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IRELAND: MIGRATION AND EU ENLARGEMENT Kevin Quinn

IRELAND: MIGRATION AND EU ENLARGEMENT Kevin Quinn Manager, International Employment Services FAS Ireland Keflavic 30 th May 2008. Irish Employment 1988-2007. Irish Economic Facts. GDP (2007) €185bn GDP Growth (2007) 5.3% GDP per Capita (2007) €42,581 ($64k)

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IRELAND: MIGRATION AND EU ENLARGEMENT Kevin Quinn

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  1. IRELAND: MIGRATION AND EU ENLARGEMENTKevin Quinn Manager, International Employment ServicesFASIreland Keflavic 30th May 2008

  2. Irish Employment 1988-2007

  3. Irish Economic Facts GDP (2007) €185bn GDP Growth (2007) 5.3% GDP per Capita (2007) €42,581 ($64k) Irish GDP per Capita as % of EU 142% Inflation (2007) 4.9% Current Account Deficit (2007) 5.9% of GDP Population (2007) 4.3 million Average Full Time Wage (2007) €764 National Minimum Wage (July 2007) €8.65 per hour Weekly Unemployment All.(Jan 2008) €197.80 Adult Dependent (Jan 2008) €131.30

  4. Implications for Eures Ireland,implications for Eures, Europe Still a shortage of key workers

  5. 1995 2007 Population 3.6m 4.3m Population Aged 15+ 2.7m 3.7m Employment 1.28m 2.1m Employment rate 47% 69% Unemployment 177,000 101,000 Unemployment rate 12.2% 4.5% Dependency rate 64% 51% Change in Socio-Economic Indicators 1995-2006

  6. Employment Growth 1998-2007

  7. Labour Force Growth Decomposed

  8. To Twenty-five….and then? 450k? How far east?

  9. To Twenty-five….and then? 450k? How far east?

  10. Post-enlargement migration trend Peak

  11. Minimum Monthly Salary in the EU

  12. Sectoral Employment Growth by Nationality Since Enlargement

  13. Unemployment Rising Rapidly

  14. Labour demand has been strong

  15. …..but shortages have been bearable

  16. …..but employers increasingly pessimistic

  17. Employment Growth 1996-2009

  18. Forecast

  19. Implications for Eures, Ireland.Implications for Eures, Europe.Skilled available workforceStill a shortage(20,000) key workersWe brought them over, we have a responsibilityEures must be more proactive on policyWe have a system, lets use it!

  20. Conclusions • Irish Labour Market has been the envy of Europe • There has also been cyclical variation • Second wave of the boom is coming to an end • Unemployment will depend on labour supply response • Volatility makes medium-term prospects uncertain • Some groups will be particularly vulnerable

  21. Thank you! Komið og dansið með okkur á Írlandi

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