The “Impact Pathway Approach” – so called, “ExternE Methodology”
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The “Impact Pathway Approach” – so called, “ExternE Methodology” to Estimate Impacts and External Costs. Application in North Africa Methodology, Limits, Exemplary Results Philipp PREISS IER, Universität Stuttgart. Presentation Outline. Aim of Methodology

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Aim of methodology

The “Impact Pathway Approach” – so called, “ExternE Methodology” to Estimate Impacts and External Costs.Application in North Africa

Methodology, Limits, Exemplary Results

Philipp PREISS

IER, Universität Stuttgart


Aim of methodology

PresentationOutline

  • Aim of Methodology

  • Basic principles - Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1: Quantification of Impacts

  • Impacts Included

  • Basic principles - Impact Pathway Approach – Part 2: Quantification of Costs

  • Assessment of Climate Change

  • Example Results – Uncertainty – Range of Results

  • Applications of the Results

  • Summary


Aim of methodology

Aim of the ExternE methodology:

 helps to take into account all externalities in a consistent way when making decisions

  • Investment decisions

  • Technology Assessment (subsidies, research support)

  • Consumer decisions (e.g. by adjusting prices, by internalisation of external costs)

  • Cost-benefit analyses, esp. for environmental and health regulation

  • Green accounting


Aim of methodology

Basic principles

  • Pressures, (e.g. emissions of substances to environmental media) have to be estimated

  • 2) Assessment of effects/impacts (e.g. health risk), of the pressures (e.g. emissions of pollutants)

  •  relation between pressure and impact is in general not linear and

  •  impacts depend on time and site of pressure

  •  “Bottom-up approach” needed for the complex pathways: the ‘Impact Pathway Approach’ (IPA)


Aim of methodology

Physical Impacts

Pollutant / Noise

Emission

Transport and

Chemical

Transformation

Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1

Differences ofPhysical Impacts

Calculation is made twice: with and without project!


Aim of methodology

Background Concentration of Prim. PM2.5 [µg/m3]

Additional Emission of 1000 t PPM2.5 in Egypt


Aim of methodology

Delta Conc. of PPM2.5 [µg/m3]


Aim of methodology

Population Distribution


Aim of methodology

Population*Delta Conc.  Accumulated Exposure


Aim of methodology

Quantification of Impacts and Costs

relation between pressure and impact

Concentration Response Function (CRF):

Example: Additional Years of Life Lost= 6.5 · 10-5· Dconc. PPM2.5 ·Population

Number of Years of Life Lost [YOLL] due to 1000 ton emission of fine dust PPM2.5 in Egypt

in Egypt = 748

in the Northern Hemisphere = 53

in Western Europe < 0.5


Aim of methodology

YOLL  Years of Life Lost due to 1000 t PPM2.5


Aim of methodology

Impacts Included (I)

: PM2.5, PMco


Aim of methodology

Impacts Included (II)


Aim of methodology

Differences of Physical

Impacts

Pollutant/Noise

Emission

Transport and

Chemical

Transformation

Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1

Calculation is made twice: with and without project!


Aim of methodology

Basic Approach of NEEDS/ExternE

Assessment of impacts is based on the (measured) preferences of the affected and well-informed population


Aim of methodology

Basic principles - Impact Pathway Approach – Part 2: Quantification of Costs

Preferences are expressed, and

effects are transformed into monetary units:

- allows transfer of values, - units are conceivable, - direct use of results in CBA and for internalising via taxes possible.

(…however, e.g. ‘utility points’ would give the same ranking).


Aim of methodology

Differences of Physical

Impacts

Pollutant/Noise

Emission

Transport and

Chemical

Transformation

MonetaryValuation

Impact Pathway Approach – Part 2

Calculation is made twice: with and without project!


