STS Technical Committee Report STS Operations Committee August 17, 2011 Salt Fork State Park, OH

1. STS Technical Committee Report STS Operations Committee August 17, 2011 Salt Fork State Park, OH

2. (1) Mating disruption field trials – update (2) Replacement of Btk blocks with high rate MD? (3) Lure experiment – final results (4) Autotraps and sentinel traps – update (5) MN –moth wing measurements – update (6) Gypsy moth dispersal – update (7) Mating success, climate, and reproductive asynchrony – update (8) Mating success meta-analysis (9) VA Coastal Plain analysis – update (10) Tech Development Plan, FY11

3. Gypsy Moth Mating DisruptionResearch Program Update Ksenia Onufrieva August 2011

4. Experiments, 2011 • Second-year effect of Disrupt® II and SPLAT GM in Wisconsin • Control • Hercon Disrupt® II 6 g AI/acre • SPLAT® GM 6 g AI/acre • SPLAT® GM Organic 6 g AI/acre

5. Experiments, 2011 • Mating Disruption Test • Control • SPLAT® GM 4 g AI/acre • SPLAT® GM Organic 4 g AI/acre

6. Experiments, 2011 Efficacy of SPLAT® GM for ground application Control SPLAT® GM 20 g AI/acre 9 point sources SPLAT® GM 20 g AI/acre 25 point sources SPLAT® GM 20 g AI/acre 49 point sources

7. Plot Layout(second-year effect and mating disruption tests) - Pheromone trap - Male moth release point

8. Plot Layout(SPLAT® GM for ground application) - SPLAT® GM Point source - Pheromone trap - Male moth release point 3x3 grid 5x5 grid 7x7 grid

9. Male Moth Catches In Pheromone-Baited Traps(In-season Mating Disruption Tests) Virginia, 2010 Wisconsin, 2010

10. Male Moth Catches In Pheromone-Baited Traps(second-year effect test, VA)

11. Male Moth Catches In Pheromone-Baited Traps(second-year effect test, WI – preliminary results)

12. Trap catch reduction in plots treated 1 year prior to evaluation in VA and WI

13. Future Work Evaluate second-year effect of SPLAT GM applied at 4 g AI/acre in VA Evaluate the efficacy of SPLAT GM for ground application - dosage response test

14. Replacement of Btk blocks with high rate MD? Reduce treatment costs Possible use on sensitive lands How would this impact the spread rate, comparison of costs, and would we end up treating again sooner than later?

15. Lure Experiment – Final Results Big (!!!) thanks to: Matthew Andresen and James Graham (North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Raleigh, NC), Laura Blackburn (USDA Forest Service, Morgantown, WV), Kimberly Thielen Cremers (Stearns County Soil and Water Conservation District, Cold Spring, MN), Carl Harper (University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY), Bob Kangas (Minnesota Department of Agriculture, Schroeder, MN), Katie Kittrell (Princeton Research and Education Center, Princeton, KY), Chris Lettau (Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, Madison, WI), J.D. Loan (University of Kentucky, Greenup, KY), Dana Miller and Stephen Krecik (Indiana Department of Natural Resources, Vallonia, IN), Alexey V. Onufriev (Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA), Michael Saunders (Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA), Amy Stone (Ohio State University, Toledo, OH), Herbie Ward (North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Elizabethtown, North Carolina), Nancy Williams (Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Bureau Junction, IL), and James Wilson (Mason, WI).

18. 900 600 300 0 Release rate of disparlure across all study locations and years. Subset of the above showing the data from one of the warmest (Raleigh, NC) and the coldest location (Schroeder, MN) Lure residue (mg) 900 600 300 0 Accumulated Degree Days 0 500 1,000 1,500

19. Lure residue over degree days, 2008-2010 900 600 300 0 Lure residue (mg) 0 500 1,000 1,500 Accumulated Degree Days Overall average initial load = 525.6 mg Overall average half-life = 144.4 days Overall average release rate = 2.1 mg per day (Beroza et al. 1971: 1 virgin female ≈ 1-6 mg of disparlure)

21. 2011 Autotraps and Sentinel Traps 1 trap with 1 lure 1 trap with 2 lures

22. MN wing moth measurements 2007-2009

23. 2008; 2,159 moths Mean length=19.37 mm (14.99-23.99) 2007; 1,333 moths Mean length=19.85 mm (15.66-23.74) Number of moths 2009; 3,946 moths Mean length= 20.83 mm (15.41-25.44) Wing length (mm)

24. Flight period (days) of male moths based on ‘live’ moth reports (1st to last live moth) 84 1,687 moths; July 16-Oct. 8 2009

25. Interpretation of Gypsy Moth SPREAD Using Meteorology in a Conditional Algorithm K.L. Frank1, P.C. Tobin2, H.W. Thistle, Jr.3, L.S. Kalkstein4  1Center for Climatic Research, Department of Geography, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 2USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Morgantown, WV 3USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team, Morgantown, WV 26505, USA. 4Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL

27. (A) (B) 60 40 20 0 % of total moths trapped Predicted flight duration 30 20 10 0 Number of traps Predicted flight 7 21 35 49 63 77 91 28 30 32 34 36 Week of the year Flight duration (days) (A) Percent of male moths trapped over time in four counties in eastern Wisconsin, 1993, with only a minority of males trapped during the predicted flight period based upon local climatic conditions (modified from Krause et al. 1994). (B) Frequency distribution of the number of traps in Wisconsin, 2004-2008, by the duration of male moth flight, which is predicted to occur over 14-28 days (modified from Tobin et al. 2009)

