ever need more than 640KB of memory "No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody," Bill Gates is alleged to have said in 1981.

    12. Worst Technology Predictions Windows will never be a 32-bit OS "We will never make a 32-bit operating system," Bill Gates said at the launch of MSX in 1983. Every version of Windows from then on progressively got bigger peaking currently with Vista's 64-bit operating system.

    13. Worst Technology Predictions There is no need for any individual to have a computer in their home.” [Ken Olson, President of Digital Equipment Corp, in 1977]

    14. Worst Technology Predictions “Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.” [The Boston Post in 1865]

    15. Worst Technology Predictions “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” [Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949]

    16. Worst Technology Predictions Theoretically, television may be feasible, but I consider it an impossibility–a development which we should waste little time dreaming about. - Lee de Forest, 1926, inventor of the cathode ray tube

    17. Worst Technology Predictions It doesn’t matter what he does, he will never amount to anything. - Albert Einstein’s teacher to his father, 1895

    18. Worst Technology Predictions This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us. - Western Union internal memo, 1876

    19. Worst Technology Predictions We don’t need you. You haven’t got through college yet. - Hewlett-Packard’s rejection of Steve Jobs, who went on to found Apple Computers

    20. Worst Technology Predictions In 1939 The New York Times said the problem of TV was that people had to glue their eyes to a screen, and that the average American wouldn’t have time for it.

    21. Worst Technology Predictions Airplanes are interesting toys, but they have no military value. - Marshal Ferdinand Foch in 1911

    22. Worst Technology Predictions An official of the White Star Line, speaking of the firm’s newly built flagship, the Titanic, launched in 1912, declared that the ship was unsinkable.

    23. Worst Technology Predictions With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market. - Business Week, 1958

    24. Worst Technology Predictions

    25. MSFT – Returns History

    26. Worst Technology Predictions AMZN is a stock that continues to live on borrowed time.” Caris & Co. analyst in a report about the stock of Amazon.com on Oct. 26, 2006 when the stock traded at $38.50. on Dec. 17, 2007 Amazon shares were trading at $85.09.

    27. AMZN – Last 5 Years

    28. Worst Technology Predictions Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, October 16, 1929.

    29. Long Term Perspective Investors should use a long term planning horizon A 10 year horizon reduces risk to almost non-existent

More Related