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FuturoVenezuela

Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA. www.FuturoVenezuela.org. Presentation about National SOFI’s Millennium Project, Venezuela Node José Luis Cordeiro Washington, July 30, 2004. Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA. www.FuturoVenezuela.org. The future is no longer what it used to be.

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FuturoVenezuela

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  1. Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA www.FuturoVenezuela.org Presentation about National SOFI’s Millennium Project, Venezuela Node José Luis Cordeiro Washington, July 30, 2004

  2. Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA www.FuturoVenezuela.org • The future is no longer what it used to be. Mafalda

  3. Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA www.FuturoVenezuela.org Design of National SOFI’s • What variables should be included in a national SOFI? • How can very different variables be combined? • How can the variables be forecast? • How can the variables be weighted? • How can double accounting be avoided?

  4. Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA www.FuturoVenezuela.org Procedure for National SOFI’s • SOFI selection of variables • SOFI data collection • Forecasting the data (TIA) • Analysis • National SOFI report

  5. Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA www.FuturoVenezuela.org Variables in the 2003 SOFI • 1. Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) • . Food availability (calories per capita in low–income countries) • . GDP per capita, PPP (constant 1995 dollars) • . Share of households with access to safe water (15 most populated countries) • . Mean monthly carbon dioxide in atmosphere (ppm) • . Annual population addition (million) • . Percent unemployed (world) • . Literacy rate, adult total (in low- and middle-income countries) • . Annual AIDS deaths (million) • 0. Life expectancy (world) • 1. Number of armed conflicts (those with at least 1,000 deaths per year) • 2. Developing-country debt • 3. Forestlands (million hectares) • 4. People living on less than $2 per day (billion, without China) • 5. Terrorist attacks (number of people killed or wounded) • 6. Violent crime (per 100,000 population, in 17 countries) • 7. Share of population living in countries that are not free • 8. Secondary school enrollment (% of school age) • 9. Share of population with access to health care (15 most populated countries) • 0. Number of countries having or thought to have nuclear capacity

  6. Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA www.FuturoVenezuela.org Missing data for National SOFI’s

  7. Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA www.FuturoVenezuela.org National SOFI’s (in the Americas) USA Chile Venezuela Canada Brazil Argentina Mexico Colombia Ecuador Peru

  8. Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA www.FuturoVenezuela.org National SOFI’s (base 2002 = 1)

  9. Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA www.FuturoVenezuela.org Next Steps for National SOFI’s • Review methodology • Define variables and weights • Improve data collection • Expande country set • Cross regional comparisons • Historical comparisons of forecasts • Base case analysis and other scenarios • Comparison with other indexes

  10. Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA www.FuturoVenezuela.org www.FuturoVenezuela.org ¡Muchas gracias!

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