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FAO. CGIAR. WMO. GECAFS Vision. A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress. Fundamental Questions. How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions?

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FAO

CGIAR

WMO


GECAFS Vision

A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress.


Fundamental Questions

  • How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions?

  • How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security?

  • What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?


Key Terms

Global Environmental Change

changes in the biogeophysical environment

Food Systems

an interconnected set of processes and activities

Food Security

a state or condition underpinned by food systems


Global Environmental Change

Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influencedby human activities

For example changes in:

Land cover & soils

Atmospheric composition

Climate variability & means

Water availability & quality

Nitrogen availability & cycling

Biodiversity

Sea currents & salinity

Sea level


Global Environmental Change

Examples of human activities leading to GEC:

Agricultural intensification

Freshwater extraction

Fisheries overexploitation

Waste production

Deforestation

Fossil fuel consumption

Urbanisation

Land reclamation


Components of Food Systems

& Key Elements

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD

ACCESS

  • Affordability

  • Allocation

  • Preference

  • Nutritional Value

  • Social Value

  • Food Safety

FOOD

AVAILABILITY

  • Production

  • Distribution

  • Exchange


Food security
Food Security

  • exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

    (definition from the World Food Summit)

  • emphasizes access for individuals, households, communities to food.


GECAFS Goal

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of GEC on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security.


Achieving the Goal

  • Improve understanding of the interactions between food systems and key socioeconomic and biogeophysical components of the Earth System.

  • Deliver the new science necessary to assist policy formulation for improving food security in the face of GEC.

  • These are to be undertaken simultaneously


Global Environmental Change and Food SystemsResearch

Conditions

&

Scenarios

Vulnerability & Impacts

Feedbacks

Decision

Support

Current

Food Systems

Adapted

Food Systems

Adaptation


Research Approaches

  • 1. Conceptual & Methodological Research

  • Food Systems Concepts

  • Vulnerability Concepts

  • Scenario Construction

  • Decision Support Systems

  • 2. Food Systems Research in

  • Indo-Gangetic Plain

  • Caribbean

  • Southern Africa


Conceptual & Methodological Research

Developsa GEC science agenda that:

  • targets generic science issues

  • improves understanding of the interactions between the Earth System and Food Systems

  • integrates natural and social sciences

  • adds value to basic science by underpinning applied science

  • underpins regionally-based food systems research

Conditions

&

Scenarios

Vulnerability & Impacts

Feedbacks

Decision

Support

Current

Food Systems

Adapted

Food Systems

Adaptation

  • International networking approach

  • Led by small, specialist committees

  • Coordinated by dedicated Science Officers

  • Specific funding applications, mainly to science agencies


Regional Food Systems Research

Develops a GEC science agenda that:

  • targets regional scientific issues

  • relates to regional development needs

  • interacts effectively with the regional policy making process

  • encourages more support for the regional science communities

  • provides contexts for conceptual research

Conditions

&

Scenarios

Vulnerability & Impacts

Feedbacks

Decision

Support

Current

Food Systems

Adapted

Food Systems

Adaptation

  • Regional studies approach

  • Led by regional scientists assisted by GECAFS IPO

  • Specific funding applications, mainly to development agencies


Caribbean

Indo-Gangetic Plain

Main GEC Issues

Climate variability

& extreme events

Water availability

Land degradation

Sea currents & salinity

Biodiversity loss

Sea level

Predominant Diet Pattern

Mixed, mainly imported (majority)

Roots/tubers & fish (sig. minority)

Key Policy Issues

Food security and self-sufficiency

Trade policies and competitiveness

Exporting quality produce

& processed products

Poverty in rural communities

Main GEC Issues

Climate variability

Glacier and snow melt

Water availability & quality

Nitrogen availability & cycling

GHG emissions

Predominant Diet Pattern

Rice & fish (east IGP)

Wheat/rice & meat (west IGP)

Key Policy Issues

Increased agric. production

Limiting env. degradation

Improved socioecon. conditions

Reduced labour migration

Southern Africa

Main GEC Issues

Climate variability & ENSO

Climate mean values

Water availability & quality

Land degradation

Biodiversity loss

Predominant Diet Pattern

Meat & Maize/Tubers

Mixed (significant minority)

Key Policy Issues

Food security and self-sufficiency

Regional integration and trade

Rural infrastructure and market access

Disaster response and “safety nets”


Research Relevance and Partnerships

Science

Socio-

economic

Natural


Research Relevance and Partnerships

Science Agendas

Development Agendas

Science

Socio-

economic

Natural


Research Relevance and Partnerships

Science Agendas

Development Agendas

Policy Makers

Resource Managers

Science

Socio-

economic

Natural


Food Systems Concepts

Research Questions

  • What parameters describe food systems so as to facilitate GECAFS research?

  • Within given food systems, which parameters are most sensitive to GEC?

  • Who are the agents within each major food system, what are their roles, and how do they interact?


Food Systems Vulnerability

Research Questions

  • What are the dimensions of risk in vulnerable food systems?

  • What are the levels of present risks and how sensitive are they to present trends and future scenarios of vulnerability?

  • How do risks compare among vulnerable populations, between regions and from the local to regional scales?


GECAFS

Southern Africa

initiative


GECAFS Southern Africa

“Issue Identification”Workshop

Development Bank of Southern Africa

Midrand, South Africa

April 2003

Objective

To identify the key issues of concern and information needs for national and regional planning with regard to food provision in the context of Global Environmental Change


GECAFS DBSA Workshop

April 2003

  • Overarching questions identified:

  • What are the vulnerable points in the food systems in Southern Africa?

  • What are the range of options to reduce vulnerability (e.g. productions systems, trade, political)?

  • What factors need to be included in comprehensive scenarios (climate change is one of many factors)?

  • Is information delivered of adequate quality, timeliness and resolution?

  • How can capacity be increased to deliver and translate technical information to improve policy formulation?


GECAFS DBSA Workshop

April 2003

  • Key outputs 1

  • Food security needs to be addressed at both SADC and national levels

  • A significant proportion of the region’s food is “self provided” (especially in rural areas); but intra- and inter-national trade is also important

  • National Food Security relates to satisfying national requirements from domestic production and trade

  • National Self Sufficiency relates to satisfying national requirements from domestic production alone


GECAFS DBSA Workshop

April 2003

  • Key outputs 2

  • Agriculture in SADC is now gearing more towards commercial crops (e.g. tobacco, horticulture), and thus away in part from subsistence crops (e.g. maize, sorghum)

  • Increasing self-sufficiency will require empowering the producer to a greater extent with regard to access to credit, insurance, land rights, etc.

  • Institutional arrangements across the region lead to inconsistencies regarding access to technology and financial instruments.


Activity since DBSA Workshop

  • Follow-up discussions with region’s scientists, resource managers, policy-makers and donors

    • => review of information needs

  • Improved definition of Food Systems research

  • Preparative discussion meeting (UCT, mid-September 2004)


Apr 04

GECAFS SAF “Issue Identification” WS

DBSA

Food Systems

London

Oct 04

SAVI

Cape Town

Oct 04

  • Dec 04

  • Food Systems WS

  • Gaborone

  • Day 1: Food Systems

  • Day 2: Vulnerability of Food Systems aspects

  • Day 3: Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC.

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DSS

Florida

Jan 05

  • Research Questions on Vulnerability of Food Systems and Impacts

  • Proposal for next WS

Scenarios

Dhaka

Mch 05

Mid 05

GECAFS SAF Research Planning WS

Research Questions on Adaptation & Feedbacks

Research Proposal Preparation


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