VOTE BY MAIL

VOTE BY MAIL PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 182 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

First things First: What is Vote by Mail? . Vote by Mail is: 1. A

Download Presentation

VOTE BY MAIL

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


1. VOTE BY MAIL IS THE OREGON STYLE VOTE BY MAIL RIGHT FOR COLORADO?

2. First things First: What is Vote by Mail? Vote by Mail is: 1. A “no-excuse” voting system in which the voter receives a ballot by mail, and returns the ballot by mail or personally delivers it to the recorder. 2. The system may or may not permit “permanent no-excuse” voting by mail. 3. The system may be optional, as it is now in Colorado, or “mandatory” as in the all vote by mail (VBM) model. Today we will be discussing the all vote-by mail model. The term vote by mail (VBM) covers many practices, and is called by different terms. No fault absentee, permanent no-fault absentee, mail-in voting, and others. To define our terms, today we’ll be focusing on all-vbm elections, in the Oregon modelThe term vote by mail (VBM) covers many practices, and is called by different terms. No fault absentee, permanent no-fault absentee, mail-in voting, and others. To define our terms, today we’ll be focusing on all-vbm elections, in the Oregon model

3. Benefits of All VBM Elections Vote by Mail (VBM) systems are popular with voters and election administrators nationwide. 30 states currently permit VBM, and 5 states, including Colorado, provide for permanent VBM status. In the 2008 presidential election, 64% of Colorado citizens cast their ballots by mail. In California, more than 62% voted by mail. Over 80% of Oregonians approve. VBM balloting has been shown to increase accuracy. Started in Western states: Oregon. Washington State (all but Pierce County are VBM), In California county registrars may designate any precinct with less than 250 voters as a VBM precinct. New Jersey passed its “Vote by Mail Act” just last year. ‘s VBM Act passed last year. Federal legislation, Absentee ballot, track, retrieve and Confirm (TRAC) act HR 2510, and Universal Right to Vote by Mail Act., S. 3300, the Vote by Mail Act of 2010 18 million grant to study AVBM. 2 mil to states, 1 mil to smaller jurisdictions.f The five states are CO, NY, NJ, CA and ? Started in Western states: Oregon. Washington State (all but Pierce County are VBM), In California county registrars may designate any precinct with less than 250 voters as a VBM precinct. New Jersey passed its “Vote by Mail Act” just last year. ‘s VBM Act passed last year. Federal legislation, Absentee ballot, track, retrieve and Confirm (TRAC) act HR 2510, and Universal Right to Vote by Mail Act., S. 3300, the Vote by Mail Act of 2010 18 million grant to study AVBM. 2 mil to states, 1 mil to smaller jurisdictions.f The five states are CO, NY, NJ, CA and ?

4. The Benefits: Continued The cost reduction is substantial. Oregon, for example, reports a 30 percent reduction in costs. Voters approve. Studies show 80 % approval rate in Oregon. Avoids long lines at polls and Election Day pressures Reported increase in turnout in Oregon and Washington. We can agree that is all good … but is there a downside? OR Sec. of ST Kate Brown, testified before SEN RULES, 1.81 in 1998, to 1.05 in Jan special election. SENATOR RON WYDEN testified that OREGON’S INCREASE in T.O. WAS 6% IN 3 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, GREATER FOR MIDTERMS. Current OR SOS Kate Brown confirms greater turnout. http://rules.senate.gov In California, which has all VBM at option of county in precincts under 250 voters, about 62% voted by mail . OR Sec. of ST Kate Brown, testified before SEN RULES, 1.81 in 1998, to 1.05 in Jan special election. SENATOR RON WYDEN testified that OREGON’S INCREASE in T.O. WAS 6% IN 3 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, GREATER FOR MIDTERMS. Current OR SOS Kate Brown confirms greater turnout. http://rules.senate.gov In California, which has all VBM at option of county in precincts under 250 voters, about 62% voted by mail .

5. Unintended Consequences Voter turnout may increase, but all an VBM election system does not broaden the electorate. Mobile voters and the homeless risk losing franchise. 2009 study shows all VBM has a disparate impact on minority voters, and VBM has a disparate impact on urban voters. VBM may provide a greater opportunity for voter coercion and election fraud All-VBM elections restrict access to polls for the more than 35% who currently choose not to vote by mail. Here we will briefly list the potential unintended consequences of adopting a all vote by mail election system, and will discuss them each separately. Here we will briefly list the potential unintended consequences of adopting a all vote by mail election system, and will discuss them each separately.

