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Brian Enke Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO Author: Shadows of Medusa

SPACEFLIGHT The Next 50 Years. Brian Enke Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO Author: Shadows of Medusa. The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented. - Dennis Gabor (1971 Nobel Prize winner, Physics). SPACEFLIGHT ???. Why?

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Brian Enke Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO Author: Shadows of Medusa

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  1. SPACEFLIGHT The Next 50 Years • Brian Enke • Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO • Author: Shadows of Medusa

  2. The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented. - Dennis Gabor (1971 Nobel Prize winner, Physics)

  3. SPACEFLIGHT ??? • Why? • Where? • How? • When? • Who?

  4. WHY ??? Many Reasons...

  5. MINERAL MINING NASA

  6. LIVING SPACE, HABITATS SSI NASA SSI

  7. SSI

  8. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

  9. THREAT MITIGATION

  10. Other Reasons • Business profit • Science • Exploration • Political Freedom • Religious Freedom • Entertainment • Challenge/adventure • Media • Etc, etc, etc... US Postal Service

  11. WHERE ??? Many Destinations...

  12. Brian's Top 30 Destinations Ceres Main Belt Comets NEAs Earth Moon Mars 15 LaGrange points 8 orbits

  13. Destination: Earth • Well, DUH!

  14. Destination: Moon • 3 day trip • No atmosphere • Low gravity (16%) • Minerals: Some...? • Energy: Rich!! (helium-3, solar power) • CHONS: Very Poor Ouch!

  15. CHONS: Carbon, Hydrogen, Oxygen, Nitrogen, Sulfur

  16. Opportunity: Lunar Settlement • Underground habs • Expensive goods (suppliers will profit) • Golden feces • Spartan lifestyle • Energy-intensive industry, mining

  17. Opportunity:Mining Lunar Helium-3 • Deposited by Sun • 200M tons -> 1 ton • New strip-mining techniques needed • Energy-intensive • Enough energy for 100 to 1000 years?

  18. Opportunity:Sun-Towers • Lunar solar power • Beam energy to Earth • Long outages • Tall – no atmosphere Nanotech, painted collectors: 60% efficiency (2x)

  19. Destination: Mars • 4 to 9 month trip • Thin CO2 atmosphere • Modest gravity (38%) • Minerals: Rich? • Energy: Some... • CHONS: Very Rich!! NASA and the US Geological Survey

  20. Opportunity:Martian Settlement • Landmass == Earth • Stunning terrain, vistas • Surface habitats • Cheap goods, food • Earthly lifestyles • Service economy NASA and the US Geological Survey

  21. Opportunity:Martian In-Situ Resources • Plastics • Rocket fuel • Plants, crops • Bricks • Thermal turbines • Hydrogen economy

  22. Destination: Asteroids (Ceres, Main Belt, Comets, NEAs) • Variable travel times (long) • More than a million over one km in diameter • Minerals: Very Rich!! • Energy: Rich (helium-3) • CHONS: Rich

  23. * Assumes 5 billion people, and 1997 prices. Total is over $100 billion/person. ** Gold, silver, copper, manganese, titanium, rare-earth elements, uranium, etc Source: “Mining the Sky,” Dr. John S. Lewis, 1997

  24. Destination: 8 Orbits Earth, Moon, Mars Ceres, Main Belt, Comets, NEAs Sun

  25. Types of Orbits Low (LEO) Geosynchronous (GEO) Elliptical Transfer

  26. Opportunity: Fuel Depots • Low Earth Orbit is “halfway to anywhere” ... • ... but the other half still requires a lot of fuel !

  27. Opportunity: Hotels • Spin to provide artificial gravity • Zero-G sports arenas in central hub • Inflatable rooms • Centers of commerce • Earth/Moon views!

  28. Opportunity:Solar Power Satellites • 5x10 km, 30,000 tonne sats in geosynch orbit • 5 billion ground-watts (need ~10 trillion watts) • 98% of construction material could come from the Moon

  29. Opportunity:Space Elevator • Carbon nano-tubes • 1% cost to LEO? • 100,000 km length • Geosynchronous

  30. Destination: 15 LaGrange Points Earth-Sun Moon-Earth Mars-Sun L4, L5 stable Credit: Nasa

  31. HOW ??? Many Enablers...

  32. Reduced cost to LEO (rockets) • Government investment • Private investment • Prizes

  33. Propulsion Costs: It's all about the rockets!!! (for now) • Expendable (Delta, Atlas) • Reusable (Space Shuttle) • Future: Space Elevator ??????

  34. Jurist, Dinkin, Livingston, “When Physics, Economics, and Reality Colide,” 2005 (publication pending)

  35. Opportunity:Cheap Access to LEO • Cheap, throw-away rockets • High launch rate, reliability (insurance) • New launch sites (range fees) • Separate cargo from astronauts • Many companies...

  36. THE ROCKET EQUATION • Going anywhere requires “Delta-V” • Delta-V = ISP * ln( mfinal / minitial ) • Ways to cheat: use rocket stages or exotic fuels (both are expensive) • High Delta-V mission = High Cost

  37. STOP !! • Braking usually requires “Delta-V” • Most of your slim payload = fuel !!! • One way to cheat: Aerobraking • If your destination has an atmosphere, Delta-V and fuel for braking is NOT necessary • Planets have atmospheres! Go there!

  38. Government InvestmentRequires: • Public, bi-partisan support spanning multiple administrations • NASA's role: Science, technology development, early missions, and insurance (if all else fails) • Reasonable priority, funding • 10x private investment

  39. NASA's Vision forSpace Exploration (VSE): • $8 billion/year average investment • Moon landings in 2018 • ...then Mars (maybe) • Crew Exploration Vehicle • Heavy Lift Vehicle

  40. Private InvestmentRequires: • Short-term returns • Low risk • Elimination of the “giggle factor” • Strong leadership

  41. Returns (short, long) Home-building Land-building Trading & mining Agriculture Goods and services ANY Earthly business?!! • Transportation • Entertainment/media • Satellites • Energy production • Energy distribution • Investment • Science

  42. HOW: Prizes • Future X-Prizes • America's Challenge • Centennial Challenges - $20mil/year, 4 years • Total above: ~ $200 million • Economic impact: ~ $2 billion

  43. WHEN ??? Many Wild Guesses...

  44. Now! • Military satellites • Communications sats. • ISS (governmental) • Zero-G airplane rides • Space funerals • Planetary science • Media (space.com)

  45. Next 5 Years • Sub-orbital flights • Early hotel prototype • Lower cost rockets • Private-ISS (cargo) • Lunar mapping Sir Richard Branson, Virgin Galactic CEO

  46. Next 10 Years • Space (LEO) tourism • More hotel prototypes • Lower cost, big rockets • Private-ISS (humans) • Lunar site selection

  47. Next 20 Years • Lunar science outposts (USA, China, Russia) • Lunar tourist flights • First hotel in LEO • Private space stations • Mars site selection

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