Forecasting migration flows to and from norway using an economic model
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 22

Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway using an economic model PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 53 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway using an economic model. Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon,28-20 April 2010. Helge Brunborg and Ådne Cappelen Research Department Statistcs Norway. Migration to and from Norway, 1970-2008.

Download Presentation

Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway using an economic model

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Forecasting migration flows to and from norway using an economic model

Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway using an economic model

Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

Lisbon,28-20 April 2010

Helge Brunborg and Ådne Cappelen

Research Department

Statistcs Norway


Migration to and from norway 1970 2008

Migration to and from Norway, 1970-2008

Rapid growth: Net immigration quadrupled in 4 years


Registered and projected net immigration to norway

Registered and projected net immigration to Norway

Immigration

Projections

Emigration

Net immigration


Migration of polish citizens to and from norway

Migration of Polish citizens to and from Norway

Immigration

Net immigration of Polish citizens

2003: 300

2007: 13 000

Net immigration

Emigration


Forecasting migration flows to and from norway using an economic model

Migration of Icelandic citizens between Iceland and Norway

Thick lines: Statistics Norway

Thin lines: Statistics Iceland

Iceland  Norway

Net

Norway  Iceland


Immigration to norway by registered reason for immigration

Immigration to Norway by registered reason for immigration


Norwegian economy

Norwegian economy

  • Rapid economic growth due to oil and gas in the North Sea

  • Most of the revenue from the North Sea invested in The Government Pension Fund - Global

  • In 2007 the GDP per capita in Norway 76% higher than in OECD

  • Low unemployment, 2-4% in recent years

  • High demand for labour in the construction sector

  • Norway also hit by the financial crisis, but is recovering


Migration theories

Migration theories

  • People migrate when the expected income is greater than the current income, less migration costs (Todaro)

  • Individual migration behavior is guided by the search for better economic opportunities (Borjas)


Methods for projecting migration

Methods for projecting migration

  • A projection of population must rest, in part, on a projection of immigration. Yet most official immigration projections … rely on ad-hoc assumptions based on little theory and virtually no definable methodology (Howe and Jackson 2006)

  • Official statistical agencies: Mostly trend extrapolation

  • A few other attempts (Australia <–> New Zealand; British Columbia)

  • EUROPOP 2008: net migration flows between member countries will convergence linearly to zero in the convergence year ( 2150)


Theoretical framework

Theoretical framework

Migration from country of origin (o) to country of destination (d) is a function of individual observables and unobservable characteristics:

ln wo = μo + εo where εo ~ N (0, σo2)

ln wd = μd + εd where εd ~ N (0, σd2)

Decision to migrate:

I = ln (wd/(wo + c)) ≈ (μd - μo - δ ) + εd - εo

c and δ: level of mobility costs.

Migration if I > 0

Probality of emigration from country o to country d:

P = Pr (εd - εo > - (μd - μo - δ ))


Empirical analysis

Empirical analysis

Gross flows between Norway and

  • Denmark

  • Sweden

  • OECD countries

  • Asia and Africa

    For Sweden and Denmark:

    lnMij = a0 + a1 ln (incomei/incomej) + a2 Ginii + a3Ui + a4Uj + a5lnMjj t-1


Forecasting migration flows to and from norway using an economic model

Sweden  Norway

Denmark  Norway


Gdp per capita in ppp norway relative to oecd

GDP per capita in PPP. Norway relative to OECD


Unemployment rates in oecd and in norway 1970 2030

Unemployment rates in OECD and in Norway 1970-2030


Forecasting migration flows to and from norway using an economic model

Estimation of the rate of migration from groups of countries to Norway


Modelling immigration from europe and america by ols 1972 2008 to be used in projections

Modelling immigration from Europe and America by OLS, 1972 – 2008, to be used in projections

Dependent variable: LnMt

Coefficient Std.Error t-value

Constant 1.101 0.566 1.95

LnMt-1 0.565 nn.081 6.98

Dummy1993 0.312 0.070 4.46

Dummy1999 0.162 0.073 2.21

Dummy2005 0.166 0.052 3.21

UnNORt - UnNORt-2 -0.062 0.013 -4.82

LnGDPNort-2 0.669 0.152 4.40

UnOECDt – UnOECD t 0.034 0.023 1.49

R2 = 0.96 F = 108.5


Gross and net migration flows to norway history and forecasts

Gross and net migration flows to Norway History and forecasts


Forecasting migration flows to and from norway using an economic model

Net immigration to NorwayRegistered 1990-2009 and projected 2009-2060


Migration from and to eu and other western countries

Migration from and to EU and other Western countries

Estimated on data for 1966-2009

Immigration

Net immigration

Emigration


Forecasting migration flows to and from norway using an economic model

Migration from and to non-Western countries:non-EU Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia, Latin-America, Oceania except Australia and New Zealand

Estimated on data for 1966-2009

Immigration

Net immigration

Emigration


Total migration to and from norway

Total migration to and from Norway

Estimated on data for 1966-2009

Immigration

Net immigration

Emigration


Thank you for your attention

Thank you for your attention


  • Login