6. Voter Turnout and All VBM Oregon reports 6% increase over 3 presidential elections, but scholars see inconsistent results in studies. Some academic studies find modest increase, but VBM systems do not broaden participation. A 2007 California study found a slight decrease in turnout in all VBM precincts. 2009 California study also found turnout decreased. Finally, if we assume all VBM will increase turnout, who will it bring into electorate? Will some voters have less access, not more? Sen. Vote by mail voters, when self selected tend to be older, have higher incomes, and more education. In short, they look like Election Day voters. VBM, especially all VBM, does not increase turnout by bringing in more voters, but by retaining voters already inclined to vote. As to turnout, Patricia Southwell, Five Years Later, 2005, found only modest increase. Over 80 preferred VBM, but less than 67% voted more often.Prof Paul Gronke of EVIC, 2007, Early Voting and Turnout, found modest increases, and found them in midterms. Thad Kousser, Megan Mullen, 2007, Cal study. Go over reasons California is a good place to test assumptions. Bergman, Yates, and Ginnold, 2009, Adam J. Berinsky, the Perverse Consequences of electoral reform in the united states. american Politics research, Vol. 33 no. 4, July 2005 471-491 Sen. Vote by mail voters, when self selected tend to be older, have higher incomes, and more education. In short, they look like Election Day voters. VBM, especially all VBM, does not increase turnout by bringing in more voters, but by retaining voters already inclined to vote. As to turnout, Patricia Southwell, Five Years Later, 2005, found only modest increase. Over 80 preferred VBM, but less than 67% voted more often.Prof Paul Gronke of EVIC, 2007, Early Voting and Turnout, found modest increases, and found them in midterms. Thad Kousser, Megan Mullen, 2007, Cal study. Go over reasons California is a good place to test assumptions. Bergman, Yates, and Ginnold, 2009, Adam J. Berinsky, the Perverse Consequences of electoral reform in the united states. american Politics research, Vol. 33 no. 4, July 2005 471-491

7. Turnout in 2009 California Study This study involved 97,381 voters through four elections from 2006 to 2008 in California’s unique, precinct by precinct optional VBM system. Here are the findings: “When a mandatory vote-by-mail system is implemented, the estimated odds of an individual voter voting decreases by 13.2%.” “Communicating with voters about mandatory vote-by-mail matters a great deal and can eventually overcome the negative effect of being forced to vote by mail. This occurs when at least 4 pieces of communication are sent out by elections officials. “ This is a quote from Elizabeth Bergman, Cal. St., Phillip Yates, Cal. St. Poly., and Elain Ginnold, Marin Co Registrar. How Does Vote by Mail affect Voters: A Natural Experiment examining individual level turnout.This is a quote from Elizabeth Bergman, Cal. St., Phillip Yates, Cal. St. Poly., and Elain Ginnold, Marin Co Registrar. How Does Vote by Mail affect Voters: A Natural Experiment examining individual level turnout.

8. Who Gets a Ballot? All registered, “eligible electors” are to be mailed a ballot, but what of eligible voters in “inactive” status? Under Colorado’s current law, most inactive status voters would not receive a ballot or election notices. Voters in inactive status do not receive a ballot in Oregon, Washington, and California, in addition to Colorado. As many in the audience would know, in 2006, this led to 117,000voters not receiving their ballots in the mail. A person may be designated as inactive for several reasons, election notice returned, ballot returned, USPS NCOA . See 8 CCR 1505-1 for rule that inactive voters, except for those who are dubbed inactive due to faulure to coter. CRS 1-7.5-108.5? No ballot if inactive. As many in the audience would know, in 2006, this led to 117,000voters not receiving their ballots in the mail. A person may be designated as inactive for several reasons, election notice returned, ballot returned, USPS NCOA . See 8 CCR 1505-1 for rule that inactive voters, except for those who are dubbed inactive due to faulure to coter. CRS 1-7.5-108.5? No ballot if inactive.

9. RELIABILITY OF U.S. POSTAL SERVICE U.S. Postal Service reliability rates in 2007: 90% delivered for First Class mail 95% delivered for overnight mail Urban, multi-residential building pose special problems as do college campuses. For example, over 6 percent of Multomah County, OR ballots were undeliverable in 2004. In Benton County, over 7 percent were undeliverable. When considered with the inactive voter issue, this raises serious concerns. How do we address not getting ballots to voter and getting others to the wrong person? This was based on USPS reports, indicating that the agency performed up to expected standards Oregon data from my 2007 report. Colorado has had experience with this in recent years since the passage of optional vbm and for more years with no excuse mail in voting. This was based on USPS reports, indicating that the agency performed up to expected standards Oregon data from my 2007 report. Colorado has had experience with this in recent years since the passage of optional vbm and for more years with no excuse mail in voting.

