“Alaska” LCCs Webinar April 1 , 2013 PIs: David McGuire; Co-PI: Scott Rupp;

The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada A collaborative research project for the DOI Alaska Climate Science Center and the Arctic, Western Alaska, Northwest Boreal, and North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperatives “Alaska” LCCs Webinar April 1, 2013 PIs: David McGuire; Co-PI: Scott Rupp; Co-Is: Vladimir Romanovsky, Eugenie Euskirchen, Sergei Marchenko University of Alaska Fairbanks

Research Team Scott Rupp, Co-PI Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning David McGuire, PI Institute of Arctic Biology Vladimir Romanovsky, Co-I Geophysical Institute Eugenie Euskirchen, Co-I Institute of Arctic Biology Sergei Marchenko, Co-I Geophysical Institute

Presentation Outline • What is the IEM Project? • What is the IEM Framework? • What are the Components of the IEM? • Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs • What Types of Products will the IEM generate? • What has the IEM Accomplished to Date? • Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

What is the IEM? The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada is designed to help resource managers understand the nature and expected rate of landscape change in Alaska and Northwest Canada through providing: • A common framework for forecasting landscape change in the region in response to climate- and land cover/use driven changes in vegetation, disturbance, hydrology and permafrost • Production of maps and other products related to landscape changes in ecosystem structure (e.g., composition of shrubs vs. sedges in tundra or conifer vs. deciduous trees in forests) and function (e.g., production of forage used by herbivores) • A quantification of the uncertainty in expected outcomes (e.g., by the consideration of different climate scenarios, different climate models, aspects of uncertainty in the IEM framework) • A team to help in the development of impact models that can use IEM products to address assessments of specific resource management responses to landscape changes • A team to help in conducting climate-change impact assessments that can be used to help identify adaptation and management responses to forecasted landscape-scale changes that are projected to impact the management of natural resources.

What is the IEM? • Spatial Domain:

What is the IEM? The IEM for Alaska and Northwest Canada will provide a support tool to inform: • Response of ecosystems to climate and land cover/use change • Processes that affect species and habitats • Development of impact models • Assessments of natural resource responses • Adaptation and management responses

What is the IEM Framework? • Projected climate changes will create challenges for natural resource management including: • Fish and Wildlife Impacts • Wildlife Diseases and Invasive Species • Protection of Trust Species • Biological Carbon Sequestration • Wildland Fire Impacts • Water Availability and Water Quality • Sea-ice and Glacier Loss • Ecosystem Resilience and Ecosystem Restoration • Changes to Cultural Resource and Subsistence Species (Society Resilence) • Sea-level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge Impacts (Coastal Erosion, Modification of Fish and Wildlife Habitat)

What is the IEM Framework? • Many of the resource management challenges require information on how climate and land cover/use change will impact: • air and soil temperatures • snowfall • rain on snow • ice-free season • growing season • permafrost • stream flow • wildfire • coastal erosion • glaciers

What is the IEM Framework? Hydrology Fire Integrated Ecosystem Model Permafrost Climate Change Vegetation

What is the IEM Framework Habitat Change Animal Performance Fire Management Hypothetical Model Impact Models vegetation productivity Hydrology Fire Integrated Ecosystem Model Permafrost hydrology canopy cover thermokarst vegetation Climate Change fire vegetation Vegetation fire hydrology output x output y

What is the IEM Framework? Stakeholders Habitat Change Animal Performance Fire Management Hypothetical Model Impact Models vegetation productivity Hydrology Fire Integrated Ecosystem Model Permafrost hydrology Conservation & Resource Management Decisions canopy cover thermokarst vegetation Climate Change fire vegetation Vegetation fire hydrology output x output y Communication of Needs

What are the Components of the IEM? Hydrology Fire Permafrost Vegetation Climate

What are the Components of the IEM? Downscaled GCM Data ALFRESCO GIPL-2 Soil Thermal Properties Moss & Organics Fire Severity Soil moisture Burned area Vegetation type Plant Functional Types DOS-DVM-TEM

What are the Components of the IEM? Vegetation

What are the Components of the IEM? Hydrology Fire Integrated Ecosystem Model Permafrost = Climate Change Vegetation

What are the Components of the IEM? Other stakeholder groups Animal Performance Models Habitat Change Models Fire Management Models Hypothetical Model Impact Models vegetation cover biomass productivity Alaska IEM surface hydrology Conservation & Resource Management Decisions canopy cover probability of thermokarst species composition probability of fire vegetation cover probability of fire surface hydrology model output x model output y Communication of Needs

Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs • Spatial Domain:

LCC Coordination Together, Alaska and northwest Canada LCCs can: • Jointly address state- or region-wide information needs • Serve as a forum for learning and information exchange • At multiple levels • Facilitate communication and collaboration • Among agencies/organizations • Across disciplines • Across jurisdictional boundaries • The IEM for Alaska and Northwest Canada and the Alaska Climate Science Center can help with cross LCC coordination.

