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Social Change: The 1975-1989 birth cohort: Evidence from the BHPS

Social Change: The 1975-1989 birth cohort: Evidence from the BHPS. BSA Conference Cardiff 17th April 2009 Susan Murray, University of Stirling. Contextual background . Growing up in the 1990s Changes in the early 21 st century Persistent inequality Intragenerational movement

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Social Change: The 1975-1989 birth cohort: Evidence from the BHPS

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  1. 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff Social Change: The 1975-1989 birth cohort: Evidence from the BHPS BSA Conference Cardiff 17th April 2009 Susan Murray, University of Stirling

  2. Contextual background Growing up in the 1990s Changes in the early 21st century Persistent inequality Intragenerational movement Intergenerational movement 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  3. 21st century transitions • ‘Sociologists of youth are generally in agreement that the background against which young people grew up in the closing decades of the twentieth century was transformed, and is now radically different from earlier decades’(Gayle, Lambert, Murray forthcoming) 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  4. Characteristics of unweighted sample of rising 16s Source: BHPS waves 1-16 rising 16s 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  5. 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  6. Multiple regression models for number of A*-C GCSEs comparing employment status for the Registrar General Social Classification Source: BHPS waves 1-16; subsample of the ‘rising 16s’. 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  7. Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  8. Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year (with confidence intervals) 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  9. Quasi Variance for school year 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  10. Figures for pupils gaining 5+ A*-C GCSE grades Source: BHPS waves 1-16; 95% CI around proportion in brackets Source: http://www.bstubbs.co.uk/5a-c.htm 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  11. Logit 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  12. Process • To move away from the common outcomes of destination and focus on process, direction and the tracks and trajectories of young people early on in their careers. 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  13. Outcome variables • Eligibility for HE/FE • Participation in post-16 education • Early labour market outcomes (first, current, last) • Combination of labour market outcomes and educational attainment • Predicted trajectories 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  14. Back to the future: Youth Panel 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

  15. Rising 16s: five years on (%)

  16. 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff Research funded by the ESRC Many thanks.

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