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Opportunities in Global Emerging Markets Charlemagne Capital

Opportunities in Global Emerging Markets Charlemagne Capital. Julian Mayo, Director of Investments February 24, 2005. Global Emerging Markets Fund. Inception Date: February 24, 2005

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Opportunities in Global Emerging Markets Charlemagne Capital

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  1. Opportunities in Global Emerging Markets Charlemagne Capital Julian Mayo, Director of Investments February 24, 2005

  2. Global Emerging Markets Fund • Inception Date: February 24, 2005 • Investment Objective: The fund seeks long-term growth of capital by investing in global emerging markets. • General Account: $5,000 minimum • IRA Account: No Minimum • Business Account: $5,000 minimum • Trust Account: $5,000 minimum • UGMA/UTMA: $1,000 minimum • ABC Investment Plan: $1,000 minimum w/$100 minimum per month • Expense Ratio: Capped at 2.0%

  3. The Subadviser Charlemagne Capital

  4. The Subadviser: Charlemagne Capital • Independent emerging markets investment management group • Entrepreneurial, with significant institutional backing • Funds under management approx. $2.0 billion* • Strong debt-free balance sheet • Subadviser to US Global Investors Accolade Eastern Europe Fund (ticker: EUROX) – “12-month winner”, Wall Street Journal Best Performing Mutual Fund, as well as the US Global Investors Global Emerging Markets Fund *as at 31 Dec 2004

  5. US$ The Subadviser : Charlemagne Capital Assets under management US$ m Dynamic growth: all in emerging markets Source: Charlemagne Capital

  6. Charlemagne Capital Institutional mandates $ 1019m Private equity $ 217m Hedge funds $ 154m Long only funds $ 626m Segregated accounts OCCO range Magna range / Offshore funds Private equity portfolios The Subadviser : Charlemagne Capital Diversified institutional client base

  7. The Subadviser : Charlemagne Capital Investment team • High quality, dedicated professionals • Significant emerging market experience • Alignment of interest with investors • Blue chip, institutional backgrounds • Strong internal performance driven culture

  8. Investment Process Exploit inefficiencies in emerging markets via a disciplined bottom-up process focused, low risk portfolios consistent returns low volatility + = The goal

  9. Investing in Emerging Markets • The Investment Process: How we invest in emerging markets • The Investment Case: Global emerging markets Did you know: Over 80% of people in the world live in emerging markets! Only 10% of Indians have even seen a telephone!

  10. Investment Process

  11. OCCO Eastern European Fund Investment Process Clear Ownership Structure - Cover (4 Eyes Principle) Julian Mayo Manager Asia 20 years experience Stefan Böttcher Lead Manager 17 years experience Andrew Wiles Manager EMEA 10 years experience Stefan Herz Head of Research EMEA / Latam 13 years experience Yvonne Yeoh Manager Asia 10 years experience Samir Patel Manager Latam 9 years experience James Hanson Risk Manager 11 years experience

  12. Emerging Markets Universe • Listed companies • 80% of market cap • Best opportunities • Special situation Charlemagne Capital Universe • Detailed analysis • Quarterly management meetings • Propriety database Focus Stock List • Risk management Macro Overlay • Low volatility • High tracking error Portfolio Investment Process Structured, consistent process

  13. Investment Process: Qualitative Checklist Checklist What it means Focus stock list Disciplined bottom-up research

  14. Investment Process: Company Research Focus stock list: Detailed corporate database Valuation analysis Rigorous stock analysis

  15. Investment Process: Valuation Analysis Price target Price-driven valuation analysis

  16. Investment Process Risk: Significant valuation shift Avoid Macroeconomic risk overlay

  17. Private Equity Local Offices Corporate Events Local Contacts Special situations qualitative screening by fund managers Company visit by fund manager Risk adjusted return target Portfolio (Max. 25% of NAV) Investment Process: Special Situations Delivering alpha

  18. Investment Process - Portfolio Construction • Country, sector and cash limits determined by a maximum tracking error of 15% • Special situations + illiquid stocks maximum 25% of NAV • Stock positions: • Core: 3% • Max: 9% • Min: 1% • Large positions: indication of conviction Focused, concentrated portfolios managed within risk limits

  19. Investment Process Risk management • Administrative risk • Markets must meet criteria such as security of ownership, currency convertibility, custody, taxation, liquidity • Market risk • ‘Four-eyes’ principle – each decision is seconded • Constant price screening by dedicated dealer • Weekly stock/sector review meetings • Monthly macroeconomic reviews • Quarterly company visits • Portfolio risk • Informed management of risk

  20. Investment Process Sell discipline • Sell triggers: • Price change • Change of fundamental assessment • Superior alternative investment opportunity • Instant implementation

  21. Investment Process: Best Team Ideas The strategy: example OTP Hungary Gross Loans/ GDP 2002 • OTP: well placed for convergence • Banking sector penetration will increase towards EU levels as interest rates decline • OTP is the market leader in all products • Expect a further $2bn in mortgage loans to be added over the next couple of years OTP: Market Share (2003) Source: Charlemagne Capital / Brunswick UBS Warburg / Merrill Lynch OTP / IMF

