UAW June 30-July 4, 2008 Tokyo, Japan

1. UAWJune 30-July 4, 2008Tokyo, Japan Anthropogenic Heat Release and Global Climate Change Shi Guang-Yu1, Tan Sai-Chun1, Shen Yan-Bo2, Wang Biao1, Wang Bin1, Li Li-Juan1 1. LASG/IAP/CAS 2. NCC/CMA

2. Contents • Background • Model Results • Preliminary Conclusions • Future work

3. Global Warming looks like ‘True’ (IPCC AR4 2007)

4. Since the mid-20th century, it is attributed to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHGs concentrations (IPCC AR4 2007)

5. Two problems haven’t been or have been incompletely included in the current climate models • Anthropogenic Heat Release (AHR) • Climate－Chemistry Feedback

6. 18 Types of Energies8Categories: Fossil Fuels、Nuclear、Solar、Biomass、Hydropower、Wind、Geothermal and Oceanic • COAL (INCLUDING LIGNITE) • CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS • OIL SHALE • NATURAL BITUMEN AND EXTRA-HEAVY OIL • NATURAL GAS • Part I: URANIUM • Part II: NUCLEAR • HYDROPOWER • PEAT • WOOD (INCLUDING CHARCOAL) • BIOMASS (OTHER THAN WOOD) • SOLAR ENERGY • GEOTHERMAL ENERGY • WIND ENERGY • TIDAL ENERGY • WAVE ENERGY • OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION • MARINE CURRENT ENERGY

7. Nature of Energy Use • Inner cycle of the earth system • Wind, tidal energy et al. • Out of the earth system ----- add forcing • John Houghton, Global warming, 1997: Most of the energy we use can be traced back to the sun. • Fossil fuels: release the energy stored away over millions of years in the past • Solar energy use: capture the solar energy that should be reflected back to space • Nuclear energy: release the chemic energy from radioactive elements which were present in the Earth when it was formed. • … The ultimate consequence of the energy use by human is the release of heat into the earth-atmosphere system

8. Anthropogenic Direct Heat Release（Thermal Pollution）

9. Anthropogenic Heat Release (IPCC AR4 2007)

10. A Simple Calculation for 2004 • Annual energy use world wide 10,224.4 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) in 2004 • conversion factor: 1 toe = 42 GJ= 10 034 Mcal • equivalent to 10224.4×106×42×109=4.29×1020 J • global energy consumption per sec: 4.29×1020/(365×86400)=1.36×1013 W • surface area Earth: 5.11×1014 m2 • 1.36×1013 / 5.11×1014 =0.027 W/m2 of global “thermal pollution”.

11. A simple calculation for regions（2004） • China ~12% of global energy consume： 0.027×0.12×5.11e1014/(9.6e1012)≈0.17 W/m2 • U.S. ~24% of global energy consume ： 0.027×0.24×5.11e1014/(9.2e1012)≈ 0.36 W/m2 • Japan ~5% of global energy consume : 0.027×0.05×5.11e1014/ (3.778e1011)≈ 1.83 W/m2 • Korea ~2% of global energy consume : 0.027×0.02×5.11e1014/ (0.99237e1011)≈ 2.78 W/m2 the best estimate of anthropogenic RF (1.6 W/m2)

12. “thermal pollution” should not be neglected in climate modeling for highly populated areas. • Temperature rise cannot be calculated by application of Stefan-Boltzmann law.

13. Contents • Background • Model Results • Preliminary Conclusions • Future work

14. Experiment Introduction Model Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL) developed by Wang et al (2004) and improved by Li (2007) • Resolution: 2.8*2.8 L26 • Top of model: 2.194 hPa • The method of adding AHR • Sensible heat flux (SHF) • Longwave Radition (LW) • Integral time: 1979-1988 10 years

18. 0.05oC

20. How about air temperature we can expected if we added AHR to the model ?? • Control: not add AHR • Experiment: Add 0.027 W/m2 AHR as forced Sensible Heat Flux • Observation: NCEP • Integral time: 1979-1985

21. NCEP Added Sensible Heat Flux Experiment experiment-control Control

22. Experiment - Control Experiment - NCEP Control - NCEP

23. Experiment - Control Experiment - NCEP Control - NCEP

24. If the AHR is 100 times larger than that in 2004, what will happened for temperature??? • 2.7 W/m2

25. Error observation Added Sensible Heat Flux NCEP experiment-control experiment Experiment experiment-NCEP control Control Control-NCEP

26. Experiment - Control Experiment - NCEP Control - NCEP

27. Experiment - Control Experiment - NCEP Control - NCEP

28. Preliminary Conclusions • Global mean temperature was improved by 0.05 oC • Radiative balance at top of model and surface was better than control • Where the larger AHR added, the larger increase in air temperature Seem like that It’s reasonable to take AHR into account in climate model & Air temperature will go to upward with added AHR

29. Future Works • Model for 2050, 2100,…?? • How much temperature will rise once adding AHR?? • How much contribution of AHR to the climate ???

30. A simple and cursory calculation（After 2050） • Basic supposition: • American GDP is 3 times larger than in 2004;and energy consumption is 3 times larger than in 2004 • The Global population :10 Billion • Energy consume per person is equal to Americans • RF of Heat Release in Regions: • U.S.：0.36x3=1.08 W/m2 • China：1.49X3=4.47 W/m2; larger than the RF caused by doubling CO2 3.75! • Due to the imbalanceof economy, RF in east and south of China up to 10 W/m2 !!! • Global：0.027*10*3=0.81W/m2，can be compared with the best estimate of anthropogenic RF(1.6 W/m2)

31. Welcome any suggestions Thank you!