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Fully Supporting the Entire Project Lifecycle with Information Technology. Dr. James R. Burns, Professor College of Project Administration Texas Tech University Lubbock, Texas 79409-2101 Dr. Onur Ulgen, Professor Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering

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Fully supporting the entire project lifecycle with information technology l.jpg

Fully Supporting the Entire Project Lifecycle with Information Technology

Dr. James R. Burns, Professor

College of Project Administration

Texas Tech University

Lubbock, Texas 79409-2101

Dr. Onur Ulgen, Professor

Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering

University of Michigan, Dearborn

Dearborn, Michigan 48128


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Background

  • Existing products for project management do not support the entire lifecycle. As a result many projects fail because of

  • 1) poor definition of the ultimate product,

  • 2) a lack of specification of the Project case, or

  • 3) failure to determine a measurable value system by which benefit can be assessed

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Existing PM Software

  • . The existing PM software product space is populated with offerings that support only two of the four stages of the project lifecycle—a) planning and budgeting and b) execution and control. Existing tools do not support the beginning stage—definition and conceptualization--nor do they support the last stage—termination and closure.

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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This paper proposes an architecture for a project management tool that…

  • subsumes existing PM tools and provides for integrated project definition, planning, development, and closure.

  • suggests “prototypes” of specific features one would expect a total project management support tool to provide.

  • uses the Internet for multi-user collaboration.

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Focus

  • Reduction of time to project and product completion

  • Reduction of project and product cost

  • Increases in the contribution to customer-perceived value

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Architecture -- Components

  • Reusable requirements repository

  • Expert system

    • Knowledge base

      • Knowledge nets, Rules, Boolean Matrices

    • Inference engine

  • Wizards

  • Simulation tools

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Outline of Presentation

Project process Basics

Project Facilitation

Project Knowledge Representation and Inferencing

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Project Process Basics

  • Project processes have definable beginning and end points

  • Project processes have inputs consisting of information, material, energy, etc., which they transform into outputs also consisting of information, material, energy, etc.

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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More Project Process Basics

  • Project processes are created by higher-level Project processes that monitor and control their operation

  • Project processes report their status to their higher-level controlling Project processes

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Implications for Project Process Models

  • They should incorporate a hierarchical structure and include process components and the relationship between the processes as a minimum

  • Events, resources, actors, owners can be included as the modeler requires

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Process Dependency and Project Rules

  • Dependencies can be one-to-one, many-into-one, one-into-many, many into many

  • Process dependencies are determined by the Project RULES of the enterprise

  • Processes depend on other processes

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Reuse..one key to faster, cheaper project completions

  • Reusable requirements

  • Reusable project plans and budgets

  • Reusable functional specifications

  • Reusable design docs

  • Reusable code

  • Reusable test modules

  • Reusable knowledge

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Estimation…of time and cost

  • The weakest link in any project, IT or otherwise

  • Needed: reusable estimates of time and cost broken down by task and adjusted for the actual person doing the work

    • This is more than just a book of tables and formulas for determining time and cost

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Knowledge reuse

  • About techniques for faster, cheaper completions of projects

    • Crashing

    • Fast-tracking

    • Increasing parallelism

    • Minimizing changes to requirements

    • Doing it right the first time

    • Eliminate non-value-adding work

  • CODIFIED EXPERTISE is needed for all of these

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Knowledge related to chunking

  • To reduce testing time

  • To enhance maintainability

  • To reduce maintenance costs: the 1 to 3 rule

  • To reduce complexity

    • Bug fixing time goes up exponentially with increases in complexity

  • To create a plug and play landscape

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Computer-codified knowledge assistance with…

  • Requirements scrubbing

  • Removal of safety

  • Management of multitasking

  • Management of procrastination

  • Increasing focus

  • Deciding what to measure and reward

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Computer-codified knowledge assistance with…

  • Fire-fighting and expediting

  • Negotiations with stakeholders

  • Minimizing management interference

  • Change management

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Codified knowledge of best practices

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Change Board

Daily Build and Smoke test

Designing for Change

Evolutionary prototyping

Goal setting

Inspections

Joint Applications Development (JAD)

Lifecycle Model Selection

Measurement

Miniature Milestones

Outsourcing

Principled Negotiation

Agenda of Best Practices

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Productivity Environments

Rapid Development Languages

Requirements Scrubbing

Reuse

Signing Up

Spiral Lifecycle Model

Staged Delivery

Theory-W Management

Throwaway Prototyping

Timebox Development

Tools Group

Top-10 Risks List

User-Interface Prototyping

Voluntary Overtime

More best Practices

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Scope Management

Time Management

Cost Management

Quality Management

Integration Management

Risk Management

Communications Management

Procurement management

Human Resources Management

Codified knowledge and best-practice concepts are needed for every knowledge area in project management

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Measurements are a major problem with projects

  • Measurements should induce the parts to do what is good for the system as a whole

  • Measurements should direct managers to the point that needs their attention

  • So often it occurs that we measure the wrong thing.

