Assessing the vulnerability of hawaiian native plants and forest birds to climate change
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Assessing the vulnerability of Hawaiian native plants and forest birds to climate change. Overview and preliminary reflections. CC vulnerability assessment. Science magazine 12/2011. Prioritized species lists based on climate change threats. Prioritized climate impacts research.

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Assessing the vulnerability of Hawaiian native plants and forest birds to climate change

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Assessing the vulnerability of Hawaiian native plants and forest birds to climate change

Overview and preliminary reflections


CC vulnerability assessment

Science magazine 12/2011

Prioritized species lists based on climate change threats

Prioritized climate impacts research

Prioritized species lists based on non-climatic threats, bio-cultural values

Assessment of management capacity and

options

Climate Change adaptation planning


Challenges to project ecological impacts of climate change in Pacific Islands

Be robust to fragmented data/ information

Must consider current threats

Large number of target species


Existing tools: Spreadsheet models

Nature serve tool

Rely heavily on expert synthesis

Not coupled with quantitative research and model-derived information

Little consideration of other threats


Bayesian network model approach

  • Increasingly used in ecology/ conservation biology

  • Very intuitive way to define knowledge about particular issue/topic

    • Especially in fields fraught with uncertainty

  • Two underlying aspects:

    • Graphical representation of causal links among factors

    • Underlying probability-based model reflecting ‘strength of influence’ among factors


Example of BN model

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • What are the relevant factors?


Example of BN model

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • What are their ‘typical’ conditions? (i.e., Bayesian priors)


Example of BN model

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • How does the likelihood of having a good coffee cup change with increasing information?


Example of BN model

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • How does the likelihood of having a good coffee cup change with increasing information?


Example of BN model

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • Issue is not as simple!


Example of BN model

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • Issue is not as simple!


Benefits and expected outcomes

  • Intuitive holistic representation of complex response to CC

    • Including non-climatic threats

  • Better integrates knowledge from other relevant efforts (primary research, modeling efforts, expert knowledge, etc.)

    • Can be easily applied to multiple species with diverse sets of information

  • More amenable to data gaps

    • Helps define/ prioritize research gaps

  • Model structure allows for learning with growing CC knowledge


  • LESSONS LEARNED


    VAs must address multiple expectations

    (better, faster, cheaper!)

    • End-users (need relevance/applicability)

      • Not enough to consider general needs and interests

        • If possible, consider how/where/when information taken by end-users

    • Researchers need to be interested (novelty, science merit)


    Dealing with uncertainty

    • Address it head on

      • Pre-assessment discussion with end-users

      • During analysis

      • Interpretation and dissemination

    • Make effort a dynamic process:

      • VA should create a foundation to build on


    VA is not the endpoint!

    • Pathway from VA to climate change adaptation is not straight forward

    • Survey of past vulnerability assessment uses:

      • Follow-through action is essential to utility!

    CC Vulnerability assessment

    Prioritized species lists based on climate change threats

    Prioritized climate impacts research

    Prioritized species lists based on non-climatic threats, bio-cultural values

    Assessment of management capacity and

    options

    Climate Change adaptation planning


    VA is not the only possible first step in CC adaptation planning

    • When should we consider other options?

      • VA primary value as a group learning/ discussion instrument

        • Scenario planning and other adaptation strategy evaluations may be better


    VA is not the only possible first step in CC adaptation planning

    BUT, what is not a valid reason for not doing a VA:

    • “We have a full plate already! We have too many other things to consider!”

      • Win the battle, lose the war

      • No regrets options

      • Likely can’t do it all- prioritization is always critical


    Questions?

    For more information on the PICCC:

    http://www.doi.gov/lcc/index.cfm

    Or contact me directly:

    Lucas Fortini

    [email protected]


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