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Providing real estate valuation, consulting, and due diligence services to: Individuals Lenders Corporations And thei

Providing real estate valuation, consulting, and due diligence services to: Individuals Lenders Corporations And their tax and legal advisors. Objective. Highlight trends in this market place Identify areas of risk and opportunity Bring strategic awareness to Market participants

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Providing real estate valuation, consulting, and due diligence services to: Individuals Lenders Corporations And thei

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  1. Providing real estate valuation, consulting, and due diligence services to: • Individuals • Lenders • Corporations • And their tax and legal advisors

  2. Objective • Highlight trends in this market place • Identify areas of risk and opportunity • Bring strategic awareness to • Market participants • Municipal leaders

  3. Market Drivers • Office markets are driven by jobs • “Jobs” are changing • Cost reduction / Technology • Education • Legal/Tax structure • Society

  4. Definitions • Large Floor Plate User – Corp. tenants over 15,000 SF in market • Public • Space needs decision not made here • Small Floor Plate User < 5,000 SF • Private Companies • Professional • Owner Lives Here

  5. Survey Parameters • Class A & B Office with GBA > 5,000 SF • Locations – various logical office markets • Greenwich • Stamford • Norwalk • Westport/Fairfield • Trumbull/Shelton • Danbury LMA

  6. What we will look at • Brief history – How we got here • Where the jobs are locating currently • Impact of job growth on this office market • Emerging Trends • Opportunity Index – graphical representation of risk

  7. Fairfield County- Historically Square Footage Additions

  8. Historical Space Additions • Large floor plate buildings added in SF • 1980’s - 25,000,000 • 1990’s - 9,000,000 • 2000’s - 5,000,000 • Total - 39,000,000

  9. Fairfield County- Historically Persistently High Vacancy Rates Since 2001

  10. Big Picture Dynamic Job Market • Information based jobs are now going to the lowest cost provider • Higher end jobs are filling in the space – just not filling in enough space • Will there be enough jobs to fill the space?

  11. Trailing 12 Months • Strong leasing of 2.5 million SF • Offset by downsizing, relocations, new space • Purdue Pharma’s OxyContin issue results in 300,000 SF giveback • International Paper’s relocation down south dumps 120,000 SF • 901 Merritt coming on line with 375,000 SF • 18% increase in smaller deals (10k-20k SF) • Musical Chairs • Investment sales are hot

  12. Jobs • Who is going to occupy the current and projected future vacant space? • Leaner, more educated workforce • Where will those jobs be located? • In smaller floor plate buildings

  13. Lease Transactions by Locale

  14. Lease Transactions by SF Group

  15. Average SF Leased by Locale

  16. Median SF Leased by Locale

  17. By Building Age50,000 SF and Greater 145 Buildings 78 Buildings

  18. Fairfield County Overall Vacancy Rates 293 Buildings 919 Buildings

  19. Fairfield County Pipeline • Approximately 5.2 million square feet of office space have a reasonable expectation of coming online over the next 10 years.

  20. Fairfield County Pipeline 5.2 Million SF Total

  21. Periodic County Employment Growth43,000 New Jobs Added 15,000 Jobs 7,000 Jobs 7,000 Jobs

  22. Forecasted County Vacancy Rates Market Equilibrium 2012 Now add the proposed space additions in: Norwalk & Fairfield

  23. Forecasted County Vacancy Rates Market Equilibrium - 2015 Now add the proposed space additions in: Norwalk, Fairfield & Stamford

  24. Forecasted County Vacancy Rates Market Equilibrium Not Achieved Now add the proposed space additions in: All Fairfield County

  25. Alternative Workplace Strategies • Historical Average of 195 per person • What happens at 150 SF and 125 SF • Why – reduced costs and lower space needs per employee

  26. Effects of AWS Assuming all pipeline additions

  27. Opportunity Index • Numbers represent partial anticipated new space online in the next 10 years • Green – Vacancy lower than 12% with a down trend • Yellow – Vacancy 12% - 15% with up trend • Red – Vacancy greater than 15% with up trend

  28. For a copy of the Opportunity Index, or more information www.AustinMcGuire.com See client section

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