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31.9 million Africans are infected with this life threatening blood-borne virus, first identified in the 1980s*, and for which there is currently no vaccine. Prevalence is 5.3% in Africa & the condition is sometimes transmitted sexually. Mother to child transmission is also possible. The extent of sexual transmission is not clear. Prevalence may be greater than 10% in Tanzania**.

What is the virus called?

* http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1415844/table/T1/

** http://bit.ly/qtjSC7


Hiv sexual and non sexual risks

HIV: Sexual and Non-Sexual Risks

“Mainland Tanzania has a generalized HIV epidemic and the primary mechanism for HIV transmission is unprotected heterosexual sex, which constitutes about 80% of all new infections.” (UNAIDS*)

Presentation to Kilimanjaro Clinical Research Institute

14 July 2011

Simon Collery – [email protected]

http://hivinkenya.blogspot.com

* http://bit.ly/qh3KsT


History

History

  • What has been happening to HIV in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda for the past 30 years?


Hypothetical hiv prevalence 1980 89 unaids data 1990 2007

Hypothetical HIV Prevalence (1980-89), UNAIDS Data (1990-2007)


Questions for unaids

Questions for UNAIDS

  • Was there a massive increase in ‘unsafe’ sexual behavior in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and if so, why did it occur?

  • And why did ‘unsafe’ sexual behavior decrease, equally dramatically, in the early to late 1990s?


What drives a hiv epidemic

What ‘Drives’ a HIV Epidemic?

According to UNAIDS and much of the HIV industry:

  • Men

  • Commercial Sex Work

  • Concurrency

    But many HIV+ people have had no sex or always use protection (THMIS)*

* http://www.tacaids.go.tz/dmdocuments/THMIS%202007-08.pdf


Hiv prevalence 15 49 years by age and sex tanzania ais 03 04

HIV Prevalence 15-49 Years by Age and Sex (Tanzania AIS 03-04)

http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pub_details.cfm?ID=496&ctry_id=39&SrchTp=ctry&flag=sur&cn=Tanzania


More questions

More questions

  • Sexual practices vary: do they vary by tribe?

  • What difference does male circumcision make; in Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Cameroon?*

  • What difference does female circumcision make (Kenya DHS)?

  • Why does male to female ratio vary so much (see slide 10)?

  • What about in Tanzania (see slide 10)?

* https://sites.google.com/site/davidgisselquist/chapter7 (Table 7.4)


Hiv prevalence m f ratio male circumcision by ethnic group

HIV Prevalence M/F Ratio & Male Circumcision by Ethnic Group

Compiled from http://www.measuredhs.com data and http://marsgroupkenya.org/census


Tanzania hiv prevalence male female ratio 2007

Tanzania HIV Prevalence & Male/Female Ratio (2007)

Tanzania DHS http://bit.ly/q9HUZ8


Why do we think non sexual hiv transmission so unlikely see slide 12

Why do we think non-sexual HIV transmission so unlikely (see slide 12)?

  • Are African health services able to guarantee that conditions are sterile? Even UNAIDS doesn’t believe that*

  • How does the distribution of HIV positive people in East Africa compare to access to health facilities? HIV is highest in urban areas and areas with good roads**

  • Up to 90% of pediatric blood transfusions are from donors in Tz, not from the blood bank***

* http://data.unaids.org/Publications/IRC-pub06/jc975-livinginworldaids_en.pdf

** [SA article on spatial clusters]

*** http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2734527/


Model used to estimate modes of transmission

Model Used to Estimate Modes of Transmission

http://data.unaids.org/pub/BaseDocument/2007/20090407_mot_genepi_blank_en.xls


East africa s health services

East Africa’s Health Services

  • Are UNAIDS right to warn UN employees to avoid health facilities in African countries?

    "We in the UN system are unlikely to become infected [with HIV through contaminated blood] since the UN-system medical services take all the necessary precautions and use only new or sterilized equipment. Extra precautions should be taken, however, when on travel away from UN approved medical facilities, as the UN cannot ensure the safety of blood supplies or injection equipment obtained elsewhere.“*

  • If UNAIDS are right to be cautions, why do they not warn Africans about the risks?

* http://data.unaids.org/Publications/IRC-pub06/jc975-livinginworldaids_en.pdf


Kenya service provision assessment items available for infection control

Kenya Service Provision Assessment – Items Available for Infection Control

http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/SPA17/SPA17.pdf


Kenya service provision assessment supplies available for infection control

Kenya Service Provision Assessment – Supplies Available for Infection Control

http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/SPA17/SPA17.pdf


Other non sexual hiv transmission routes

Other Non-Sexual HIV Transmission Routes

  • Tattooing, ear and body piercing

  • Manicure and pedicure

  • Some traditional medical practices

  • Shaving and hairdressing

  • Non-professional services, such as tooth-pulling, wound treatment, etc


Factors that increase vulnerability to hiv

Factors that Increase Vulnerability to HIV

  • Co-factors such as schistosomiasis, malaria, TB and other coinfections (Cohen, Modjarrad, Stillwaggon)

  • Compromised immunity due to high disease burden and malnutrition (Stillwaggon)

Cohen http://bit.ly/qXsraJ

Modjarrad http://1.usa.gov/oLQFyT

Stillwaggon http://1.usa.gov/r3xhAe


What can tanzania do

What can Tanzania do?

  • Educate and warn people about non-sexual HIV transmission risks, not just sexual risks

  • Investigate instances of non-sexual HIV transmission, especially in infants/children

  • Improve conditions in health and cosmetic facilities (including pharmacies and traditional settings)

  • Trust your fellow Africans when they enumerate the risks they have faced


What can health facilities do

What can Health Facilities do?

  • If people say they have faced no sexual risks, find out what risks they did face

  • Test their partner (sexual AND non-sexual) or other people close to them who may be infected (‘partner tracing’)

  • If an infant is infected, test their mother; sometimes the mother is negative – why?

  • If a married woman is infected, is her husband? And is he infected with the same HIV type or a different one?


Thank you

Thank You

Please feel free to contact me if you would like further information:

Simon Collery

[email protected]

http://hivinkenya.blogspot.com


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