The Pan European NEEDS-TIMES model

1. SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1] [ Sustainable Energy Systems] The Pan European NEEDS-TIMES model Markus Blesl First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark, February 6, 2008 CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

2. Objective of NEEDS The ultimate objective of the NEEDS Integrated Project is to evaluate the full costs and benefits (i.e. direct + external) of energy policies and of future energy systems, both at the level of individual countries and for the enlarged EU as a whole. From the scientific and technological viewpoint, this entails major advancements in the current state of knowledge in the following main areas of: • Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of energy technologies • Monetary valuation of externalities associated to energy production, transport, conversion and use • Integration of LCA and externalities information into policy formulation and scenario building • Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), which allows examining the robustness of the proposed technological solutions in view of stakeholder preferences. CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

3. Structure of NEEDS SOCIO-ECONOMIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS + INITIAL TECHNICAL DATA (RS2a + input from Other Streams) LIFE CYCLE DATA (RS1a) EXTERNALITIES (RS1b, RS1c) TECHNOLOGY DATABASE (ALL STREAMS) COHERENT ENERGY-TECHNOLOGY & TRADE PATHWAYS (RS2a) OTHER INDICATORS, SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE, MCDA (RS2b) CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008 Source: Richard Loulou 3rd Integration Meeting

4. Objectives of the Modeling part in NEEDS • To generate via The Integrated MARKAL- EFOM System (TIMES) partial equilibrium technology rich economic models of each Member Stateand of the EU as a whole (Pan-European model), including the most important emissions, materials, and damage functions used by LCA and ExternE, in their long term development. • To compare scenarios that simulate various policy approaches (setting thresholds for CO2 emission, renewables penetration, etc.) using the key base data received form the other streams to calculate equilibrium quantities and prices. CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

5. Technology oriented analysis of energy system models • with focus on greenhouse gas abatement strategies: • - Analysis of national and multinational strategies • - Technology data review • - Model development (MARKAL, TIMES) ETSAP IEA (International Energy Agency) Implementing Agreements Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) Implementing Agreement Implementing Agreement Operating Agent www.etsap.org Outreach CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

6. Methodology • Bottom-up Model • Perfect competition • Perfect foresight • Optimisation (LP) Min/Max Objective function s.t. Equations, Constraints Decision Variables <=> Solution Input parameters • TOOLS • ANSWER, ABARE • VEDA, GERAD • HALOA, GERAD • Development • The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System • By ETSAP • Implementation in GAMS • Model generator • Applications (IER) • TIMES-BY • TIMES-GES • TIMES-D • TIMES-EE • TIMES-World TIMES • Future Features • NLP (experience curves, macroeconomic linkage) • Stochastic Programming • MCP (Multi-agent model) Features • Regions • Elastic demands • Vintaging • Inter-temporal • Load curve • Endogeneous technological learning • Discrete capacity expansion CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

7. capacities price cost Cost balance Net production- value Process energy space heating Area Person Light Communication Force Personal- kilometres Tonne- kilometres Inland production Import Coal refining Industry Refinery Demand values Power plant and Grid Commercial Energy carrier prices, Resources availability Domestic CHP and District Heat Transport Gas pipelines Primary Energy Emission Energy flow Demand Emissions balance End energy Basic structure of energy system models CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

8. Characterization of the Pan-European TIMES model • 29 region model (EU 25 + Ro, No, CH, IS) • Energy system model • SUPPLY: reserves, resources, exploration and conversion Country specific renewable potential and availability (onshore wind, offshore wind, geothermal, biomass, biogas, hydro) • Electricity: public electricity plants, CHP plants and heating plants • Residential and Commercial: All end use technologies (space heating, water heating, space cooling and others) • Industry: Energy intensive industry (Iron and steel, aluminium copper ammonia and chlorine, cement, glass, lime, pulp and paper), other industries , autoproducer and boilers • Transport: Different transport modes (cars, buses, motorcycles, trucks, passenger trains, freight trains), aviation and navigation • Country specific differences for characterisation of new conversion and end-use technologies • Time horizon 2000-2050 • GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 /Others pollutants: SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, PM2.5, PM10 CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

9. The modelling team of the country models CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

10. RSDELC INDELC COMELC ELCHIG ELCHIGG ELCMED ELCLOW TRAELC ... EVTRANS_H-M RSDELC00 EVTRANS_H-H EVTRANS_M-L ~ grid cost medium ~ cost for distribution voltage grid plus according to grid Generation ~ grid cost high H-M transformer ~ grid cost low tariffs of the certain voltage grid voltage grid plus demand group M-L transformer Import INDELC00 Export COMELC00 TRAELC00 Pump Storage Decentralized ~ modelling of pump Generation Generation LOW storage process here VOLTAGE only scematic Electricity structure in the PAN-European Model CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

11. The Pan-European TIMES model- Linking the countries together by electricity exchange CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

12. Scenario analysis - The Key Policy Cases in the NEEDS Project • Specification of the Baseline case (BAU) • Post-Kyoto climate policy to stabilize CO2e concentrations at 440 ppmv (CO2) • Enhancement of endogenous energy resources, (constraining imports of fossil fuels to foster the use of renewables, efficiency standards and new nuclear) • Improve environmental quality by endogenizing externalities related to local air pollution ( i.e., w/o global externalities) Today + SENTECH CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

13. Total CO2 emission in the EU 27 CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

14. Total final energy consumption EU 27 CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

15. Total final energy consumption industry EU 27 CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

16. Total final energy consumption transport EU27 CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

17. Total final energy consumption residential EU27 CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

18. Net electricity generation in TWh CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

19. Net electricity generation in TWh CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

20. Net electricity generation capacity in [GW] CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

21. Net electricity generation capacity in [GW] CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

22. Net electricity generation capacity by technologies in [GW] CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

23. Total primary energy consumption EU CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

24. Net production- value Process energy space heating Area Person Light Communication Force Personal- kilometres Tonne- kilometres Inland production Import Coal refining Industry Refinery Power plant and Grid Commercial Domestic CHP and District Heat Transport Gas pipelines Demand End energy Integration of LCA and External costs in the Pan-European TIMES model Cost per pollutant cost Cost balance capacities price Capacities Emission Demand values Energy carrier prices, Resources availability Emission Primary Energy Energy flow Emission Emissions balance CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008

25. Thank you for your attention ! CEEH Workshop Roskilde, February 6, 2008