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REGIONS IN THE ONE - GENERATION - AHEAD PERSPECTIVE MOSTLY POLISH REGIONS AND POLISH PERSPECTIVE

REGIONS IN THE ONE - GENERATION - AHEAD PERSPECTIVE MOSTLY POLISH REGIONS AND POLISH PERSPECTIVE. Roman Galar Wroclaw University of Technology rbg @ kn .pl. The O ne -G eneration S cope of C hange in Europe.

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REGIONS IN THE ONE - GENERATION - AHEAD PERSPECTIVE MOSTLY POLISH REGIONS AND POLISH PERSPECTIVE

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  1. REGIONS IN THE ONE-GENERATION-AHEAD PERSPECTIVEMOSTLY POLISH REGIONS AND POLISH PERSPECTIVE Roman GalarWroclaw University of Technologyrbg@kn.pl

  2. The One-Generation Scope of Changein Europe • From peaceful and affluent “Europe Felix” of 1900sto Great Crisis of 1930s (WWI, fall of empires, rebirth of states, revolution) • From awesome technological and social progress of „swinging” 1920s to the bipolar world of 1950s (totalitarian monsters and mind-boggling cruelties) • From the great wave of unstoppable progress culminating in 1960s to relative inertia (no Moon bases, clean energy, cancer cure, stagnating lifespan) • From great concerns about “uncontrollable population explosion” in 1970sto realization that the “individual success” model societies are dying out • From the general indifference of 1970 (the buds of Internet and PCs already in)to overwhelming excitement about information technologies • From anxiety about the Soviet Union might and total disregard of China in 1980sto Soviet Union being a bad dream, and China on the way to a global dominance Were they predictable? The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  3. APost-Keynesian Perspectivein which we are long dead and our comforts and ambitions matter not longer • Humbling experiences with predicting one-generation-ahead changes, lack of changes, and changes of mind • No evidence that our generation is in a better cognitive shape (millennium virus, real estate, globalization) • Learning on experiences • The necessity to think and act ahead of optimism • Moving against prevailing public attitudes • Focusing on education of successors and their heritage. • Breaking away from the limbo between past and future The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  4. The modern mindsetdrifting on the shallows of modernity witouta compass (stolen by post-modernism) • The extent of naïvety that rules the modern minds • the enthusiasm that greeted Fukuyama’s declarations of the “end of history” • Contemporarians show similar contempt for the past, as for the future • the past immaterial, as detached from modern comforts, mores and problems • the future should bring more of the same: comfort, fun, internet; epidemics and wars as little expected, as the life redefining innovations • A complacent present predicted by Ortega y Gasset • no gratitude toward past that have created the comforts we enjoy • no respect toward future that might expand these comforts or annihilate them • Prevailing attitudes • among the „in” societies: setting new trends (new is better because it’s new) • among the „out” societies: Cult of Cargo (copying appearances not substance) The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  5. Conceptual Toolbox of “future-menders”possibilities of preemptive corrections • Voluntarism. Hubris and the need for caution • the wish fulfilling nature • the new frontiers fallacy • foretelling, predicting, forecasting, delphing and foresighting services • spinning optimism – sedative handouts • Statistical Phenomenology. The mild magic • extrapolations of trends • developmental cycles and other artifacts • turning points and path dependencies – developmental narratives • Experimentation. Cultural impact • knowledge management • experimental economy • The evolutionary approach. Deadly misunderstandings • explanatory potential of minimal models • regularizing the irregular part of development • head-on collisions with popular clichés The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  6. Western Civilization at Crossroads • Adapting people to the modern world? • Adapting the modern world to people? • Stabilizing the industrial revolution response: Socialism, Liberalism, Confucianism, Christianity? • Impossibility to break away from limitations of the hunter-gatherers brains • Impossibility to escape Black Swans in the globalized world (unpredictable unexpected) • Regions as Mediocristanic safe heavens? The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  7. The Approaching “Black Swans”A selection • Catastrophic climatic changes due to the global warmingstill arguable if real; impossible to say when; possibly very fast • Global financial crisisW. B.'s advice: stay away from businesses that you do not understand. Another round of economic poker. The communist heart of capitalism • Bloody conflicts as the last recourses of loserscapacity for instability: consumers not ready to die for any common cause • Sudden demise of the Western advantageidea to outsource arduous efforts and live on intellectual property misfires • Rejection of the individual success modelgenes of people that prefer family to career