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Technology Trends

Technology Trends. Pradondet Nilagupta Fall 2005 (original notes from Randy Katz, & Prof. Jan M. Rabaey , UC Berkeley). Original. Big Fishes Eating Little Fishes. 1988 Computer Food Chain. Mainframe. Work- station. PC. Mini- computer. Mini- supercomputer. Supercomputer.

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Technology Trends

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  1. Technology Trends Pradondet Nilagupta Fall 2005 (original notes from Randy Katz, & Prof. Jan M. Rabaey ,UC Berkeley) 204521 Digital System Architecture

  2. Original Big Fishes Eating Little Fishes 204521 Digital System Architecture

  3. 1988 Computer Food Chain Mainframe Work- station PC Mini- computer Mini- supercomputer Supercomputer Massively Parallel Processors 204521 Digital System Architecture

  4. 1998 Computer Food Chain Mini- supercomputer Mini- computer Massively Parallel Processors Mainframe Work- station PC Server Now who is eating whom? Supercomputer 204521 Digital System Architecture

  5. 1985 Computer Food Chain Technologies ECL TTL MOS Mainframe Work- station PC Mini- computer Mini- supercomputer Supercomputer 204521 Digital System Architecture

  6. Why Such Change in 10 years? (1/2) • Function • Rise of networking/local interconnection technology • Performance • Technology Advances • CMOS VLSI dominates TTL, ECL in cost & performance • Computer architecture advances improves low-end • RISC, Superscalar, RAID, … 204521 Digital System Architecture

  7. Why Such Change in 10 years? (2/2) • Price: Lower costs due to … • Simpler development • CMOS VLSI: smaller systems, fewer components • Higher volumes • CMOS VLSI : same dev. cost 10,000 vs. 10,000,000 units • Lower margins by class of computer, due to fewer services 204521 Digital System Architecture

  8. Moore’s Law Technology Trends: Microprocessor Capacity “Graduation Window” Alpha 21264: 15 million Pentium Pro: 5.5 million PowerPC 620: 6.9 million Alpha 21164: 9.3 million Sparc Ultra: 5.2 million • CMOS improvements: • Die size: 2X every 3 yrs • Line width: halve / 7 yrs 204521 Digital System Architecture

  9. Memory Capacity (Single Chip DRAM) year size(Mb) cyc time 1980 0.0625 250 ns 1983 0.25 220 ns 1986 1 190 ns 1989 4 165 ns 1992 16 145 ns 1996 64 120 ns 2000 256 100 ns 204521 Digital System Architecture

  10. CMOS Improvements • Die size 2X every 3 yrs • Line widths halve every 7 yrs 25 Die size increase plus transistor count increase 20 15 Transistor Count 10 5 Line Width Improvement Die Size 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 204521 Digital System Architecture

  11. Bytes 4K chips 8G 512 chips 1G 128M 64 chips workstation 8 chips-PC 8M 1M 640K DOS 128K limit 1/8 chip 1 chip Time 8K 1980 1990 2000 1970 1Kbit 4K 16K 64K 256K 1M 4M 16M 64M 256M Memory Size of Various Systems Over Time 204521 Digital System Architecture

  12. Technology Trends (Summary) Capacity Speed (latency) Logic 2x in 3 years 2x in 3 years DRAM 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years Disk 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years 204521 Digital System Architecture

  13. Processor Frequency Trend • Frequency doubles each generation • Number of gates/clock reduce by 25% 204521 Digital System Architecture

  14. 1000 Supercomputers 100 Mainframes 10 Minicomputers Microprocessors 1 0.1 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Processor Performance Trends 204521 Digital System Architecture

  15. 100 4K Mips RISC 60% / yr. (65 MHz) Mips o 25 MHz 10 9000 uVAX 6K ECL 15%/yr. (CMOS) Performance (VAX 780s) o | 8600 | MIPS (8 MHz) TTL MV10K 1.0 CMOS CISC 780 uVAX 5 MHz Will RISC continue on a CMOS 38%/yr. 68K 60%, (x4 / 3 years)? 0.1 1990 1985 1980 Performance vs. Time 204521 Digital System Architecture

  16. 1.54X/yr Processor Performance(1.35X before, 1.55X now) 204521 Digital System Architecture

  17. Summary: Performance Trends • Workstation performance (measured in Spec Marks) improves roughly 50% per year (2X every 18 months) • Improvement in cost performance estimated at 70% per year 204521 Digital System Architecture

  18. Processor Perspective • Putting performance growth in perspective: IBM POWER2 Cray YMP Workstation Supercomputer Year 1993 1988 MIPS > 200 MIPS < 50 MIPS Linpack 140 MFLOPS160 MFLOPS Cost $120,000 $1M ($1.6M in 1994$) Clock 71.5 MHz 167 MHz Cache 256 KB 0.25 KB Memory 512 MB 256 MB • 1988 supercomputer in 1993 server! 204521 Digital System Architecture