Aim of methodology

Monetary Valuation


Aim of methodology

Quantification of Costs

Concentration Response Function:Additional Years of Life Lost= 6.5 · 10-5· Dconc. PPM2.5 · Population

Quantified number of additional Years of Life Lost due to one year operation : 748 YOLL

Monetary value: 40000 Euro2005per Year of Life Lost

Damage costs per year:748 YOLL * 40000 Euro per YOLL = 29.2 Million Euro2005


Valuation methods for non market goods

Valuation methods for non-market goods

Revealed Preference

behaviour (shown in the past)

Stated Preference

surveys

  • Indirect valuation

  • assesses costs or efforts that can be linked to the non-market good

  • Hedonic Price Method

  • Averting Behavior Method

  • Travel Cost Method

  • Contingent Behavior Method

  • Past behaviour of public decision makers

  • Direct valuation

  • Contingent Valuation

  • Method (CVM)

  • Attribute Based Choice

  • Modeling (ABCM)

  • Participatory approaches

  • Surveys for preferences of public decision makers


Aim of methodology

Assessment of Climate Change

I. Marginal Damage Costs

  • Includes the following categories:

  • agriculture

  • forestry

  • sea level rise

  • cardiovascular and respiratory disorders related to cold and heat stress

  • malaria

  • dengue fever

  • schistosomiasis

  • diarrhoea

  • energy consumption

  • water resources and

  • unmanaged ecosystems

  • Time horizon till 2300


Aim of methodology

Assessment of Climate Change

I. Marginal Damage Costs

"Average, 1% trimmed“, "1% PRTP“ , “World Average Equity Weighting”


Aim of methodology

Assessment of Climate Change

II. Marginal Avoidance Costs

"500 ppm CO2 “, “technological progress“ , “certificates-emission dealing”


Aim of methodology

Some exemplary results of applying the ExternE tools EcoSenseWebThe results of the ExternE research are the functions and tools that can be applied to answer individual questions!Results of applying the tools depend on scenario, site, time and technology!


Aim of methodology

  • Possibly important effects that are not (yet) included:

  • Visual intrusion

  • Biodiversity loss (local, however included in Environmental Impact Study)

  • Risk of nuclear proliferation and terrorism

  • Risk aversion resp. treatment of Damocles risks


Quantified external costs euro cent kwh of a coal fired power station steam turbine

Quantified External Costs [Euro-Cent / kWh] of a Coal Fired Power Station (steam turbine)


External costs of different technologies euro cent kwh 19 euro t co2 yoll chronic 40000 euro

External Costs of Different Technologies [Euro-Cent / kWh] 19 Euro/t CO2, YOLLchronic = 40000 Euro

Sites in Germany;

2010 technologies!


Aim of methodology

6

5

4

External Costs [Euro-Cent / kWh]

3

2

1

0

WEC

Hydro

PWR,

PV sc-Si

Natural

ORC-

PAFC

Lignite,

Coal,

Coal PFB

Offshore

reproc

gas-CC

HKW

IGCC

IGCC

Health impacts

Crops

Material

Climate change


External costs of power stations euro cent kwh assuming 50 euro t co2

External Costs of Power Stations [Euro-Cent / kWh]Assuming 50 Euro/t CO2


Aim of methodology

Quantification of Externalities of Heat SupplyCB=condensing boiler, MFH=multi family house, OFM=one family house


External costs euro ton of emission results europe results north africa

External Costs [Euro / ton] of Emission ResultsEurope  ResultsNorth Africa


Aim of methodology

Applications of the IPA/ExternE Results

European Union:

Energy: justification for promoting and subsidizing renewable energy; recommended cap on subsidies for renewables

Transport: cost-benefit analysis mandatory for all major infrastructure projects; planned to levy tolls according to infrastructure and external costs

Environmental Protection: Cost-benefit analysis for all recently implemented directives for Air Pollution Control:

e.g. Non-Hazardeous Waste Incineration Directive, Large Combustion Plant Directive, National Emissions Ceilings Directive, Daughter Directives to Air Quality Directive: ozone, CO and benzene

UN: cost-benefit analysis for the UN/ECE multi-pollutant multi-effect protocol


Aim of methodology

Summary

  • The ExternE methodology estimates effects of technologies for energy conversion and assesses them based on preferences of the effected population for a large number of impact pathways.

  • The methodology is already widely used for decision aid in the fields of energy conversion, transport and environmental protection.

  • Gaps and uncertainties exist, however will be more and more reduced due to ongoing research (e.g. on dispersion models for Africa, pathways involving toxic substances, heavy metals, biodiversity, water and soil contamination…)

  • More information ExternE: www.ExternE.info

  • Tool EcoSenseWeb: www.EcoSenseWeb.ier.uni-stuttgart.de


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