propagate better • Possible failure of the European homeostat Accumulation of strains and rising costs of the EU comfort providing system.Abilities to name and solve problems limited by PC.Brezhniev’s syndrom The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  8. The “Black Swan” perspectiveN.N. Taleb, The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2007 • Thinking about future burdened by many doubtful clichés • Proud illusions of Enlightenment: the “men controlling their destiny” and “computing the future assuming knowing enough” stuff • Our atavistic minds are poorly equipped to deal with complexity and randomness that pervade the modern environment; e.g. • How even the fully predictable future dissolves due to the accumulation of errors • How specialization restricts thinking to the inside of the model • How bad we are in assessing the real life chances • How unreliable is the risk management expert knowledge • The central distinction between “Mediocristan” and “Extremistan” • Mediocristan: traditional, limited environment that our brains are able to grasp • Extremistan: modern, all-inclusive environment, with complexities beyond comprehension • The main feature of Extremistan: scalability of human achievements debilitating effect “the winner takes all” (death of competition) The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  9. Collapse of Potlatch? • Two anthropological modes of existence abundance or scarcity of resources • Responsible, self-limiting existence caring about people in the space-time vicinity • Living to impress the othersthe lowest form of human interaction • The best scenario for the one-generation futureSharing resources with four times as many people • Entering the sphere of leisure, culture and freedom The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  10. The multiple facets of regions • Regions as generators of cultural „standing waves”impressive stability and vitality due to cultural identity; human scale • Regions as feudal fiefsallegiance, loyalty, ingrained subsidiarity and accumulation of wealth • Regions as basins of attraction the leading city plus its zone of influence; an uneasy equilibrium • Regions as corporationsconfusing analogies; unreliable partnership: good times better, bad times worse • Regions as platforms of creative cooperation the right setup for innovative cultures: size, density, competences, specificity • Regions as elements of hierarchic governance overcoming limits of information transfer, processing power and ruler’s presence • Regions as units of experimental policy the state-region conflict fallacy; adaptive prowess of well balanced systems of regions • Regions as Black Swans’ trapsbringing problems down to the Mediocristan scale The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  11. Will regionscontinue to exist? • Destabilizing impact of networking • ICTs • logistic • The approaching demise of hard factors • administration • services • competences • The growing prominence of soft factors • sentimental • cultural • adaptive The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  12. Regional Policy in the EU’s Poland • Institutional and real-politic dimension • Regional self-governance: still a dummy; the rule: what is not explicitly allowed is prohibited • State policy: regions as vehicles providing access to resources distributed by EC; not eager to lose control • EU policy: bypassing nation states to promote EU priorities, building euro-elites • Civic and potential dimension • concerns about well rooted communities of circa a million or few at some consistent territory • cultural and sentimental issues, based on biological and anthropological invariants • do such communities really exist, do they matter and are they viable enough to survive? If the real politic dominates the self-governing regions will be transitory beings The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  13. Some Delusions of Polish Regions Joining the leadersA hope, reminding of sportsOut of trajectory of the maximal probability As long, as the regional progress remains imitative Getting rich on the EU moneyExpectations out of proportions Focusing on external 4% and neglecting internal 94% Becoming a “tiger”Trumpeted example of Ireland Less publicized example of Finland Hidden example of Brandenburg The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  14. The Range of Choices • Future adverse regionsprocedures & political correctness as stabilizers • Future ignoring regionsconcentration on modernization by imitation • Future building regionsplanning and investing ahead of trends • Future ready regions • developing adaptive capacities The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  15. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE The future of regions in the perspective of global change

  16. Topics • On the one-generation scope of changes • The modern feelings about the arrow of time • How can we known about future? • The Black Swan perspective • Good bye to the Western potlatch ? • Multiple facets of regions • Polish input • The range of choices The future of regions in the perspective of global change

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