  19. Where Has This Performance Improvement Come From? • Technology? • Organization? • Instruction Set Architecture? • Software? • Some combination of all of the above? 204521 Digital System Architecture

  20. Performance Trends Revisited(Architectural Innovation) 1000 Supercomputers 100 Mainframes 10 Minicomputers Microprocessors 1 CISC/RISC 0.1 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year 204521 Digital System Architecture

  21. Performance Trends Revisited (Microprocessor Organization) • Bit Level Parallelism • Pipelining • Caches • Instruction Level Parallelism • Out-of-order Xeq • Speculation • . . . 204521 Digital System Architecture

  22. What is Ahead? • Greater instruction level parallelism? • Bigger caches? • Multiple processors per chip? • Complete systems on a chip? (Portable Systems) • High performance LAN, Interface, and Interconnect 204521 Digital System Architecture

  23. Hardware Technology 198019902000 Memory chips 64 K 4 M 256 M-1 G Speed 1-2 20-40 400-1000 5-1/4 in. disks 40 M 1 G 20 G Floppies .256 M 1.5 M 500-2,000 M LAN (Switch) 2-10 Mbits 10 (100) 155-655 (ATM) Busses 2-20 Mbytes 40-400 204521 Digital System Architecture

  24. Software Technology 198019902000 Languages C, FORTRAN C++, HPF object stuff?? Op. System proprietary +DUM* +DUM+NT User I/F glass Teletype WIMP* stylus, voice, audio,video, ?? Comp. Styles T/S, PC Client/Server agents*mobile New things PC & WS parallel proc. appliances Capabilities WP, SS WP,SS, mail video, ?? DUM = DOS, n-UNIX's, MAC WIMP = Windows, Icons, Mouse, Pull-down menus Agents = robots that work on information 204521 Digital System Architecture

  25. Computer Technology Trends:Evolutionary but Rapid Change • Processor: • 1.5-1.6 performance improvement every year; Over 100X performance in last decade. • Memory: • DRAM capacity: > 2x every 1.5 years; 1000X size in last decade. • Cost per bit: Improves about 25% per year. • Disk: • Capacity: > 2X in size every 1.5 years. • Cost per bit: Improves about 60% per year. • 200X size in last decade. • Only 10% performance improvement per year, due to mechanical limitations. • Expected State-of-the-art PC by end of year 2005 : • Processor clock speed: > 4000 MegaHertz (4 Giga Hertz) • Memory capacity: > 4000 MegaByte (4 Giga Bytes) • Disk capacity: > 500 GigaBytes (0.5 Tera Bytes) 204521 Digital System Architecture

  26. Recent Architectural Improvements • Increased optimization and utilization of cache systems. • Memory-latency hiding techniques. • Optimization of pipelined instruction execution. • Dynamic hardware-based pipeline scheduling. • Improved handling of pipeline hazards. • Improved hardware branch prediction techniques. • Exploiting Instruction-Level Parallelism (ILP) in terms of multiple-instruction issue and multiple hardware functional units. • Inclusion of special instructions to handle multimedia applications (limited vector processing). • High-speed bus designs to improve data transfer rates. 204521 Digital System Architecture

  27. Applications: Unlimited Opportunities (1/2) • Office agents: phone/FAX/comm; files/paper handling • Untethered computing: fully distributed offices ?? • Integration of video, communication, and computing: desktop video publishing, conferencing, & mail • Large, commercial transaction processing systems • Encapsulate knowledge in a computer: scientific & engineering simulation (e.g.. planetarium, wind tunnel, ... ) 204521 Digital System Architecture

  28. Applications: Unlimited Opportunities (2/2) • Visualization & virtual reality • Computational chemistry e.g. biochemistry and materials • Mechanical engineering without prototypes • Image/signal processing: medicine, maps, surveillance. • Personal computers in 2001 are today's supercomputers • Integration of the PC & TV => TC 204521 Digital System Architecture

  29. Challenges for 1990s Platforms (1/2) • 64-bit computers • video, voice, communication, any really new apps? • Increasingly large, complex systems and environments Usability? • Plethora of non-portable, distributed, incompatible, non-interoperable computers: Usability? • Scalable parallel computers can provide “commodity supercomputing”: Markets and trained users? 204521 Digital System Architecture

  30. Challenges for 1990s Platforms (2/2) • Apps to fuel and support a chubby industry: communications, paper/office, and digital video • The true portable, wireless communication computer • Truly personal card, pencil, pocket, wallet computer • Networks continue to limit: WAN, ISDN, and ATM? 204521 Digital System Architecture

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