降雨誘發廣域山崩模型之力學參數逆分析實際案例
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降雨誘發廣域山崩模型之力學參數逆分析實際案例. 報告者:陳麒任 指導教授:董家鈞. Introduction. Classification of landslide assessment: Qualitative analysis Empirical method Quantitative analysis Statistic method Discriminant analysis Logistic regression Conditional Probability Approach Artificial intelligence Fuzzy Theory

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降雨誘發廣域山崩模型之力學參數逆分析實際案例

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降雨誘發廣域山崩模型之力學參數逆分析實際案例

報告者:陳麒任

指導教授:董家鈞


Introduction

Introduction

Classification of landslide assessment:

  • Qualitative analysis

    • Empirical method

  • Quantitative analysis

    • Statistic method

      • Discriminant analysis

      • Logistic regression

      • Conditional Probability Approach

    • Artificial intelligence

      • Fuzzy Theory

      • neural network

    • Deterministic analysis

      • Infinite –slope stability analysis


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Deterministic analysis of rain fall-induced landslides

Cohesion

Lab test

Lab test

Back calculate

Friction angle

Back analysis of strength has advantages over lab testing in that the scale is much larger. (Gilbert ,1998)

hydraulic conductivity

Deterministic analysis

hydraulic conductivity

Soil depth

Soil depth

DEM

DEM

unit weight of soil

unit weight of soil

Slope

Slope

Deterministic analysis

Predicted landslide inventory

Parameters

In situ test or Empirical methods

In situ test or Empirical methods

Rainfall intensity

Rainfall intensity

Godt et al. (2008)

Remote sensing

Remote sensing

Observed landslide inventory


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Efficiency: (+)/(+++)

Sensitivity: /(+)

Specificity: /(+)

Observed

Predicted

Confusion matrix

Cohesion =1 to 50 kPa

Friction angle=1 ° to 50 °

Deterministic analysis

trial and error

Predicted landslide inventory

Observed landslide inventory


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ROC

Criterion

Sensitivity: /(+)

Maximum Efficiency(林衍丞,2009) 。

Maximum AUC (林衍丞,2009) 。

Efficiency greater than 80%, Sensitivity greater than 60% and Specificity greater than 90%(中興工程顧問社,2004)。

FS=1

FS=1.5

FS=0.5

Sensitivity

Maximum Develop Sensitivity

Maximum the average of Efficiency, Sensitivity and Specificity

林衍承(2009)

Specificity


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100%

Observed

Predicted

Observed

Predicted


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Minimum distance between the corner(1,1,1) and the plane.


Objective

Objective

Compare results of each criterion

Back calculate the parameters (friction angle and cohesion)


Rainfall induced landslide model

Rainfall-induced landslide model

  • This research use TRIGRS, a Fortran program developed by USGS.

    The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability.

  • Parameters: precipitation intensity, slope, soil depth, initial water-table depth, saturated vertical hydraulic conductivity, hydraulic diffusivity, cohesion for effective stress, angle of internal friction for effective stress, total unit weight of soil.


Theoretical basis

Theoretical Basis

  • Infinite-slope stability

    • Landslide with planar failure surfaces.

    • Slide depth is much smaller than length and width.

      where c’ is soil cohesion for effective stress, Φ’ is the soil friction angle for effective stress, γw is unit weight of groundwater, and γs is soil unit weight, β is slope angle, ψ is pressure head.


Transient vertical groundwater

Transient vertical groundwater

Richards equation coordinate system

One-dimensional form

(linear diffusion equation)

(initial condition)

(boundary condition)


Combined iverson 2000 and savage et al 2003

Combined Iverson(2000) and Savage et al.(2003).


Flow chart

Flow Chart

Cohesion=1,50

Friction angle=1,50

Observed landslide inventory

Criterion

Sensitivity

Efficiency

Specificity

Predicted landslide inventory

Cohesion

Friction angle

TRIGRS

Parameter

Discussion


Study area

Study Area


Input data

Input Data

Slope

Soil depth


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Input parameters

Storm event

Iverson (2000)、吳佳郡(2006) 、中興工程顧問公司(2004) 、Paolo (2001)和Lancaster (2002)

2001/7/29 ~ 2001/7/30


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Result of maximum AUC criterion

Five largest AUC parameters

Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 1467. It’s hard to distinguish the most suitable parameter.


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Landslide inventory

Five largest Efficiency parameters

Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 489.

Cohesion=47 kPa Friction angle=39 degree


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Efficiency greater than 80%, Sensitivity greater than 60% and Specificity greater than 90%

Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 18


Develop sensitivity criterion

Develop Sensitivity criterion

Five largest Develop Sensitivity parameters

Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 7


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Cohesion=23kPa Friction angle=32degree


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The average of Efficiency, Sensitivity and Specificity criterion

Five largest value parameters

Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 77.


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Cohesion=20kPa Friction angle=29degree


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Minimum distance between the (1,1,1) and the plane

Five largest value parameters

Parameter number of maximum value within 1% is 6.


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C: Efficiency greater than 80%, Sensitivity greater than 60%

and Specificity greater than 90%

D: Develop Sensitivity

E: Average of Efficiency, Sensitivity and Specificity

F: Minimum distance between the corner and the plane


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C: Efficiency greater than 80%, Sensitivity greater than 60%

and Specificity greater than 90%

D: Develop Sensitivity

E: Average of Efficiency, Sensitivity and Specificity

F: Minimum distance between the corner and the plane


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C: Efficiency greater than 80%, Sensitivity greater than 60%

and Specificity greater than 90%

D: Develop Sensitivity

E: Average of Efficiency, Sensitivity and Specificity

F: Minimum distance between the corner and the plane


Future work

Future work

Using Bayesian inference to calculate the probability of parameters.


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Thanks for your attention


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