Protracted peace processes. Comparative learning experiences Kristian Herbolzheimer Conciliation Resources www.c-r.org Manila, July 2009. Roadmap. Protracted conflicts and peace processes Current international trends and challenges Open questions on the Philippines.
Comparative learning experiences
Manila, July 2009
Some 20 armed conflicts/tensions have lasted more than 20 years.
Limited media coverage.
Most cases take place in “democratic” contexts.
Complexity increases with time: new actors, new factors, increased grievances, culture of violence.
South Africa (1994), Mindanao (1996), Sudan (1999), East Timor (2002), Aceh (2006), Northern Ireland (2007) Guatemala (2007), Nepal (2008), El Salvador (2009).
Israel/Palestine, India (Nagaland), Colombia (ELN), Indonesia (Papua), Cyprus, Philippines (MILF), Uganda, India (Assam).
India/Pakistan, Burma, Colombia (FARC), Thailand, Spain, Philippines (NPA), Ethiopia (Ogaden), Angola (Cabinda), Western Sahara, Turkey.
Strong increase in PP
M. Kaldor: “New wars”
Not implemented 10
Neg. Peace 8?
Pos. Peace 2?
PBG is still a new process: learning in progress. Options:
1. Identify patterns in turning / sticking points.
Challenge: how can they be influenced?
2. Reframe: think out of the box.
Negotiations: MOA-AD; CASER?
3. Rethink paradigm: revisit assumptions.
Armed conflict – negotiations – agreements – implementation - peace
From armed conflict to negotiations.
- Core agents of peace are the antagonists in war.
- Legitimacy is based on coercive power.
From negotiations to agreement.
- Negotiations are conducted by small elite around a table.
From agreement to peace.
Peace agreement will address root causes of conflict.
Peace agreement is an opportunity for new social contract.
Change trickles down from the negotiating table.
Desired outcome is democracy and a market economy.
End of violence diverts money from war to peace.
Donors-conference will provide additional resources.
People will enjoy a peace dividend in terms of democratic freedom and economic development.