social change the 1975 1989 birth cohort evidence from the bhps
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Social Change: The 1975-1989 birth cohort: Evidence from the BHPS. BSA Conference Cardiff 17th April 2009 Susan Murray, University of Stirling. Contextual background . Growing up in the 1990s Changes in the early 21 st century Persistent inequality Intragenerational movement

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social change the 1975 1989 birth cohort evidence from the bhps
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Social Change: The 1975-1989 birth cohort: Evidence from the BHPS

BSA Conference Cardiff

17th April 2009

Susan Murray, University of Stirling

contextual background
Contextual background

Growing up in the 1990s

Changes in the early 21st century

Persistent inequality

Intragenerational movement

Intergenerational movement

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

21 st century transitions
21st century transitions
  • ‘Sociologists of youth are generally in agreement that the background against which young people grew up in the closing decades of the twentieth century was transformed, and is now radically different from earlier decades’(Gayle, Lambert, Murray forthcoming)

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

characteristics of unweighted sample of rising 16s
Characteristics of unweighted sample of rising 16s

Source: BHPS waves 1-16 rising 16s

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

slide6

Multiple regression models for number of A*-C GCSEs comparing employment status for the Registrar General Social Classification

Source: BHPS waves 1-16; subsample of the ‘rising 16s’.

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

mean number of a c gcse grades per school leaving year
Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

mean number of a c gcse grades per school leaving year with confidence intervals
Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year (with confidence intervals)

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

quasi variance for school year
Quasi Variance for school year

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

figures for pupils gaining 5 a c gcse grades
Figures for pupils gaining 5+ A*-C GCSE grades

Source: BHPS waves 1-16; 95% CI around proportion in brackets

Source: http://www.bstubbs.co.uk/5a-c.htm

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

logit
Logit

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

process
Process
  • To move away from the common outcomes of destination and focus on process, direction and the tracks and trajectories of young people early on in their careers.

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

outcome variables
Outcome variables
  • Eligibility for HE/FE
  • Participation in post-16 education
  • Early labour market outcomes (first, current, last)
  • Combination of labour market outcomes and educational attainment
  • Predicted trajectories

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

back to the future youth panel
Back to the future: Youth Panel

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

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