28. Development of the Conditional Algorithm Step 1: Identification of “east-wind” events Wind direction at the weather station nearest to a potential gypsy moth source population (in Michigan) was within ±22.5 of the straight-line direction from the receiving weather station (in Wisconsin) Step 2: Calculation of particle travel distance Distance that a particle would travel each hour based upon the wind speed observed at the weather station nearest the source or receiving end. The event “ends” when the total distance traveled reaches the distance from the source to the target or if an elimination criterion is met. Step 3: Elimination of unsuccessful transport events Any precipitation, changes in wind direction (see step 1), and wind speed (i.e., if speed dropped below 2 m/s for 2 hours for larval transport, which was based upon larval settling velocity; McManus and Mason 1983), were used to eliminate events deemed unsuccessful Step 4: Weighting of transport events based upon source population phenology (using Gray’s model in BioSIM).

30. Examined weather data from 1996-2007 A total of 585 individual hourly transport events were identified. Approximately 2/3 occurred during a period coinciding with early instars. Duration of the events ranged from 41 to 4 hours, with a mode of 8 hours. Events occurring during the larval period tended to be of shorter duration due to higher wind speeds. The overall time required to transport larvae was generally shorter for larval transport events (average 11.8 hours for early instars and 18.8 hours for adults)

31. Data processing Grouping the hourly transport events by date of occurrence and removing the biologically unsuccessful transport events left 52 favorable transport periods. Of these 52 events, 31 were associated with cyclones (low pressure systems) in or near the study area, with 22 of them occurring during the period of early instars. Many of these were considered to be of a high weight (i.e., overlapped more with peak hatch or adult emergence). There was a significant positive correlation between the weight of the event and spread

32. 20 15 10 5 0 120 90 60 30 0 -30 -60 Northern WI Central WI Rate of Spread (km yr-1) Model Weights 20 15 10 5 0 120 90 60 30 0 -30 -60 Southern WI All WI 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year Annual gypsy moth spread rates (grey bars) relative to the corresponding model weights of favorable transport events for larval (dotted line), adult (dashed line), both life stages combined (solid line), 1996–2007. Note the correspondence between high rates of spread and model weights for 1997 and 2007, and low rates of spread and model weights for 2004-2006.

33. Spread in current year Spread in following year Sum of model weights 20 15 10 5 0 r=0.58, P=0.05 r=0.44, P=0.16 Annual rate of gypsy moth spread, km/yr The relationship between the sum of the weights representing “most favorable” larval and adult transport events and the annual rate of gypsy moth spread in Wisconsin. Note that in years with higher weights that there tends to be a higher rate of gypsy moth spread.

34. Mating success, climate, and reproductive asynchrony (current field work) Objectives: (1) To quantify the relationship between overwintering temperatures and the distribution of egg hatch in the subsequent spring. (2) To quantify the consequent relationship between the distribution of egg hatch and variability in male moth emergence. (3) To quantify the consequent mating success of females when deployed across the distribution of male moth flight.

37. Mean # first instars (10 egg masses) Egg hatch, 2011 CRC, Blandy, VA Mt. Morris, PA WVU Forest Calendar Day

38. Period of egg hatch (days) in 2010 and 2011 Hatch period (days): first the last hatch

39. Gypsy moth developmental asynchrony-mating success study design Tethered gypsy moth female (n=16) 200 m (656.17 ft) 200 m (656.17 ft) 20 m (65.62 ft) Milk carton pheromone-baited trap (n=2) 140 m (459.32 ft) 540 m (1,771.65 ft)

40. Goals for 2012 After analyzing 2011 data, we should have a good handle on the relationship between mating success and moth density. Next year, we will measure egg hatch and male moth flight distributions at same sites, and would like to add a site in the Coastal Plain of VA and maybe northern Wisconsin (Chequamegon-Nicolet NF)

41. Mating success meta-analysis Patrick C. Tobin and Ksenia S. Onufrieva Compiling data from studies where gypsy moth mating success (through deployed females) was ascertained relative to trap catch. Currently we have data from studies published between 1974 and 2010 Many studies were those conducted to measure the efficiency of mating disruption products and tactics (i.e., Beroza, Webb, Thorpe, etc.) To date, we have compiled 446 unique plot observations of which 326 are from untreated controls We are looking at mating success relative to daily male moth trap catch, and season-long trap catch.

42. Mating success in treated (closed circles) and untreated (open circles) plots Percent of females mated 50th percentile curve. Overall, half of females get mated when males/trap/day = 4.5 Male moths/trap/day (log10)

43. Mating success in treated (closed circles) and untreated (open circles) plots vs. season-long trap catch Mean % mating Max % mating Season-long trap catch (log10) Mean of 50% mating occurs at roughly a season long trap catch = 316 males

44. VA Coastal Plain analysis Sandy Liebhold, David Gray, and Patrick Tobin “Traditional” moth lines (1, 3, 10, etc.) not useful to estimate spread in the coastal plain because trap catches are so low

45. Used STS data to estimate spread based upon the 0.1 and 0.5 mothlines.

46. Location of the 0.1 mothline in selected years N VA/WV Piedmont Coastal Plain

47. David Gray: exploring weather data Third Instars Developmental Rate 82.4 °F Logan et al. 1991 Temperature (°C)

48. Tech Development Plan, FY12 STS Technical Committee Meeting, Aug. 17-18