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Combined approach using the electromagnetic precursory phenomena and critical phenomena for a short-term earthquake prediction. Tokyo. We are here!. Nagoya. Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai University Toshiyasu NAGAO. Today ’ s talk. What is “ Seismo-Electromagnetics ”

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We are here

Combined approach using the electromagnetic precursory phenomena and critical phenomena for a short-term earthquake prediction

Tokyo

We are

here!

Nagoya

Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai University

Toshiyasu NAGAO


Today s talk

Today’s talk

  • What is “Seismo-Electromagnetics”

    some examples (California and Japan)

  • Greek VAN method

  • Introduction of Natural Time analysis

  • Introduction of LAI (Lithosphere-Atmosphere and Ionosphere) coupling


What is seismo electromagnetics

What is “Seismo-Electromagnetics”

  • Research for electromagnetic phenomena possibly associated with (impending) earthquakes.

  • It has a long history, however the existence of the phenomena themselves still have a lot of arguments.

  • Best-known example is the case of the M7.1 Loma Prieta (California) EQ in 1989 (Fraser-Smith et al., 1990)

However………

We know that

  -> EM phenomena preceded by EQs are so small !


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M7.1 Loma Prieta (California) EQ in 1989


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DC

0.1

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

(Hz)

Method and Frequency range

Seismo-Electromagnetics

in Japan

telluric current

3-comp. magnetic

ULF

Brown letters

Signals emitted from the lithosphere

Narrow band 3-comp. magnetic

ELF

Blue letters

Ionosphere/troposphere

anomaly

(radio wave transmission

anomaly)

2-comp. magnetic for direction

finding

EM pulse measurements in a

borehole

VLF

Anomalous transmission of radio

waves

LF

ULF to VHF

Vertical E-field

measurements in a borehole

MF

HF

FM broadcast wave anomalous

transmission

VHF

Natural noise observation

Micro wave observation


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Nagao et al., 2002

(J. Geodynamics)


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Seismo-Electromagnetic studies in Japan

Signals emitted from the lithosphere

DC telluric current (Tokai, Hokkaido, Tokyo, Chiba Univs.)

ULF 3-comp. magnetic (Tokai, Chiba, ECU, Hokkaido, Chubu Univs.)

ELF narrow band 3-comp. magnetic (Chubu, Naoya Tech. Univs.)

VLF on-land magnetic direction finding (Tokai Univ.)

VLF borehole electromagnetic pulses (Kyoto Sangyo Univ.)

Broad band (VLF-VHF) electromagnetic field (Osaka Univ.)

Micro wave (JAXA, Chiba Univ.)

Ionosphere/troposphere anomaly

VLF-LF radio wave anomalous transmission (ECU, Chubu Univ.)

GPS-TEC anomaly (Chiba, Tokyo Gakugei, ECU Univs.)

VHF FM radio wave anomalous transmission (Hokkaido, Tokyo Gakugei, Tokai

Chiba Univs., ECU, Okayama Univ. of Science)

Atmospheric electric field (Tokyo Gakugei, Waseda Univs.)

Underground Electric field (Akita Pref. Univ.)

Lab. experiments

Tokyo, Tokyo Metropolitan, Osaka, Tokai Univs. JAXA)


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Izu 2000 events (volcanic eruption and intense seismic activity)

3-comp. magnetometer array


Izu 1998 2000

Izu 1998-2000

Activity

started

Eigenvalue (λ3, 0.1Hz)

Izu Pen.3-comp. Mag array.

E-field Niijima (0.01Hz)

2000

1998

1999


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Telluric current record


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Collapsed station

at Kozu Island

July 2002


Van method

VAN method

  • Greek scientists, Varotsos, Alexopoulos, and Nomikos initiated in 1980’s.

  • Based on multi-dipole DC-electric field observation

  • Anomaly (SES) appears before the impending sizable earthquake (EQ).

  • They claimed that they predicted M≥5 Greek EQs. The criteria for successful prediction are: < a few weeks in time, <0.7 units in magnitude (M, hereafter), and <100 km in epicentral distance. The length of time window depends on the type of signals (a few days to months).


