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Presentation of the tools developed (part 1)

Presentation of the tools developed (part 1). Presentation of the tools developed (part 1). Success & failures of forecasting systems -> Emilio GARCIA LADONA , ICM-CSIC. Oil Spill (and SAR) forecasting system. Pollutant (t) = Bio-chem . Transf . + Mech . transport. TOSCA.

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Presentation of the tools developed (part 1)

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  1. Presentation of the tools developed (part 1)

  2. Presentation of the tools developed (part 1) • Success & failures of forecasting systems • -> Emilio GARCIA LADONA, ICM-CSIC

  3. OilSpill (and SAR) forecastingsystem Pollutant (t) = Bio-chem. Transf. + Mech. transport TOSCA Mech. transport = wind + currents + waves + dispersion Whatis a forecastingsystem ? InitialConditions (ObservationalComponent) + Model Toulon, 09/07/2013

  4. Examples MT Haven, 1991, 145.000 t, within Top 10 spills Lebanon spill, 2006 Source: Forecasting the Prestige oil spills, Daniel, et al. Interspill 2004. Toulon, 09/07/2013 from Coppini et al., 2010

  5. Validationactivities • PresentSituation • Improvements in terms of number of ocean and oilspillsmodels • Mediterranean (source MOONGOOS) : • at least 3 global basinmodels and up to 13 highresolution regional models • MOHID, MEDSLIK II, TESEO, GNOME, MOTHY, OILTRANS, SIMPAR, DemWaq… • DREAM (SINTEF), OILMAP (ASA) ….. • TOSCA validationactivities • Test sites experiments (i.e Balearic exp.) • Training activities with SAR services Toulon, 09/07/2013

  6. SST Obs. vs Models 27/10 29/10 SOCIB ESEO 30/10 30/10 27/10 27/10 30/10 IBI 30/10 27/10 Toulon, 09/07/2013

  7. Models SOCIB ESEO • OperationalSystems • ESEOMED • MED-MYOCEAN • IBI-MYOCEAN • SOCIB-IMEDEA • SASEMAR: OILMAP / SARMAP MED-MY IBI Toulon, 09/07/2013

  8. ModelIntercomp: (lagrangian) ESEO IBI-MYOCEAN SOCIB-IMEDEA MED-MYOCEAN Pure advection using an accurate particle tracer algorithm Toulon, 09/07/2013

  9. Training exercises 4 SAR exercises in collaboration with SASEMAR using TOSCA developed drifters Toulon, 09/07/2013

  10. SAR Exercise: Valencia Offshore Montecarlo + HIRLAM (AEMET) + HYCOM Montecarlo + Observed + Observed Toulon, 09/07/2013

  11. Summary • Bothocean and oilspillssystemshavebeenimproved in thepastdecade (i.e. CALPREA, MERSEA, MYOCEAN, ARCOPOL, etc) • Oilspillcodes do notdiffertoomuch in terms of numerics, buttheforecastingskillisstronglydependentontheaccurarcy and representativity of the input/initialfields • Presentoperationalmodelsprovidedsignificantdifferentsolutions • (modelswithhigherresolutionswere more representative of observations) • Observationsimprovedmodelforecast in some cases dramatically. • Forecastimprovementsindoubtellyrequirehavinggoodinitialconditions(observations are crucial!) • Thesituation of presentoperationalproductsclearlyrevealstheneed of furthertests and validation in closecooperationwith SAR agencies. Toulon, 09/07/2013

  12. Thanks for attending TOSCA Final Meeting!

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