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On The Road Real-World EV User Experience. The CABLED ( C oventry & B irmingham L ow E missions D emonstrator) program aims to evaluate real world usage of low carbon vehicles to reduce city congestion and emissions.

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Presentation Transcript
slide2

The CABLED (Coventry & Birmingham Low Emissions Demonstrator) program aims to evaluate real world usage of low carbon vehicles to reduce city congestion and emissions

leadtime from functional concept to volume production can be a longer path than is often assumed
Leadtime from functional concept to volume production can be a longer path than is often assumed

Automatic Transmission 1930-1946 16 years

Radio 1890-1914 24 years

Radar 1904-1939 35 years

Helicopter 1904-1941 37 years

Television 1884-1947 63 years

Ballpoint Pen 1938-1945 7 years

Zipper 1883-1913 30 years

Instant Coffee 1934-1956 22 years

beckhard s change model gives us a simple way to assess the difficulties of implementing change
Beckhard’s change model gives us a simple way to assess the difficulties of implementing change

C = (ABD) > X

C = Change

A = Level of dissatisfaction with status quo

B = Desirability of the proposed change or end state

D = Practicality of the change (minimal risk and disruption)

X = ‘Cost’ of changing

Automotive industry particularly conservative due to levels of investment and tight margins

slide5

Although other transport modes, such as bus, train & cycling can help reduce emissions and congestion, the use of private cars will remain and important means of transport in any future system

Number of trips

National Transport Survey 2009

slide6
Typical transport needs indicate that compact vehicles have and important part to play in current and future transport requirements.

National Transport Survey 2009

People Travelling in Vehicle

slide7
We know from previous studies that people use their existing petrol and diesel vehicles for shorter trips than they think…..
  • >90% Trips engine speed <3000rpm
  • 50-60% Trips oil/water temp. <65°C
  • 20-23% of Urban trip duration, engine is at idle.

Source: GM Study & SAE 890874

slide9

Technology roadmaps provide high level trends, but are often dependant on external determinants e.g. energy pricing, taxation and government policy

Source: NAIGT

slide11
Grid mix makes dramatic differences in vehicle CO2 impacts. Grid mix changes are long term strategic drivers.
real world user experience can vary considerably from test and official cycle data
Real-world user experience can vary considerably from test and official cycle data

RAC low carbon vehicle Brighton run (same route, same day), shows considerable variation across same vehicle models and types

cabled consortium members
CABLED Consortium Members

Academia

Local Government

Project

Management

Infrastructure

Vehicle Manufacturers

cabled trial part of uk technology strategy board 350 demonstrator of ultra low carbon vehicles
CABLED trial part of UK Technology Strategy Board 350 demonstrator of ultra low carbon vehicles

Mitsubishi

Tata

Smart

LTi

LandRover

Microcab

Number of cars in the trial

25

25

45

5

5

8

H2

Public Trial

Industry Trial

Electric

Hybrid

Fuel Cell

  • Typical Specification for EV:
    • Max range: 80-100 miles
    • Recharge times: 6-8 hours
    • Max speed: 70-80 mph

http://www.cabled.org.uk/

data via satellite gathered from each vehicle 24 7 over 12 month period user
Data via satellite gathered from each vehicle 24/7 over 12 month period/user
  • Map Usage of vehicles over extended period
    • Familiarly gained with vehicle (changing behaviours)
    • Seasonality effects observed
    • Comparative studies done with information flow
      • Conventional Vs EV range
      • Charge-point location/number
      • Efficiency & state of charge data
      • Charging cost incentives
slide18
Vehicles received full usage throughout hot & cold seasons. No significant seasonality effects observed on battery performance or range
slide19

Typical vehicle speeds follow the expected profile for normal city/urban driving patterns dominated by traffic flow, with occasional highway excursions

High idle times (zero speed) removed for clarity

slide20

Average daily mileage for all EV trips is in line with national transport surveys for petrol and diesel vehicles. Total daily use of the vehicle is less than half of the battery capacity of a typical EV.

daily mileage showed some signs of increasing with confidence over user lease period
Daily mileage showed some signs of increasing with confidence over user lease period
slide24

Individual journey distance covered for EV’s indicates a bias towards short trips, consistent with normal driving styles seen with conventional petrol and diesel vehicles.

slide25

Users journey durations (minutes). This indicates that most journeys are of short duration, giving opportunity for re-charging. Vehicles are typically parked for >95% of the time in a 24 our period.

charging done for convenience at locations of high residency time no incentives
Charging done for convenience at locations of high residency time (no incentives)

ACD 2:35

ACD: Average Charge Duration time (hours:minutes)

ACD 2:32

ACD 2:36

ACD 1:04

slide32
Using data from conventional (petrol & diesel car) trips, we see that EV’s maximum range can cover over 98% of typical user daily trips

EV Range

National Transport Survey 2005

user perceptions altered by exposure to ev trial often counter intuitive
User perceptions altered by exposure to EV trial. Often counter intuitive.

Range anxiety significantly reduced (down from 100% to <20% in three months)

Primary concerns shifted to cost and convenience (residual value/battery life)

Self directed adjustments in driving behaviors, such as use of heater/AC

‘Green’ interests do not translate into behaviors

- Key behavioral changes in response to financial incentives

Owners want to ‘own’ the vehicle, but willing to compromise on battery leasing.

EV’s not for everyone – Some self-selection present in the trial users (expensive lease, early adopters, off-street parking requirement, typically second car, etc.)

slide34
Congestion zones and other legislative incentives have had largest effect on technology adoption rates

London congestion zone has influenced purchase of new vehicles and use of public transport

Plans for expanded and additional congestion zone in other regions are well advanced

uk plugged in places charging infrastructure programs
UK Plugged-in-Places charging infrastructure programs

8,500 Plugged-in-Places public charging points being installed – Reduced from 12,000 based on London trial

Government very focused on private sector funding carrying the investment burden going forward

stratified approach to charging infrastructure placement example london 2015
Stratified approach to charging infrastructure placement – Example London 2015

Source: Transport for London

personal travel patterns likely to be more significant factor in transport choices in future
Personal travel patterns likely to be more significant factor in transport choices in future

Rural Transport

Mode: FullHEV & FCV

City

City

Inter-City Transport

Mode: FCV & public

City

Sub-Urban Transport

Mode: MildHEV & BEV

Urban Transport

Mode: BEV & public

slide38

Future personal transport choices likely to be determined by evaluation of specific personal lifestyle needs, rather than adopting a flexible solution, such as an ICE vehicle

Source: Bironi-Bird 2010

location

Application

Range

ultra low carbon technologies are often subject to aggressive adoption projections
Ultra low carbon technologies are often subject to aggressive adoption projections

New Car Sales (Not Vehicle Parc)

Prius hybrid sales still account for <5% of Toyota sales after nearly 15 years on the market

Despite UK government incentives, EV sales less than 10% of targets

(680EV’s Jan-Sept 2011 against 8,600 target for Jan 2012)

slide40

The journey to large scale take-up of BEV’s is probably longer than we anticipated, has some twists and turns along the way. There is more than one possible road to our destination, but we are heading in the right direction and will get there soon…..

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