Assessing the vulnerability of hawaiian native plants and forest birds to climate change
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Assessing the vulnerability of Hawaiian native plants and forest birds to climate change. Overview and preliminary reflections. CC vulnerability assessment. Science magazine 12/2011. Prioritized species lists based on climate change threats. Prioritized climate impacts research.

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Assessing the vulnerability of hawaiian native plants and forest birds to climate change

Assessing the vulnerability of Hawaiian native plants and forest birds to climate change

Overview and preliminary reflections


CC vulnerability assessment forest birds to climate change

Science magazine 12/2011

Prioritized species lists based on climate change threats

Prioritized climate impacts research

Prioritized species lists based on non-climatic threats, bio-cultural values

Assessment of management capacity and

options

Climate Change adaptation planning


Challenges to project ecological impacts of climate change in pacific islands
Challenges to project ecological impacts of climate change in Pacific Islands

Be robust to fragmented data/ information

Must consider current threats

Large number of target species


Existing tools spreadsheet models
Existing tools: Spreadsheet models in Pacific Islands

Nature serve tool

Rely heavily on expert synthesis

Not coupled with quantitative research and model-derived information

Little consideration of other threats


Bayesian network model approach
Bayesian network model approach in Pacific Islands

  • Increasingly used in ecology/ conservation biology

  • Very intuitive way to define knowledge about particular issue/topic

    • Especially in fields fraught with uncertainty

  • Two underlying aspects:

    • Graphical representation of causal links among factors

    • Underlying probability-based model reflecting ‘strength of influence’ among factors


Example of bn model
Example of BN model in Pacific Islands

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • What are the relevant factors?


Example of bn model1
Example of BN model in Pacific Islands

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • What are their ‘typical’ conditions? (i.e., Bayesian priors)


Example of bn model2
Example of BN model in Pacific Islands

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • How does the likelihood of having a good coffee cup change with increasing information?


Example of bn model3
Example of BN model in Pacific Islands

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • How does the likelihood of having a good coffee cup change with increasing information?


Example of bn model4
Example of BN model in Pacific Islands

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • Issue is not as simple!


Example of bn model5
Example of BN model in Pacific Islands

  • How good will be your next cup of coffee at the office?

    • Issue is not as simple!


Benefits and expected outcomes
Benefits and expected outcomes in Pacific Islands

  • Intuitive holistic representation of complex response to CC

    • Including non-climatic threats

  • Better integrates knowledge from other relevant efforts (primary research, modeling efforts, expert knowledge, etc.)

    • Can be easily applied to multiple species with diverse sets of information

  • More amenable to data gaps

    • Helps define/ prioritize research gaps

  • Model structure allows for learning with growing CC knowledge


  • Lessons learned
    LESSONS LEARNED in Pacific Islands


    Vas must address multiple expectations
    VAs must address multiple expectations in Pacific Islands

    (better, faster, cheaper!)

    • End-users (need relevance/applicability)

      • Not enough to consider general needs and interests

        • If possible, consider how/where/when information taken by end-users

    • Researchers need to be interested (novelty, science merit)


    Dealing with uncertainty
    Dealing with uncertainty in Pacific Islands

    • Address it head on

      • Pre-assessment discussion with end-users

      • During analysis

      • Interpretation and dissemination

    • Make effort a dynamic process:

      • VA should create a foundation to build on


    Va is not the endpoint
    VA is not the endpoint! in Pacific Islands

    • Pathway from VA to climate change adaptation is not straight forward

    • Survey of past vulnerability assessment uses:

      • Follow-through action is essential to utility!

    CC Vulnerability assessment

    Prioritized species lists based on climate change threats

    Prioritized climate impacts research

    Prioritized species lists based on non-climatic threats, bio-cultural values

    Assessment of management capacity and

    options

    Climate Change adaptation planning


    Va is not the only possible first step in cc adaptation planning
    VA is in Pacific Islandsnot the only possible first step in CC adaptation planning

    • When should we consider other options?

      • VA primary value as a group learning/ discussion instrument

        • Scenario planning and other adaptation strategy evaluations may be better


    Va is not the only possible first step in cc adaptation planning1
    VA is in Pacific Islandsnot the only possible first step in CC adaptation planning

    BUT, what is not a valid reason for not doing a VA:

    • “We have a full plate already! We have too many other things to consider!”

      • Win the battle, lose the war

      • No regrets options

      • Likely can’t do it all- prioritization is always critical


    Questions? in Pacific Islands

    For more information on the PICCC:

    http://www.doi.gov/lcc/index.cfm

    Or contact me directly:

    Lucas Fortini

    [email protected]


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