  • The wrong measure leads to wrong behavior

    • Tell me how you measure me and I will show you how I behave

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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More Measurements

-5

-5

-5

+15

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Project Knowledge Representation

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Knowledge representation and Inferencing using Boolean Algebra/Binary Matrices

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Definitions

  • A = requirements document

  • B = project plan and proposal

  • C = functional specification

  • D = design document

  • E = code

  • F = test document

  • G = acceptance test plan

  • H = implementation

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Notation

  • Let eij = 1 if there is an edge directed from i to j and 0, otherwise

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Information contained in the above can be represented as

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Matrix Product

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Continuous Simulation

  • A way to capture behavioral and dynamic project knowledge

  • And do inferencing on it

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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A Project Blueprint Model

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Project Rules—another way to codify project knowledge

  • Project rules are a shorthand language for expressing the Project knowledge

    • Are the declarative scripts of the project

    • No matter what happens, one or more project rules would control what happens after that

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Project Rules

  • Project rules are a shorthand language for expressing the Project knowledge

    • Are the declarative script of the enterprise

    • No matter what happens, one or more Project rules would control what happens after that

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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The Project Rules

  • Any enterprise can be analyzed from a structural perspective, a functional perspective, and a behavioral or dynamical perspective (also called “viewpoint”)

  • Project rules apply to any and all of the enterprise perspectives

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Examples of Structural Project Rules

  • The enterprise should have a marketing department, personnel department, finance department, accounting department, and customer service department. (Organization rule)

  • Annual Total Profit = Annual Total Revenue – Annual Total Expense (Entity definition)

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Examples of Functional Rules

  • Functional rules are the rules that specify the goals and objectives of the enterprise. Basically, they collectively define the “what should be done (by whom)”. Examples of these rules are:

    • The enterprise should maintain at least 35% of the domestic market of product A.

    • The management of human resources is the responsibility of the managers throughout the company (as opposed to being established as a separate organizational unit)

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Behavioral Project Rules

  • Used to control the preconditions and post-conditions of the state changes of the enterprise

  • The form is…

    • When certain events occur and/or certain conditions hold true, then other events are triggered and the system undergoes state change

  • Clearly, there is a “chain of events” that gives rise to certain observed behaviors

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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A Simplified Project Process Model (SBPM)

  • Purpose is to capture relationships between sub processes represented as nodes

    • Such relationships exist when there is a triggering control sequence of events between the sub process nodes

  • There is a temporal sequence that we shall represent with a directed link between the sub process nodes

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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The SBPM is a Form of Knowledge Representation

  • The domain knowledge K consists of two components—the set V of Project process nodes and sub process nodes

  • The set E of relationships among the nodes; thus

  • K = <V,E>; i.e., K is a dyad of V and E

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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A Simplified Project Process Model (Diagram)

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Process Node Architecture Components

  • A task function that provides the services expected to be done at this node

  • An actor who is in charge of or responsible for the services of this node

  • Information storage for input/output of locally stored information

  • Information throughput capability

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Process Node Architecture Diagram

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Connectionist Approach to Project Knowledge Inferencing

  • The network of process nodes will have a mesh topology and might contain loops or cycles

  • The topology is a hierarchical one as exhibited in the following…

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Design Principles for Project Knowledge System (PKS)

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Design Principles for PKS, Continued

(1) Is a network representation of processing knowledge

(2) Represents the relative importance of the sub-process over the whole Project process

(3) Represents the influence of process nodes by weight values

(4) One-node-one-process representation (non-distributed representation)

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Design Principles for PKS, Continued

(5) Layered network will be both acyclic and cyclic, depending upon the specific type of analysis being applied

(6) Knowledge reasoning is accomplished by inferencing

(7) Knowledge updating is by learning

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Initialization of PKS knowledge network

  • Requires data (a specific set of inputs and outputs)

  • Utilizes a learning algorithm

  • Determines the weights attached to all of the connections, links between the nodes

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Inference

  • 1. Forward-chaining computation:

    • Find the effect of input/source process nodes;

    • Calculating the Performance Factor of the target process nodes;

  • 2. Backward-chaining computation

    • Find the causes or causal paths for a (or set of) target process node (probably which is a problematic one); and

  • Produce justifications/explanations for the conclusion

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Other inferencing schemes

  • Use of large sparse matrices and Boolean matrix algebra as reported in IEEE Trans on Sys, Man & Cyber, Vol. SMC-19, No. 1, pp. 58-68, January 1989. (Burns, et al.)

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Successful Applications

  • A managerial knowledge network (Decision Support Systems, North Holland Press, 1993—Jung, Burns)

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Learning

  • Humans learn from experience

  • This entails building and updating their knowledge structures

  • PKS learns in a similar manner

  • Initially, the Generalized Delta Rule or back propagation method will be utilized

  • This is the most important and most widely used algorithm for connectionist learning

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Analysis of the Discovered Knowledge Network

  • Can use simulation and system dynamics to assess and understand performance

  • Value analysis will be performed on the knowledge network

    • Process value analysis has its origins in total quality management

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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More analysis of the Knowledge Network

  • Can perform carbon/silicon replacement analysis

  • Can compare the knowledge network with the original enterprise model

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Simulation and System Dynamics

  • To understand why a particular behavior is being exhibited

  • To conduct “What if” experiments to see if there are better structures that will produce more desirable behavior

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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A Dynamic Process Model

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Behavior of the Dynamic Process Model

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Process Value Analysis

  • Might find that some nodes add no value and that a simpler network might achieve the same process outputs or results at lower cost and shorter cycle times, indeed even better quality

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Summary

  • A project Knowledge base and inference schemes are badly needed to codify project knowledge

  • Several knowledge representation and inferencing schemes were investigated

    • Boolean algebra/binary matrices

    • Rules

    • Knowledge network

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Summary, Cont’d

  • Such a system would

    • Produce a basis for continuous learning and improvement

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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Questions??!?

  • Thank you for coming!!

Burns & Ulgen, Fully Supporting the PM Lifecycle -- USP Conference -- September 2003


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