Recognition of the van method

Recognition of the VAN method

  • Generally, not well recognized among the seismological community

  • A lot of debates/counterarguments

    Recent EOS articles

    Geophys. Res. Lett. 23 (debates of VAN)

  • VAN group’s way of writing is not reader oriented (difficult to understand)


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On going forecast!

http://arxiv.org/abs/0904.2465


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Cornell University website http://arxiv.org/abs/0904.2465

The same holds for a non-dichotomous signals

on March 28, 2009 at Keratea station located

close to Athens (Fig. 8)

To approach the occurrence time of the impending

event, the procedure developed in Ref 32 has been

employed for the seismicity within are N37.7-

38.8, E22.6-24.1.


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(New Scientist)

Natural Time Analysis

  • P. A. Varotsos and his group

  • Natural Time Analysis is effective to predict a critical point in the time-series of critical phenomena.

    • Large earthquakes

      • Varotsos et al., Phys. Rev. E,2002, 2003, 2006, 2007

    • Phase transition on 2D Ising spin systems

      • Varotsos et al., Phys. Rev. E, 2003

    • Heart attack

      • Varotsos et al., Phys. Rev. E,2004, 2005


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k : k th event

N : total number of events

Natural Time

(Varotsos, Is time continuous ?, submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett., 2008)


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Self-organized Criticality

Plate motion

Is EQ SOC phenomenon ?

Critical phenomena -> SOC o

SOC -> Critical phenomena X

EQs

(Sand pile model)

Bak et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. (1987)

Bak & Tang J. Geophys. Res. (1989)


Critical point

Triggering ?

Large EQ

Critical point

Critical point

(Long range correlation)


One case conventional time

Divorce

One Case (Conventional Time)

Critical Point

Extramarital affair

Energy

Second affair

First Fight

Fight

Fight

Conventional Time


Another case conventional time

Divorce

Another Case (Conventional Time)

Critical Point

Extramarital affair

Energy

Second affair

First Fight

Fight

Fight

Conventional Time


Similar shape

Similar Shape

Energy

0

Natural Time

1


We are here

Power spectrum

Qxk

: Seismic Moment

: Natural frequency

ω

Power spectrum at Critical Point ?


We are here

Candidate of Critical Point


Coincidence

Coincidence


Time series of

Coincidence

Coincidence

Time series of


True coincidence

True Coincidence

Coincidence

Scale invariance

(Magnitude and Area)

True Coincidence


2000 izu swarm eqs uyeda kamogawa tanaka jgr 2009

2000 Izu Swarm EQs(Uyeda, Kamogawa & Tanaka, JGR, 2009)


Time series of power spectrum

Time-series of power spectrum


Time series of k1

Time series of k1

Candidate of

True Coincidence


Tentative conclusion

Tentativeconclusion

  • EM phenomena may reflect critical state of the crust (at least Greek group claims that SES is a critical phenomenon)

  • EM phenomena are not statistical but deterministic ones

  • Combination of multi-parameter monitoring is essentially important

  • If EQs are critical phenomena, Natural Time analysis may connect seismicity and SES activity (EM phenomena)


Future plans

Future Plans

  • Proceed RTL algorism research with Prof. Huang (Peking University)

  • Proceed Natural Time analysis

  • Proceed cooperation with Keilis-Borok group

  • To solve fundamental problem of EM phenomena related to EQs

    EM signal generation and transmission

  • To proceed LAI (lithosphere-Atmosphere and Ionosphere) coupling study

    -> to merge mechanical process and EM phenomena


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Both Seismic activity and Ionosphere are

really near earth surface matter !


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Preseismic LAI coupling

Kamogawa (2006)


References

References

  • Fraser-Smith et al., Low-frequency magnetic field measurements near the epicenter of the Ms 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 1465-1468, 1990.

  • Nagao et al., Electromagnetic anomalies associated with 1995 KOBE earthquake, J. Geodynamics, 33, 401-411, 2002.

    For Natural Time

  • SARLIS et al., Investigation of seismicity after the initiation of a Seismic Electric Signal activity until the main shock, Proceedings of the Japan Academy, Series B,Vol. 84 , No. 8, 331-343, 2008.

  • Varotsos, The Physics of Seismic Electric Signals, TerraPub, Tokyo, Japan, 338 pp., 2005.

  • Uyeda et al., Analysis of electrical activity and seismicity in the natural time domain for the volcanic-seismic swarm activity in 2000 in the Izu Island region, Japan, JGR, 114, B02310, doi:10.1029/2007JB005332, 2009.

    For LAI coupling

  • Kamogawa, M., Preseismic Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling, EOS, Vol. 87, Num. 40, 417, 424, 2006.


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