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UK INDUSTRIAL ENERGY DEMAND

UK INDUSTRIAL ENERGY DEMAND. Projections to 2030. Historic Industrial Consumption Trends. Total -40% 1970-2008, driven by coal and oil Rapid increase in gas use early 70s then 90s Elect. has grown, levelled and declined Renewables sneaking into picture but remain small. Industrial Output.

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UK INDUSTRIAL ENERGY DEMAND

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  1. UK INDUSTRIAL ENERGY DEMAND Projections to 2030

  2. Historic Industrial Consumption Trends Total -40% 1970-2008, driven by coal and oil Rapid increase in gas use early 70s then 90s Elect. has grown, levelled and declined Renewables sneaking into picture but remain small

  3. Industrial Output Overall trend of increasing output Iron & steel and non-ferrous metals in decline

  4. Energy Intensity Falling, assumed exponential decay is underlying trend

  5. Projections to 2030: Assumptions (1) Group assumptions for pop. growth vary slightly from ONS stats, but close enough. Growth: 2010-2020 6.9%, 2010-2030 13.4%

  6. Projections to 2030: Assumptions (2) Used default DECC assumptions of central prices, centrally derived policies, and center growth. DECC growth consistent with HM Treasury – no need to modify. Group answers to policy questions align well with DECC central policy, emphasis on pricing instruments. Used linear regression from 2022 to 2030, based on DECC projections to 2022. Balanced this against expectations for use within sub-sectors.

  7. Projections: Overall Total demand grows 10% from 2010, to 1,260PJ

  8. Projections: By Sector Decline in steel and metals continues. Growth in unclassified ‘other’ industries

  9. Projections: By Fuel Fossil fuels decline Steady rise in electricity Rapid growth in renewables

  10. Comments Linear regression is not the most sophisticated tool – check against expected behaviour. Projections mainly based on historical performance, difficult to assess future changes within industry. Does not take account of changes outside of industry. Upcoming shortfall in UK generation capacity an example of this.

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