  22. Investment Process: Best Team Ideas The strategy: example Dongkuk Steel • Korean steel mill, dominant domestic steel plate producer • Strong core product demand from shipbuilding and construction • Management addressing corporate governance discount • Stock trading at 3x2004 earnings, 5% dividend yield Korean Shipbuilding Backlog 18 16 3 ½ yrs backlog 14 12 10 m tonnes 8 6 4 2 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: Charlemagne Capital

  23. Investment Process: Best Team Ideas The strategy: example URBI • Leading Mexican home builder • Large and growing housing deficit in Mexico • Management enhancing margins through better working capital and better revenue mix • Strong cash flow generation due to low capex • Valuations justified by its better growth prospects Source: Charlemagne Capital

  24. Investment Process • Summary • Fundamental bottom-up approach • Lean decision making • Disciplined portfolio construction • Rigid sell discipline • Informed risk management

  25. Investment Case Global Emerging Markets • Politics: better economic management • Economics • Valuations

  26. Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets International reserves now exceed external debt Source: UBS

  27. Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets Exchange rates seem undervalued Source: UBS

  28. Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets GEMs vs Developed mkt cap weighted sovereign yields Spreads narrowed but still room to fall Source: UBS

  29. Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets High GDP Growth Source: UBS

  30. Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets Current account + FDI: surpluses across the board Sound fundamentals Source: UBS

  31. Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets GEMs vs global 12 month forward consensus P/Es 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 MSCI EMF 12 month forward P/E MSCI World 12 month forward P/E Cheap relative to world Source: UBS

  32. Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets GEMs: Earnings yield gap Equities more attractive than bonds Source: Charlemagne

  33. Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets GEMs vs Developed P/BV Equities look cheap on price to book Source: UBS

  34. Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets Standard deviation of country vs sector Country and sector volatility falls – stock selection counts! Source: UBS

  35. Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets Stock selection matters – yearly performance 2003 +188% -13% * Top and bottom performance out of largest 25 GEMs stocks by market capitalisation

  36. Investment Case: Global Emerging Markets Source: UBS

  37. Model Portfolio Global Emerging Markets

  38. Model Portfolio Geographic allocation Actively managed portfolios Source: Charlemagne Capital / Bloomberg – 31 Dec 2004

  39. Model Portfolio Geographic allocation Actively managed portfolios Source: Charlemagne Capital / Bloomberg – 31 Dec 2004

  40. Model Portfolio Sector allocation Overweight Financials Actively managed portfolios Source: Charlemagne Capital / MSCI – 31 Dec 04

  41. Model Portfolio Sector allocation Underweight Materials Actively managed portfolios Source: Charlemagne Capital / MSCI – 31 Dec 04

  42. Thank You! For more complete information about the Global Emerging Markets Fund and/or Eastern European Fund (EUROX) or any U.S. Global fund, obtain a prospectus by visiting us at www.usfunds.comor call 1-800-US-FUNDS. Please consider carefully the fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, andread the prospectus carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc. Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. This article should not be considered a recommendation for the securities of any company mentioned. Holdings as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/04: Eastern European Fund: OTP Bank Rt. (8.34%) Although mentioned none of the following companies are held in the Eastern European Fund as of 12/31/04: America Movil, Dongkuk Steel, Kookmin Bank, Petrochina, Petrobras, Posco, Reliance, Sasol, SK Telecom, Telefonos Mexico, URBI and Yukos. The MSCI EM Free Total Net Return Index measures the market performance, including price performance and income from dividend payments.

  43. The Disclaimer This document is issued by Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”). 'Magna Umbrella Fund plc is an open ended investment company authorised by the Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority as a UCITS.  It is recognised by the FSA under section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for marketing to persons in the UK. This document must not be relied on for purposes of any investment decisions. Before investing in any fund(s) recipients who are not professional investors should contact their independent financial adviser and all documents relating to the particular fund(s) such as report and accounts and offering memorandum/prospectus should be read, which specify the particular risks associated with the fund(s), together with any specific restrictions applying and the basis of dealing. The value of any investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of an investment. There are additional risks associated with investments (made directly or through investment vehicles which invest) in emerging or developing markets. The information in this document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or other advice and is not a recommendation or, an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy shares in the fund(s), which may only be made on the basis of the Prospectus/Fund’s Offering Memorandum which can be obtained from the address below. A United Kingdom investor who enters into an Investment Agreement to acquire an interest in the fund will not have the right to cancel the agreement under any cancellation rules made by the FSA. Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited reasonably believes that the information contained herein is accurate as at the date of publication but no warranty or guarantee (express or implied) is given as to accuracy. The information and any opinions expressed herein may change at any time. Issued by Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited - Authorised and Regulated by the FSA. Charlemagne Capital (UK) Limited 39 St. James‘s Street London SW1A 1JD United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0)20 7518 2100 Fax: + 44 (0)20 7518 2198/9 www.charlemagnecapital.com marketing@charlemagnecapital.com

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