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Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway using an economic model. Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon,28-20 April 2010. Helge Brunborg and Ådne Cappelen Research Department Statistcs Norway. Migration to and from Norway, 1970-2008.

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forecasting migration flows to and from norway using an economic model

Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway using an economic model

Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

Lisbon,28-20 April 2010

Helge Brunborg and Ådne Cappelen

Research Department

Statistcs Norway

migration to and from norway 1970 2008
Migration to and from Norway, 1970-2008

Rapid growth: Net immigration quadrupled in 4 years

registered and projected net immigration to norway
Registered and projected net immigration to Norway

Immigration

Projections

Emigration

Net immigration

migration of polish citizens to and from norway
Migration of Polish citizens to and from Norway

Immigration

Net immigration of Polish citizens

2003: 300

2007: 13 000

Net immigration

Emigration

slide5

Migration of Icelandic citizens between Iceland and Norway

Thick lines: Statistics Norway

Thin lines: Statistics Iceland

Iceland  Norway

Net

Norway  Iceland

norwegian economy
Norwegian economy
  • Rapid economic growth due to oil and gas in the North Sea
  • Most of the revenue from the North Sea invested in The Government Pension Fund - Global
  • In 2007 the GDP per capita in Norway 76% higher than in OECD
  • Low unemployment, 2-4% in recent years
  • High demand for labour in the construction sector
  • Norway also hit by the financial crisis, but is recovering
migration theories
Migration theories
  • People migrate when the expected income is greater than the current income, less migration costs (Todaro)
  • Individual migration behavior is guided by the search for better economic opportunities (Borjas)
methods for projecting migration
Methods for projecting migration
  • A projection of population must rest, in part, on a projection of immigration. Yet most official immigration projections … rely on ad-hoc assumptions based on little theory and virtually no definable methodology (Howe and Jackson 2006)
  • Official statistical agencies: Mostly trend extrapolation
  • A few other attempts (Australia <–> New Zealand; British Columbia)
  • EUROPOP 2008: net migration flows between member countries will convergence linearly to zero in the convergence year ( 2150)
theoretical framework
Theoretical framework

Migration from country of origin (o) to country of destination (d) is a function of individual observables and unobservable characteristics:

ln wo = μo + εo where εo ~ N (0, σo2)

ln wd = μd + εd where εd ~ N (0, σd2)

Decision to migrate:

I = ln (wd/(wo + c)) ≈ (μd - μo - δ ) + εd - εo

c and δ: level of mobility costs.

Migration if I > 0

Probality of emigration from country o to country d:

P = Pr (εd - εo > - (μd - μo - δ ))

empirical analysis
Empirical analysis

Gross flows between Norway and

  • Denmark
  • Sweden
  • OECD countries
  • Asia and Africa

For Sweden and Denmark:

lnMij = a0 + a1 ln (incomei/incomej) + a2 Ginii + a3Ui + a4Uj + a5lnMjj t-1

slide12

Sweden  Norway

Denmark  Norway

modelling immigration from europe and america by ols 1972 2008 to be used in projections
Modelling immigration from Europe and America by OLS, 1972 – 2008, to be used in projections

Dependent variable: LnMt

Coefficient Std.Error t-value

Constant 1.101 0.566 1.95

LnMt-1 0.565 nn.081 6.98

Dummy1993 0.312 0.070 4.46

Dummy1999 0.162 0.073 2.21

Dummy2005 0.166 0.052 3.21

UnNORt - UnNORt-2 -0.062 0.013 -4.82

LnGDPNort-2 0.669 0.152 4.40

UnOECDt – UnOECD t 0.034 0.023 1.49

R2 = 0.96 F = 108.5

migration from and to eu and other western countries
Migration from and to EU and other Western countries

Estimated on data for 1966-2009

Immigration

Net immigration

Emigration

slide20
Migration from and to non-Western countries:non-EU Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia, Latin-America, Oceania except Australia and New Zealand

Estimated on data for 1966-2009

Immigration

Net immigration

Emigration

total migration to and from norway
Total migration to and from Norway

Estimated on data for 1966-2009

Immigration

Net immigration

Emigration

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