10. Issues of Mobility Will all eligible voters in fact get a mail-in ballot? One in eight voters nationally changed residences from Jan. to Nov. of that year, according to 2008 CPS. Minorities, young people, singles and divorced people move at significantly above-average rates. 21 % of people with incomes under 25,000 change residences within one year, compared to 12 % of people over $100,000 Renters are three times more likely to move. How will a voter who has changed residence get the mail in ballot. What fail safe provisions can be made? Pretty much self explanatory Eighteen percent of Black and 9 percent of Multi-racial adult citizens reported in November 2008 that they were at their current address for less than year. Pretty much self explanatory Eighteen percent of Black and 9 percent of Multi-racial adult citizens reported in November 2008 that they were at their current address for less than year.

11. EFFECT ON URBAN & MINORITY VOTERS “Across voter stratifications, being forced to vote by mail has negative effects on the turnout of urban and minority (Hispanic and Asian) populations. For a mail ballot precinct and fixed election characteristics, the estimated odds of voting decreases: 50 % for urban voters; 30.3% for Asian voters; 27.3% for Hispanic voters “ How Does Vote By Mail Affect Voters? Bergman, Yates, Ginnold 2009 This is the first study that attempted to document whether Prof. Berinsky’s 2005 hypothesis was correct. Bergman, Yates, Ginnold 2009 Cal. Study pointed out that over 62 % of voters preferred vote by mail, leaving the question: what happens to the more than 35 percent who are compelled to vote by mail or go to a less accessible voting center? The Hispanic and Asian voters in this study were less likely to vote in an all VBM precinct than similarly situated Hispanic and Asian voters in a polling place district. The repeated experience of all VBM elections for this time period did not change these peoples’ attitudes toward VBM. This study naturally eliminates issues of whether other variable effect the responses, as the particular voters were all voting in the same elections and they were demographically matched. This is the first study that attempted to document whether Prof. Berinsky’s 2005 hypothesis was correct. Bergman, Yates, Ginnold 2009 Cal. Study pointed out that over 62 % of voters preferred vote by mail, leaving the question: what happens to the more than 35 percent who are compelled to vote by mail or go to a less accessible voting center? The Hispanic and Asian voters in this study were less likely to vote in an all VBM precinct than similarly situated Hispanic and Asian voters in a polling place district. The repeated experience of all VBM elections for this time period did not change these peoples’ attitudes toward VBM. This study naturally eliminates issues of whether other variable effect the responses, as the particular voters were all voting in the same elections and they were demographically matched.

12. The Issue of Election Fraud Election fraud in general, and especially fraud in the form of double-voting or impersonating a voter, is uncommon. Absentee mail-in voting, however, has been the most fertile ground for fraud. It can take the form of: (1) forging signatures or signing fictitious names; (2) coercing or influencing a vote; (3) vote buying; and (4) misappropriating absentee ballots. Safeguards, such as audits and signature matching, combined with limiting access to completed ballots can reduce the risks. Atlantic city mayoral race, 2009. Many others, vote buying blatant and not so blatant. “Voting parties,” can lead to vote by peer pressure. Not likely that this can be regulated. Atlantic city mayoral race, 2009. Many others, vote buying blatant and not so blatant. “Voting parties,” can lead to vote by peer pressure. Not likely that this can be regulated.

13. Best All Vote by Mail Practices Notice, Notice, Notice. Community outreach, Public Service Announcements Work with civic groups to get the message out Address communication challenges with diverse languages Effective communication & partnership with the USPS. Maintain or increase Early-in-Person voting centers. Registration portability legislation Make it easier for voters who have moved to obtain and cast a mail-in ballot. Introducing all VBM to the other 35% must be done slowly and over time. From start to finish, Oregon’s process took over Bergman and Yates found that at least 4 official mail notices of all VBM was needed to reduce impact of switching to all VBM elections. Introducing all VBM to the other 35% must be done slowly and over time. From start to finish, Oregon’s process took over Bergman and Yates found that at least 4 official mail notices of all VBM was needed to reduce impact of switching to all VBM elections.

14. Best Practices: Continued Make VBM ballots and envelopes visually distinguishable. Create effective fail-safe measures for eligible voters who, for whatever reason, fail to receive a ballot. Mail ballots to eligible voters who are inactive due to having been placed on the USPS NCOA list. Overall, introduce all VBM gradually. To avoid being “lost in the mail Give alternative means to vote. Oregon took nearly 20 years to implement its full VBM system. To avoid being “lost in the mail Give alternative means to vote. Oregon took nearly 20 years to implement its full VBM system.

  • Login