Anticipating changing skill needs in the UK R.A.Wilson and R.M Lindley*

1. Anticipating changing skill needs in the UKR.A.Wilson and R.M Lindley* CEDEFOP/FAS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE on ‘Systems, Institutional Frameworks and Processes for Early identification of Skill Needs’, Dublin, 25-26 November 2004 Contact details: Institute for Employment ResearchUniversity of WarwickCOVENTRY, CV4 7ALR.A.Wilson@warwick.ac.ukTel: +44 2476-523530

2. Anticipating skill needs in the UK • Needs and roles of different actors • The changing institutional framework • Methods & approaches: strengths & weaknesses • Overview of UK work • Projections & institutions: role of the State • Conclusions: priorities for policy & research

3. Information needs,Institutional frameworks and Statistical infrastructure Changing Institutional frameworks Different users; different needs Statistical infrastructure What is done; How it is done

4. Who needs what? • Different needs of key audiences: • Government/Policy makers: • beyond manpower planning • increasing Regional & local involvement • Education and training providers (plus quasi governmental bodies, including regulatory & awarding institutions): • need for useful signals • Employers – sectoral perspectives: • need to get employers views but how? • Individuals/Households/Career Guidance/Unions (worker representatives, etc): • career choices

5. The importance of the institutional and legal framework • Cultural, historical and institutional contexts - real differences in: • Education, training & skill formation • Anticipation of future needs • Some differences are related to data availability – • “Statistical infrastructure”

6. The changing UK institutional & legal context: increasing emphasis on skills • The role of national Government: • Department for Education and Skills (DfES), and many others departments) • Devolution & Regional Development Agencies • Education & training providers: • Colleges, Universities, QCA (NVQs, etc) • Training and Enterprise Councils (TECs) >> • (Local) Learning and Skills Councils (LLSCs) • Employers & their representatives: • Industry Training Boards/Industry Training Organisations (ITBs>>ITOs)>> • Sector Skills Councils (SSCs) • Sector Skills Development Agency (SSDA) • Careers guidance companies>> Connexions

7. Involvement of social partners • Different levels of involvement & impact • National level (TUC/CBI & Government interaction) • Generally indirect (via representation on committees organised by government) • Sectoral Level (NTOs, SSDA, SSCs) • Regional & Local Level • Establishment/ Company level

8. Methods and approaches to anticipating changing skill needs • Quantitative methods • Ask employers?: use of surveys • Quantitative (Econometric) Models • National forecasts • Regional / local • Sectoral • More qualitative approaches • Sectoral studies/observatories • Scenario development

9. Pros and Cons of alternative approaches to anticipating skill needs • Disadvantages • May be very subjective • Inconsistent • Myopic • Can too easily focus on the margins • Data hungry • Costly • Not everything is quantifiable • Impression of precision • Inconsistent across sectors • Partial • Inconsistency • Non-systematic • Can be inconsistent • Can be subjective • Advantages • Direct “user/ customer” involvement • Comprehensive • Consistent • Transparent • Quantitative • Strong on sectoral specifics • Holistic • Direct user involvement Approach • Surveys of employers, etc, asking about skill deficiencies & skill gaps • Formal, national level, quantitative, model based projections • Ad hoc sectoral or occupational studies (using quantitative (model based) and qualitative tools) • Focus groups/round tables and other Delphi style methods

10. Statistical infrastructure for quantitative forecasting • Link between data available & methods used • Technological advances: data availability & processing power • Huge increase in ability to handle & process data • Improvements in data availability & accessibility Significant investments in methodological advances • Improvements in techniques and understanding • But too much emphasis on micro data? • Key requirements for quantitative modelling: • National accounts (macro/sectoral models) • Time series on employment by sectors • Information on occupational and qualification structure within sectors (SIC & SOC)

11. Anticipating skill needs in the UK: an overview • Pioneering efforts: • Britains Medium-term Employment Prospects / Economic change and Employment Policy • use of Multi-sectoral macro models & econometric techniques • Projections of Occupations and Qualifications • Working Futures: most detailed projections ever in the UK • National Employer Skills Surveys: great detail but the right priorities?

12. Evaluation & assessment • Accuracy in social science forecasting: a chimera? • Usefulness is the key criterion? • Revealed preference: continued government support • LMI as a public good: ambivalent attitude of successive UK governments • But support in UK not at the same levels as in some countries

13. Projections and Institutions: the role of the State • General Central government ambivalence • arms length treatment of modelling generally & forecasting in particular • use of ad hoc studies • lack of central scrutiny of modelling work • continuous change >> loss of corporate memory • lack of recognition of arguments for public provision of LMI based on economics of information and market failure • Education, training and employment: an acute case?

14. Increased local/regional & sectoral focus • Local/regional • Devolution: Local delivery (TECs, LLSCs, RDAs, devolved Parliaments, Assemblies) • Improved access to local data & increased computing power • Local Economy Forecasting • Sectoral • Industry Training Boards (ITBs)>>National Training Organisations (NTOs)>>Sector Skills Development Agency (SSDA) & Sector Skills Councils (SSCs) • Sectoral model building (CITB/EITB) • Other sectors: more qualitative approaches • Relevance of Standard Systems of Classification? • Detail for detail’s sake? Need to recognise generic nature of many issues

15. Need for Technocratic Dialogue • Presenting or tabling for expert scrutiny • Different audiences, e.g.: • those with macro-economic expertise • sectoral specialists - product/labour markets • VET specialists in particular sectors • those concerned with particular occupational areas • those focusing on regional and/or local labour markets • Value of alternative approaches: • qualitative & quantitative • Exploring coherent alternative stories • Need for new frameworks to facilitate dialogue • Value of Dialogue as reflective practice

16. Conclusions • Importance of institutional frameworks • Importance of statistical infrastructure: but still not ideally tailored to meet real needs? • Need for a range of approaches – benefits of dialogue • Need to develop new frameworks to facilitate dialogue • New opportunities offered by technological innovations • New priorities for research & primary data collection, but need to focus on core skill needs not just at the margins

17. Further information • Department for Educations ands Skills /Skillsbase (Projections of Occupations & Qualifications): http://skillsbase.dfes.gov.uk/ • Learning & Skills Council (National Employers Skills Survey):http://www.lsc.gov.uk/National/default.htm • Sector Skills Development Agency (Working Futures): http://www.ssda.org.uk/ • National Guidance Research Forum: http://www.guidance-research.org/ • Warwick Institute for Employment Research (Publications): http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ier/