slide1
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
UTAH’S CURRENT ECONOMIC OVERVIEW April 2014 Mark Knold Supervising Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 46

UTAH’S CURRENT ECONOMIC OVERVIEW April 2014 Mark Knold Supervising Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 137 Views
  • Uploaded on

UTAH’S CURRENT ECONOMIC OVERVIEW April 2014 Mark Knold Supervising Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services. Recovery. Prosperity. Peak. Trough. Expansion. Contraction. Anatomy of a Business Cycle. Economy. Time. State by State Employment Decline. Peak to Trough Decline.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' UTAH’S CURRENT ECONOMIC OVERVIEW April 2014 Mark Knold Supervising Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services' - telyn


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1

UTAH’S CURRENT ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

April 2014

Mark Knold

Supervising Economist

Utah Department of Workforce Services

slide2

Recovery

Prosperity

Peak

Trough

Expansion

Contraction

Anatomy of a Business Cycle

Economy

Time

slide3

State by State Employment Decline

Peak to Trough Decline

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

slide4

Utah Employment % Change*

1960 – 2013

Employment Change

Average per year: 3.1%

60

70

90

80

00

10

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. Through December 2013. * Based on O-T-Y Not Seasonally Adjusted.

slide5

Recovery

Prosperity

Peak

Trough

Expansion

Contraction

Anatomy of a Business Cycle

Economy

Time

slide6

State by State Employment Recovery

From Recession Trough to Current

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; February 2014 Current Employment Statistics estimates.

slide7

Recovery

Prosperity

Peak

Trough

Expansion

Contraction

Anatomy of a Business Cycle

Economy

Time

slide8

State by State Recession Employment Rebound

From Pre-Recession Peak Employment to Current Employment

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; February 2014 Current Employment Statistics estimates.

slide9

Utah Employment

2000 – 2013

Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; March 2014

slide10

Utah 16+ Population Estimate

Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; January 2013, CPS Population Estimates

slide11

Utah Employment

2000 – 2013

Labor Force Growth

Employment

66,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; March 2014

slide12

Unemployment

U.S. and Utah

slide13

Utah Avg. Wage Growth and Unemployment Rate

1991 - 2013

Inverse Relationship

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

slide14

Utah Labor Force Percent Participation

1990 – 2014

Percent

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics

slide15

Utah LFP and UnRate

2008 – 2014

Un Rate

% LFP

Unemployment rate drops while LFP declines; Implies “discouragement” or missing opportunities

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics

slide16

Labor Force Participation That Left*

2008 – 2014

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics

* Diff between pre-recession level and recession

slide17

Labor Force Participation That Left

2008 – 2014

Unemployment rate drops while “discouragement” or missing opportunities increase

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics

slide18

Utah Employment-to-Population Ratio

1990 – 2014

Percent

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics

slide19

Utah Employment-to-Population Ratio

2008 – 2014

% E-Pop

Un Rate

Unemployment rate decline not driven by employment gains

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics

slide20

Unemployment

U.S. and Utah

slide21

Unemployment Rate

2004 - 2014

Note: Pre-recession variables is holding the labor force participation rate at pre-recession levels.

slide22

Labor Force

2004 – 2014

66,000

92,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics

slide23

Change in Labor Force Participation Rate

2007 – 2011

2007 - 2013

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

slide24

Change in Labor Force Participation

2007 – 2011(blue)

2007 – 2013(gray)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

slide25

Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric Change)

2007 - 2013

Employment loss from pre-recession peak to recession low

Employment gain from recession low to September 2013

Natural Resources

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Prof., and Business

Education and Health

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

Government

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW

slide26

Private Sector Employment in High Wage and Low Wage Industries

2000 - 2013

Employment

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; March 2014

The average wage for all industries is the dividing line between high-wage and low-wage.

slide27

Private Sector Employment % Chg. in High Wage and Low Wage Industries

2000 - 2012

Employment Change

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services; March 2014

The average wage for all industries is the dividing line between high-wage and low-wage.

slide28

Part-Time Employment in Utah

1997 - 2012

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

slide29

Would Rather Have Full-Time Employment in Utah*

1997 - 2012

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *% of part-time who would rather work full-time.

slide30

Women Have A Higher Propensity for Part-Time Employment

1997 - 2012

Utah Data

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

slide31

Would Rather Have Full-Time Employment in Utah*

1997 - 2012

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *% of part-time who would rather work full-time.

slide32

Metro Areas Rebounding Faster Than the Non-Metro Areas

2004 - 2013

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

slide33

Strong Rebound in the Provo Area

2004 - 2013

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

slide34

Utah Employment by Establishment Employment Size

2000 – 2012 Avg.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics

slide35

Various Comments of United States Economic Forecast

U.S. Economic fundamentals continue to improve.

U.S GDP growth of 2.5% - 2.7%.

Unemployment lowering to around 6.5%.

Employment growth of around 1.7%.

Job gains frequently over 200,000 a month.

Mortgage rates climbing toward 5.5%.

Federal government fights less economically disruptive.

FED stimulus of the economy easing (tapering), but not difficult to crank it back up.

slide36

Utah Commercial Real Estate experts are looking for a strong 2014

Sold $1.4 B in industrial investment in 2013. Expect to repeat in 2014.

Office absorption up, vacancies down, rents up, new construction.

Retail added 1M sq. ft. in 2013; looking for continued levels of activity.

Distribution looking for 1.9M new sq. ft. in 2014

slide37

Utah Expectation for 2014

Job growth from 3.5% to 3.8%.

I expect 4.0% to 4.2% in 2015.

I am an optimist.

Base this on improved U.S. performance for 2014 and 2015.

Unemployment will be low, but still masking the underutilization of Utah labor.

Therefore, wage growth could still be below average.

Normally in-migration would be a contributing factor, but could still be weak.

slide38

Utah Employment

2003 – 2014f

Monthly

Employment (000)

Where employment would need to be to keep up with labor force growth (assumes no in-migration).

Two-Year Forecast

Forecast

8.0% Employment Growth Over Next Two Years

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; April 2014 f = forecast

slide39

Utah Employment Growth by Establishment Employment Size

2010 – 2012 Avg.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics

slide40

Utah Employment by Establishment Age

2000 – 2012 Avg.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics

slide41

Utah Employment Growth by Establishment Age

2010 – 2012 Avg.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics

slide42

County by County Recession Employment Rebound

From Pre-Recession Peak Employment to Current Employment

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW employment

slide43

Utah County-Level Hachman Indices

2012

0.4

0.6

1.0

0.8

0.2

Diminishing Diversity

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services

slide45

County by County Recession Employment Rebound

Low

High

High

From Pre-Recession Peak Employment to Current Employment

Low

Low

High

Low

High

High

High

High

High

High

High

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW employment

slide46

Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers

Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers

Worker Vacuum

Worker Vacuum

U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2010

Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2010

Male

Female

Male

Female

Millions

Dominating the Labor Force

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

ad