Common LCC Categories of Activity • Assessing the status of baseline data • Coordinated observations (detecting change) • Understanding relationships (understanding change) • Projecting future states (forecasting change) • Adaptation framework and best management practices (responding to change)

Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs • Projected climate changes will create challenges for natural resource management including (from www.doi.gov/lcc): • Fish and Wildlife Impacts (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM) • Wildlife Diseases and Invasive Species (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM) • Protection of Trust Species (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC) (IEM) • Biological Carbon Sequestration (ALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM) • Wildland Fire Impacts (ALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM) • Water Availability and Water Quality (ALCC, NPLCC) (IEM) • Sea-ice and Glacier Loss (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM?) • Ecosystem Resilience and Ecosystem Restoration (WALCC, NPLCC) (IEM) • Changes to Cultural Resource and Subsistence Species (ALCC, WALCC, NPLCC) (IEM) • Sea-level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge Impacts (Coastal Erosion, Modification of Fish and Wildlife Habitat) (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM) • To address these issues requires the development of impact models that can use outputs from the IEM. The IEM team is ready to work with people developing impact models!

IEM Activities • Development of Historical and Projected Downscaled Climate (1 km resolution) for Driving Model Applications and for Other Uses. • Coupling Together Component Models (Software Engineering Issue) • Forecasting Tundra Fire and Treeline Dynamics • Model Development (2012-2013) • Model Integration and Application (2013-2014) • Impact Model Development and Application (Caribou Animal Performance?; 2014-2016) • Development of Alaska Thermokarst Model • Model Development (2012-2013) • Model Integration and Application (2014-2015) • Impact Model Development and Application (Shorebird Impact Model?; 2015-2016) • Development of Wetland Dynamics Model • Field Studies: Alaska Peatland Experiment (2012 – 2013) • Model Development (2014) • Model Integration and Application (2015-2016) • Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment for Alaska (2013-2014) – Includes Southeast Alaska

IEM Products • Climate • Historical and projected climate data for several scenarios of climate change and for several climate models (available) • Soil Properties • Permafrost distribution, active layer thickness (2013, with updates) • Disturbance • Historical and projected area burned (historical available, projected 2013) • Susceptibility to thermokarst (2013) • Thermokarst disturbance scenarios and landscape change (2014) • Landcover and Vegetation • Projected treeline (2013, updates) • Future distribution of vegetation types (2013, updates) • Ecosystem Dynamics • Carbon fluxes, net primary productivity (2013, updates)

IEM Accomplishments and Activities to Date • Development of Historical and Projected Downscaled Climate (1 km resolution) for Driving Model Applications and for Other Uses. • http://www.snap.uaf.edu/data.php • Coupling Together Component Models (Software Engineering Issue) • ALFRESCO and DOS-DVM-TEM are currently exchanging data each time step, next step is to exchange data with GIPL2 • Forecasting Tundra Fire and Treeline Dynamics • Model development largely completed in 2012, model calibration and testing are currently occurring, plan is for first model application to be completed by July 2013 • Development of Alaska Thermokarst Model • Developed a conceptual approach to model development in 2012 (produced a white paper) • Currently developing the code for the model according to a schedule for completion by end of 2013 • Development of Wetland Dynamics Model • Field Studies: Alaska Peatland Experiment (2012 – 2013) • Developed Peatland DOS-TEM for boreal fen application in 2011-2012 • Development of Peatland DOS-TEM for boreal bog application in 2013 • Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment for Alaska (2013-2014) • Working on Calibrations, model application to be completed in 2013

Acknowledgements • Research ScientistsResearch Associates • Mark Waldrop Bob Bolton • Postdoctoral FellowsGraduate Students • Kirsten Barrett Tobey Carman • Amy BreenWinslow Hansen • Zhaosheng Fan ElchinJafarov • Helene Genet Technical Staff • Reginald Muskett Alec Bennett • Fengming Yuan Tom Kurkowski • Yujin Zhang Dustin Rice • Stephanie McAfee Michael Lindgren • DOI Alaska Climate Science Center • Arctic, Western Alaska, Northwest Boreal, • and North Pacific LCCs

Where can you learn more about the IEM? • Further information is available at http://www.snap.uaf.edu/project_page.php?projectid=15 • and • http://arcticlcc.org/projects/landscape/integrated-ecosystem-model-iem-for-alaska/ • and soon at a new location on the Alaska Climate Science Center web site. • Or contact Dave McGuire (admcguire@alaska.edu; 907-474-6242), Scott Rupp (tsrupp@alaska.edu; 907-474-7535), or Amy Breen (albreen@alaska.edu; 907-474-6927) • Questions?

“Alaska” LCCs Webinar April 1 , 2013 PIs: David McGuire; Co-PI: Scott Rupp;