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Indonesia Australia South East Queensland

Indonesia Australia South East Queensland. SEQ. Step 1: run CCAM at 200 km resolution globally using SST (bias correction) only from AR4 GCM: GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, ECHAM5, MIROC-medres, UKMO-hadcm3 and CSIRO Mark3.5. (1971-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100)

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Indonesia Australia South East Queensland

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  1. Indonesia • Australia • South East Queensland SEQ

  2. Step 1: run CCAM at 200 km resolution globally using SST (bias correction) only from AR4 GCM: GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, ECHAM5, MIROC-medres, UKMO-hadcm3 and CSIRO Mark3.5. (1971-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100) Step 2: nested CCAM at 20 km resolution over the Indonesia in the CCAM 200 km in Step 1 (1971-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100) .

  3. January and July SST Bias in Mk3.5

  4. Surface height (m)

  5. GFDLCM2.1 : 1971-2000 rainfall (mm/day) DJF MAM JJA SON OBS CCAM GCM

  6. ECHAM5 : 1971-2000 rainfall (mm/day) Surface height DJF MAM JJA SON OBS CCAM GCM

  7. Maximum temperature (C) (1971-2000) Surface height DJF MAM JJA SON OBS CCAM MIROC-Med

  8. Minimum temperature (C) (1971-2000) Surface height DJF MAM JJA SON OBS CCAM MIROC-Med

  9. 850 hPa wind 1971-2000 NCEP CCAM GFDL2.1 ECHAM5

  10. 200 hPa wind 1971-2000 NCEP CCAM GFDL2.1 ECHAM5

  11. GFDLCM2.1: Rainfall change 2050 CCAM GCM 2090 CCAM GCM

  12. 2050 ECHAM5: Rainfall change CCAM GCM 2090 CCAM GCM

  13. CCAM results: Maximum temperature change center 2050 DJF MAM JJA SON ANN GFDL2.1 EACHAM5 UKMO_Hadcm3

  14. CCAM results: Maximum temperature change center 2070 DJF MAM JJA SON ANN GFDL2.1 EACHAM5 UKMO_Hadcm3

  15. CCAM results Minimum temperature change centred 2050 DJF MAM JJA SON ANN GFDL2.1 EACHAM5 UKMO_Hadcm3

  16. CCAM results Minimum temperature change centred 2070 DJF MAM JJA SON ANN GFDL2.1 EACHAM5 UKMO_Hadcm3

  17. CCAM simulation nested in NCEP reanalysis one validation for Australian region

  18. The C72 conformal-cubic grid used for the CCAM simulations

  19. Pattern Corr 0.85 Pattern Corr 0.70

  20. Pattern Corr 0.76 Pattern Corr 0.66

  21. Rainfall extreme (mm/day) Obs CCAM

  22. Interannual variability: ENSO

  23. All-Australia 1982-83 1997-98 1998-99 2000-01

  24. Trend Significant Obs Obs CCAM CCAM

  25. Southeast Queensland

  26. Trend Obs CCAM

  27. Correlation rainfall and UIND (25-30S,160-180E) OBS CCAM

  28. SEQ rain UIND

  29. Rainfall and 850-wind anomaly Strong-UIND Weak- UIND OBS CCAM

  30. 850-mean wind and rain ENSO pattern of 850 hPa wind

  31. Conclusions: SEQ rainfall declined probably is consequence of climate shift around mid-1970s toward El Nino like condition which weakens easterly trades, therefore reduces SEQ rainfall.

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