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Daniel Felsenstein Shlomie Hazam Funded by the German-Israel Fund GIF

Descriptive: Terror Patterns G.I.S. depiction of Terror Incidence Identification of Terror Hot Spots and IntensityAnalytic: Modeling Impact of Terror Effect of Terror on House Prices and Rents Spatial Spillover Effects. Objectives. Theory. Terror Generates (1) Risk (2) Fear. [Becker and Ru

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Daniel Felsenstein Shlomie Hazam Funded by the German-Israel Fund GIF

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    1. Daniel Felsenstein Shlomie Hazam Funded by the German-Israel Fund (GIF)

    2. Descriptive: Terror Patterns G.I.S. depiction of Terror Incidence Identification of Terror Hot Spots and Intensity Analytic: Modeling Impact of Terror Effect of Terror on House Prices and Rents Spatial Spillover Effects Objectives

    3. Theory Terror Generates (1) Risk (2) Fear. [Becker and Rubinstein 2003]. Risk(ß) = probabilities very small - BUT small probabilities events can have great impact. (SARS mad – cow disease) DUE TO: Fear(?) = subjective, different threshold, accommodation levels. Y1t = a+ß+?+µ1t Y2t = a+ß+µ2t t=1….T

    5. Model

    6. Model Estimation (levels) Pi1 = a1+ß1X1+µi1 | [µi1 = Vi + ei1] (levels) Pi2 = a2+ß2X2+µi2 | [µi2 = Vi + ei2] (differences) ?P = a2 - a1 + ß2X2 - ß1X1+ ? µ

    7. Terror Incident Data – Police Diaries House Prices and Rents – Levi Yitzhak Guide Terror Monetary Damage Data – Property Tax Bureau G.I.S. Data Assignment Data

    9. Total Terror Casualties by Years and Type of Attack

    10. Data Standardization (Size and Money Values) Price Assignment to G.I.S. street/Buildings cover. Spatial Geographic Weighted Means Delta– House Prices + Rentals 1999-2004 G.I.S. Method

    16. Descriptive Patterns of Terror Spatial Distribution of Changes in House + Rental Prices Factors Affecting House + Rental Prices Findings

    22. where is the value of i point, is the weight for point i and j for distance d

    24. Surface Interpolating Kriging Interpolation Method Statistic areas Distributions Spatial Descriptive of Changes in House Prices

    32. South West View

    42. Conclusions Terror intensity – increases over time Terror patterns – increasingly random House + rental prices – largest declines in peripheral neighborhoods and adjacent to seam line

    43. Differences between purchasing + rental behavior. Terror is significant in rental decisions, less so in purchasing. Explanation: if fear is main component of terror ( and not risk), more likely to be expressed in short term behavior (rental) than in long term (purchasing).

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